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Data-Based Models for the Prediction of Dam Behaviour: A Review and Some Methodological Considerations

  • Fernando Salazar
  • Rafael Morán
  • Miguel Á. Toledo
  • Eugenio Oñate
Original Paper

Abstract

Predictive models are an important element in dam safety analysis. They provide an estimate of the dam response faced with a given load combination, which can be compared with the actual measurements to draw conclusions about dam safety. In addition to numerical finite element models, statistical models based on monitoring data have been used for decades for this purpose. In particular, the hydrostatic-season-time method is fully implemented in engineering practice, although some limitations have been pointed out. In other fields of science, powerful tools such as neural networks and support vector machines have been developed, which make use of observed data for interpreting complex systems . This paper contains a review of statistical and machine-learning data-based predictive models, which have been applied to dam safety analysis . Some aspects to take into account when developing analysis of this kind, such as the selection of the input variables, its division into training and validation sets, and the error analysis, are discussed. Most of the papers reviewed deal with one specific output variable of a given dam typology and the majority also lack enough validation data. As a consequence, although results are promising, there is a need for further validation and assessment of generalisation capability. Future research should also focus on the development of criteria for data pre-processing and model application.

Keywords

Neural Network Model Radial Displacement Impulse Response Function Leakage Flow ANFIS Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, MINECO) through the projects iComplex (IPT-2012-0813-390000) and AIDA (BIA2013-49018-C2-1-R and BIA2013- 49018-C2-2-R).

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Copyright information

© CIMNE, Barcelona, Spain 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CIMNE Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en EnginyeriaUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)BarcelonaSpain
  2. 2.Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulics, Energy and EnvironmentTechnical University of Madrid (UPM)MadridSpain

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