Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research®

, Volume 467, Issue 10, pp 2606–2612 | Cite as

Future Young Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement: National Projections from 2010 to 2030

  • Steven M. Kurtz
  • Edmund Lau
  • Kevin OngEmail author
  • Ke Zhao
  • Michael Kelly
  • Kevin J. Bozic
Symposium: ABJS Carl T. Brighton Workshop on Health Policy Issues in Orthopaedic Surgery


Previous projections of total joint replacement (TJR) volume have not quantified demand for TJR surgery in young patients (< 65 years old). We developed projections for demand of TJR for the young patient population in the United States. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify primary and revision TJRs between 1993 and 2006, as a function of age, gender, race, and census region. Surgery prevalence was modeled using Poisson regression, allowing for different rates for each population subgroup over time. If the historical growth trajectory of joint replacement surgeries continues, demand for primary THA and TKA among patients less than 65 years old was projected to exceed 50% of THA and TKA patients of all ages by 2011 and 2016, respectively. Patients less than 65 years old were projected to exceed 50% of the revision TKA patient population by 2011. This study underscores the major contribution that young patients may play in the future demand for primary and revision TJR surgery.

Level of Evidence: Level II, prognostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.


Total Knee Arthroplasty Nationwide Inpatient Sample Total Joint Replacement Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty Previous Projection 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© The Association of Bone and Joint Surgeons 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Steven M. Kurtz
    • 1
  • Edmund Lau
    • 1
  • Kevin Ong
    • 1
    Email author
  • Ke Zhao
    • 1
  • Michael Kelly
    • 2
  • Kevin J. Bozic
    • 2
  1. 1.Exponent, Inc.PhiladelphiaUSA
  2. 2.Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Institute for Health Policy StudiesUniversity of California, San FranciscoSan FranciscoUSA

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