Precipitation data and their uncertainty as input for rainfall-induced shallow landslide models
Physical models used to forecast the temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. Owing to the existing measuring technology and our knowledge of the physical laws controlling landslide initiation, model uncertainties are due to an inability to accurately quantify the model input parameters and rainfall forcing data. An uncertainty analysis of slope instability prediction provides a rationale for refining the geotechnical models. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope Stability-Probabilistic (TRIGRS-P) model adopts a probabilistic approach to compute the changes in the Factor of Safety (FS) due to rainfall infiltration. Slope Infiltration Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) is a simplified physical model for landslide prediction. The new code (SLIDE-P) is also modified by adopting the same probabilistic approach to allow values of the SLIDE model input parameters to be sampled randomly. This study examines the relative importance of rainfall variability and the uncertainty in the other variables that determine slope stability. The precipitation data from weather stations, China Meteorological Administration Land Assimilation System 2.0 (CLDAS2.0), China Meteorological Forcing Data set precipitation (CMFD), and China geological hazard bulletin are used to drive TRIGRS, SLIDE, TRIGRS-P and SLIDE-P models. The TRIGRS-P and SLIDE-P models are used to generate the input samples and to calculate the values of FS. The outputs of several model runs with varied input parameters and rainfall forcings are analyzed statistically. A comparison suggests that there are significant differences in the simulations of the TRIGRS-P and SLIDE-P models. Although different precipitation data sets are used, the simulation results of TRIGRS-P are more concentrated. This study can inform the potential use of numerical models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of regional rainfall-induced shallow landslides.
Keywordsrainfall-induced landslide SLIDE TRIGRS FS
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
This study was funded by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1506600), the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology Project (No. 2015CB452806), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41475044), and the Basic Research Special Project of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (No. 2019Z008). There are no conflicts of interest to report. We gratefully acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for reviewing the manuscript and providing constructive comments and suggestions.
- Baum R L, Savage W Z, Godt J W (2008). TRIGRS-A FORTRAN program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis, Version 2.0. USGS Open File Report, 2008–1159Google Scholar
- Chen T, Feng Z, Chuang Y (2011). An application of TRIGRS on slope failture probability analyses—a case study of Aowanda. J Chin Soil Water Con, 42(3): 228–239Google Scholar
- Liao Z, Hong Y, Kirschbaum D F, Adler R, Gourley J, Wooten R (2011). Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: a case study in Macon County, North Carolina. Nat Hazards, 58(1): 325–339CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Pack R, Tarboton D, Goodwin C N (1998). Terrain Stability Mapping with SINMAP, Technical Description and Users Guide for Version 1.00Google Scholar
- Shi C, Jiang L, Zhang T, Xu B, Han S (2014). Status and Plans of CMA Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) Project. Paper presented at EGU General Assembly Conference AbstractsGoogle Scholar
- The Ministry of Land and Resources (2010). China Geological Hazard Bulletin. Beijing: The Ministry Of Land and ResourcesGoogle Scholar