Irish Journal of Medical Science

, Volume 179, Issue 2, pp 187–195 | Cite as

Novel predictive tools for Irish radical prostatectomy pathological outcomes: development and validation

  • D. M. Fanning
  • F. Yue
  • J. M. Fitzpatrick
  • R. W. G. Watson
Original Article

Abstract

Aims

We developed and validated prostate cancer predictive models for Irish patients, allowing individualised predictions of radical prostatectomy pathological outcomes.

Methods

Retrospective review of the Irish Prostate Cancer Research Consortium database from 2003 to 2008 was performed. Two predictive models were formulated: a replica of the Partin tables (n = 169) and a look-up table based on PSA and biopsy Gleason Score (n = 253). Clinico-pathological parameters were compared to the Partin data set. Internal validation was performed.

Results

In total, 70% of patients were at clinical stage T1c. 5.8% had a PSA less than 4.1 ng/ml, whereas 25% of the Partin patients had a PSA in this range. Maximal predictive accuracy was seen for seminal vesicle invasion (area under the curve = 72%). Prediction of extra-prostatic extension and lymph node involvement was only equivalent to that of a chance phenomenon.

Conclusions

Our current results do not support the introduction of the formulated predictive models into routine clinical practice.

Keywords

Nomogram Prognosis Prostate cancer Prostatectomy Tumour staging 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank the members of the Irish Prostate Cancer Research Consortium, particularly Mr. R. Power from Beaumont Hospital, Mr. T. Lynch from St. James’s Hospital and Lakshmi Parameswaran for their support. Funding for this research was acquired from the Irish Cancer Society, the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland and the British Urology Foundation. The aforementioned funding sources played no role in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; or in the decision to submit the paper for publication.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest.

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Copyright information

© Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. M. Fanning
    • 1
  • F. Yue
    • 1
    • 2
  • J. M. Fitzpatrick
    • 3
  • R. W. G. Watson
    • 1
  1. 1.UCD School of Medicine and Medical Science, Conway Institute of Biomolecular and Biomedical ResearchUniversity College DublinDublin 4Ireland
  2. 2.UCD School of Mathematical SciencesUniversity College DublinDublin 4Ireland
  3. 3.UCD School of Medicine and Medical ScienceMater Misericordiae University HospitalDublin 7Ireland

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