New Equations for Predicting Postoperative Risk in Patients with Hip Fracture

  • Jun HiroseEmail author
  • Junji Ide
  • Hiroki Irie
  • Kenshi Kikukawa
  • Hiroshi Mizuta
Original Article


Predicting the postoperative course of patients with hip fractures would be helpful for surgical planning and risk management. We therefore established equations to predict the morbidity and mortality rates in candidates for hip fracture surgery using the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) risk-scoring system. First we evaluated the correlation between the E-PASS scores and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates in all 722 patients surgically treated for hip fractures during the study period (Group A). Next we established equations to predict morbidity and mortality rates. We then applied these equations to all 633 patients with hip fractures treated at seven other hospitals (Group B) and compared the predicted and actual morbidity and mortality rates to assess the predictive ability of the E-PASS and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems. The ratio of actual to predicted morbidity and mortality rates was closer to 1.0 with the E-PASS than the POSSUM system. Our data suggest the E-PASS scoring system is useful for defining postoperative risk and its underlying algorithm accurately predicts morbidity and mortality rates in patients with hip fractures before surgery. This information then can be used to manage their condition and potentially improve treatment outcomes.

Level of Evidence: Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.


Postoperative Morbidity Inhospital Mortality Postoperative Risk Displace Femoral Neck Fracture Comprehensive Risk Score 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



We thank Drs. Hiroshi Usui, Yuri Yabuki (NHO Tokyo Medical Center), Yukio Nakatsuchi, Yutaka Tateiwa (NHO Nagano National Hospital), Toshiaki Miyahara, Taro Mawatari (NHO Kyusyu Medical Center), Satoshi Motokawa, Kiyofumi Mitsutake (NHO Nagasaki Medical Center), Kazuhiko Ihara (NHO Beppu Medical Center), Satoshi Maeda (NHO Kumamoto Medical Center), and Tateki Segata (NHO Kumamoto Saisyunso National Hospital) for supplying patient data. We also thank Dr. Haga (NHO Kumamoto Medical Center) for technical advice on statistics.


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Copyright information

© The Association of Bone and Joint Surgeons® 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jun Hirose
    • 1
    Email author
  • Junji Ide
    • 1
  • Hiroki Irie
    • 1
  • Kenshi Kikukawa
    • 1
  • Hiroshi Mizuta
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Orthopaedic and Neuro-Musculoskeletal Surgery, Faculty of Medical and Pharmaceutical SciencesKumamoto UniversityKumamotoJapan

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