Current HIV/AIDS Reports

, Volume 12, Issue 2, pp 196–206 | Cite as

Epidemiological Trends for HIV in Southern Africa: Implications for Reaching the Elimination Targets

  • Brian G. Williams
  • Eleanor Gouws
  • Pierre Somse
  • Mpho Mmelesi
  • Chibwe Lwamba
  • Trouble Chikoko
  • Erika Fazito
  • Mohamed Turay
  • Eva Kiwango
  • Pepukai Chikukwa
  • Henry Damisoni
  • Michael Gboun
The Global Epidemic (SH Vermund, Section Editor)
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Topical Collection on The Global Epidemic


Southern Africa is the region worst affected by HIV in the world and accounts for one third of the global burden of HIV. Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 and ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 depend on success in this region. We review epidemiological trends in each country in southern Africa with respect to the prevalence, incidence, mortality, coverage of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and TB notification rates, to better understand progress in controlling HIV and TB and to determine what needs to be done to reach the UNAIDS targets. Significant progress has been made in controlling HIV. In all countries in the region, the prevalence of HIV in people not on ART, the incidence of HIV, AIDS-related mortality and, in most countries, TB notification rates, are falling. In some countries, the risk of infection began to fall before biomedical interventions such as ART became widely available as a result of effective prevention measures or people’s awareness of, and response to, the epidemic but the reasons for these declines remain uncertain. Some countries have achieved better levels of ART coverage than others, but all are in a position to reach the 2020 and 2030 targets if they accelerate the roll-out of ART and of targeted prevention efforts. Achieving the HIV treatment targets will further reduce the incidence of HIV-related TB, but efforts to control TB in HIV-negative people must be improved and strengthened.


HIV TB Eastern and Southern Africa Ending AIDS UNAIDS targets ART 



The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNAIDS.

Compliance with Ethics Guidelines

Conflict of Interest

Brian G. Williams, Eleanor Gouws, Pierre Somse, Mpho Mmelesi, Chibwe Lwamba, Trouble Chikoko, Erika Fazito, Mohamed Turay, Eva Kiwango, Pepukai Chikukwa, Henry Damisoni and Michael Gboun declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Human and Animal Rights and Informed Consent

This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors.

Supplementary material

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ESM 1 (DOC 15285 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Brian G. Williams
    • 1
    • 2
  • Eleanor Gouws
    • 3
  • Pierre Somse
    • 3
  • Mpho Mmelesi
    • 4
  • Chibwe Lwamba
    • 5
  • Trouble Chikoko
    • 6
  • Erika Fazito
    • 7
  • Mohamed Turay
    • 8
  • Eva Kiwango
    • 9
  • Pepukai Chikukwa
    • 10
  • Henry Damisoni
    • 11
  • Michael Gboun
    • 12
  1. 1.Reproductive Health and HIV InstituteUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
  2. 2.South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and AnalysisUniversity of StellenboschStellenboschSouth Africa
  3. 3.UNAIDS Regional Support Team for Eastern and Southern AfricaJohannesburgSouth Africa
  4. 4.UNAIDS Country OfficeGaboroneBotswana
  5. 5.UNAIDS Country OfficeMaseruLesotho
  6. 6.UNAIDS Country OfficeLilongweMalawi
  7. 7.UNAIDS Country OfficeMaputoMozambique
  8. 8.UNAIDS Country OfficeWindhoekNamibia
  9. 9.UNAIDS Country OfficePretoriaSouth Africa
  10. 10.UNAIDS Country OfficeMbabaneBotswana
  11. 11.UNAIDS Country OfficeLusakaZambia
  12. 12.UNAIDS Country OfficeHarareZimbabwe

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