Smart model for accurate estimation of solar radiation

  • Lazhar Achour
  • Malek Bouharkat
  • Ouarda Assas
  • Omar Behar
Research Article
First Online:
Received:
Accepted:
  • 25 Downloads

Abstract

Prediction of solar radiation has drawn increasing attention in the recent years. This is because of the lack of solar radiation measurement stations. In the present work, 14 solar radiation models have been used to assess monthly global solar radiation on a horizontal surface as function of three parameters: extraterrestrial solar irradiance (G 0), duration sunshine (S) and daylight hours (S 0). Since it has been observed that each model is adequate for some months of the year, one model cannot be used for the prediction of the whole year. Therefore, a smart hybrid system is proposed which selects, based on the intelligent rules, the most suitable prediction model of the 14 models listed in this study. For the test and evaluation of the proposed models, Tamanrasset city, which is located in the south of Algeria, is selected for this study. The meteorological data sets of five years (2000–2004) have been collected from the Algerian National Office of Meteorology (NOM), and two spatial databases. The results indicate that the new hybrid model is capable of predicting the monthly global solar radiation, which offers an excellent measuring accuracy of R 2 values ranging from 93% to 97% in this location.

Keywords

global solar radiation statistical indicator hybrid model spatial database correlation coefficients 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. 1.
    Angstrom A. Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1924, 50(210): 121–126Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Prescott J A. Evaporation from water surface in relation to solar radiation. Transactions of the Royal Society of Australia, 1940, 64: 114–125Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Glover J, McCulloch J S J. The empirical relation between solar radiation and hours of sunshine. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1958, 84(360): 172–175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Chegaar M, Chibani A. Global solar radiation estimation in Algeria. Energy Conversion and Management, 2001, 42(8): 967–973CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Salmi M, MialheMC P. A collection of models for the estimation of global solar radiation in Algeria. Energy Sources Part B Economics Planning & Policy, 2011, 6(2): 187–191CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Koussa M, Malek A, Haddadi M. Statistical comparison of monthly mean hourly and daily diffuse and global solar irradiation models and a Simulink program development for various Algerian climates. Energy Conversion and Management, 2009, 50(5): 1227–1235CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Mecibah M S, Boukelia T E, Tahtah R, Gairaa K. Introducing the best model for estimation the monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (case study: Algeria). Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014, 36(5): 194–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Khatib T, Mohamed A, Sopian K. A review of solar energy modeling techniques. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012, 16(5): 2864–2869CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Mellit A, Kalogirou S A, Shaari S, Salhi H, Hadj Arab A. Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas: application for sizing a stand-alone PV system. Renewable Energy, 2008, 33(7): 1570–1590CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Yacef R, Mellit A, Belaid S, Sen Z. New combined models for estimating daily global solar radiation from measured air temperature in semi-arid climates: application in Ghardaia, Algeria. Energy Conversion and Management, 2014, 79: 606–615CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Voyant C, Muselli M, Paoli C, Nivet M L. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation. Energy, 2012, 39(1): 341–355CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Wu Y, Wang J Z. A novel hybrid model based on artificial neural networks for solar radiation prediction. Renewable Energy, 2016, 89: 268–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Güçlü Y S, Dabanli I, Sisman E, Sen Z. HARmonic-LINear (HarLin) model for solar irradiation estimation. Renewable Energy, 2015, 81: 209–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Hassan G E, Youssef M E, Mohamed Z E, Ali M A, Hanafy A A. New temperature-based models for predicting global solar radiation. Applied Energy, 2016, 179: 437–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Ayodele T R, Ogunjuyigbe A S O, Lund H, Kaiser M J. Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index. Energy, 2015, 90: 1733–1742CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Belaid S, Mellit A. Prediction of daily and mean monthly global solar radiation using support vector machine in an arid climate. Energy Conversion and Management, 2016, 118: 105–118CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Zou L, Wang L, Xia L, Lin A, Hu B, Zhu H. Prediction and comparison of solar radiation using improved empirical models and Adaptive Neuro–Fuzzy Inference Systems. Renewable Energy, 2017, 106(5): 343–353CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Zou L, Wang L, Lin A, Zhu H, Peng Y, Zhao Z. Estimation of global solar radiation using an artificial neural network based on an interpolation technique in southeast China. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar–Terrestrial Physics, 2016, 146: 110–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Duffie J A, Beckman W A, Mcgowan J. Solar engineering of thermal processes. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, 1980, 116 (1): 549Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    Akinoglu B G, Ecevit A A. A further comparison and discussion of sunshine based models to estimate global solar radiation. Energy, 1990, 15(10): 865–872CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Bahel V, Bakhsh H, Srinivasan R. A correlation for estimation of global solar radiation. Energy, 1987, 12(2): 131–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Ampratwum D B, Dorvlo A S S. Estimation of solar radiation from the number of sunshine hours. Applied Energy, 1999, 63(3): 161–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Elagib N A, Mansell M G. New approaches for estimating global solar radiation across Sudan. Energy Conversion and Management, 2000, 41(5): 419–434CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Bakirci K. Correlations for estimation of daily global solar radiation with hours of bright sunshine in Turkey. Energy, 2009, 34(4): 485–501CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Badescu V, Gueymard C A, Cheval S, Oprea C, Baciu M, Dumitrescu A, Iacobescu F, Milos I, Rada C. Accuracy and sensitivity analysis for 54 models of computing hourly diffuse solar irradiation on clear sky. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 111(3–4): 379–399CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Behar O, Khellaf A, Mohammedi K. Comparison of solar radiation models and their validation under Algerian climate–the case of direct irradiance. Energy Conversion and Management, 2015, 98(1): 236–251CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lazhar Achour
    • 1
  • Malek Bouharkat
    • 1
  • Ouarda Assas
    • 2
  • Omar Behar
    • 3
  1. 1.Electrical Engineering DepartmentUniversity of Batna 2FesdisAlgeria
  2. 2.Laboratory Pure and Applied Mathematics (LPAM)University of M’silaM’silaAlgeria
  3. 3.University of M’Hammed Bougara, UMBBBoumerdesAlgeria

Personalised recommendations