Spatio-temporal variability of binary weather patterns and precipitation amounts of short time intervals during winter period over the north-west Himalaya (NWH)
- 92 Downloads
Spatio-temporal variability of binary weather patterns (precipitation event/no-precipitation event) and precipitation amounts of short time intervals of 15, 24, 48 and 72 hours (h) are examined by analysing data on the observed precipitation amount of 3377 common days of different winters (winter 1993–winter 2015) at 12 stations in the north-west Himalaya (NWH). Surface meteorological variables over the NWH are collected daily at 0300 and 1200 UTC and data on the precipitation amount collected daily at 0300 UTC are taken to conduct this study. Data on the precipitation amount collected at 0300 UTC daily represent the cumulative precipitation amount of a short time interval of the previous 15 h (1200–0300 UTC) hence the precipitation amount of the 15 h time interval is considered in addition to the precipitation amounts of 24, 48 and 72 h time intervals to examine the Spatio-temporal variability of the precipitation amounts at 12 stations over the NWH. The spatio-temporal variability in the binary weather patterns of short time intervals is examined by computing the normalised percentage differences in the observed precipitation events of short time intervals at 11 stations from corresponding observed precipitation events at a reference station and Spatio-temporal variability in the precipitation amount of short time interval at 12 stations is examined by computing Mean Absolute Differences (MADs) and Root Mean Square Differences (RMSDs) of observed precipitation amounts of short time intervals at each station from corresponding observed precipitation amounts at a reference station. Normalised percentage difference in precipitation events and MAD (RMSD) of the precipitation amount of 24 h time intervals at 11 stations from a reference station fall in the range (−) 50.0%–(+) 20.7% and 4.2–7.2 mm (12.2–18.5 mm), respectively. The maximum difference in binary weather patterns is found for 24 h time interval and simultaneous precipitation events are not found up to 72 h time interval at 12 stations over the NWH. The spatial variability of binary weather patterns is found to decrease and the spatial variability of the precipitation amount is found to increase with the increasing length of short time intervals, i.e., 15–72 h. These findings show that binary weather patterns and precipitation amounts of short time intervals exhibit large Spatio-temporal variability over the NWH. Results of this study can be useful for various applications directly (or indirectly) influenced by weather and/or precipitation amounts of short time intervals over the NWH during the winter period.
KeywordsWeather weather forecasting spatial variability and north-west Himalaya
The authors are thankful to Shri Naresh Gupta, Director, Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), for his constant encouragement during this study. The sincere efforts of the Scientists and Technical Staff of SASE, India, who collected data under the harsh climatic conditions of the NWH are gratefully acknowledged. The authors are also thankful to the anonymous reviewers whose comments helped to improve the quality of the manuscript.
- Arora M, Singh P, Goel N K and Singh R D 2006 Spatial distribution and seasonal variability of rainfall in a mountainous basin in the Himalayan region; Water Resour. Manag. 20 489–508.Google Scholar
- Bhutiyani M R, Kale V S and Pawar N J 2008 Changing streamflow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20th century; Curr. Sci. 95 618–626.Google Scholar
- Bhutiyani M R, Kale V S and Pawar N J 2009 Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006; Int. J. Clim. 30 535–548.Google Scholar
- Das T, Bárdossy A and Zehe E 2006 Influence of spatial variability of precipitation in a distributed rainfall–runoff model; In: Predictions in ungauged basins: Promise and progress (proceedings of symposium S7 held during the seventh IAHS scientific assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005), IAHS Publ, Vol. 303, pp. 195–203.Google Scholar
- Dimri A P and Das S K 2006 Winter temperature and precipitation trends in the Siachen glacier; Curr. Sci. 98 1620–1625.Google Scholar
- Fowler H J and Archer D R 2005 Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus basin and implications for water resources; In: Regional hydrological impacts of climatic change – Impact assessment and decision making (proceedings of symposium S6 held during the seventh IAHS scientific assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005), IAHS Publ, Vol. 295, pp. 131–138.Google Scholar
- Hatwar H R, Yadav B P and Rama Rao Y V 2005 Prediction of Western disturbances and associated weather over Western Himalayas; Curr. Sci. 88 913–920.Google Scholar
- Rangachary N and Bandyopadhyay B K 1987 An analysis of the synoptic weather pattern associated with extensive avalanching in Western Himalaya; In: Avalanche formation, movement and effects (proceedings of the Davos symposium, September 1986), IAHS Publ., Vol. 162, pp. 311–316.Google Scholar
- Singh D and Ganju A 2005 Expert system for prediction of avalanches; Curr. Sci. 94 1076–1081.Google Scholar
- Srinivasan K, Ganju A and Sharma S S 2005 Usefulness of meso-scale weather forecast for avalanche forecasting; Curr. Sci. 88 921–926.Google Scholar