Journal of Central South University

, Volume 19, Issue 10, pp 2901–2909 | Cite as

Multimedia health risk assessment: A case study of scenario-uncertainty

  • Fei Li (李飞)
  • Jin-hui Huang (黄瑾辉)
  • Guang-ming Zeng (曾光明)
  • Xing-zhong Yuan (袁兴中)
  • Jie Liang (梁婕)
  • Xiao-yu Wang (王晓钰)


Assisted by framework of multimedia total exposure model for hazard waste sites (CalTOX), potential influences of scenario-uncertainty on multimedia health risk assessment (MHRA) and decision-making were quantitatively analyzed in a primary extent under the Chinese scenario case by deliberately varying the two key scenario-elements, namely conceptual exposure pathways combination and aim receptor cohorts choice. Results show that the independent change of one exposure pathway or receptor cohort could lead variation of MHRA results in the range of 3.6×10−6-1.4×10−5 or 6.7×10−6–2.3×10−5. And randomly simultaneous change of those two elements could lead variation of MHRA results at the range of 7.7×10−8-2.3×10−5. On the basis of the corresponding sensitivity analysis, pathways which made a valid contribution to the final modeling risk value occupied only 16.7% of all considered pathways. Afterwards, comparative analysis between influence of parameter-uncertainty and influence of scenario-uncertainty was made. In consideration of interrelationship among all types of uncertainties and financial reasonability during MHRA procedures, the integrated method how to optimize the entire procedures of MHRA was presented innovatively based on sensitivity analysis, scenario-discussion and nest Monte Carlo simulation or fuzzy mathematics.

Key words

scenario-uncertainty multimedia health risk assessment (MHRA) comparative analysis parameter-uncertainty 


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Copyright information

© Central South University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Fei Li (李飞)
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jin-hui Huang (黄瑾辉)
    • 1
    • 2
  • Guang-ming Zeng (曾光明)
    • 1
    • 2
  • Xing-zhong Yuan (袁兴中)
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jie Liang (梁婕)
    • 1
    • 2
  • Xiao-yu Wang (王晓钰)
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.College of Environmental Science and EngineeringHunan UniversityChangshaChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control of Ministry of EducationHunan UniversityChangshaChina

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