Abstract
Snow avalanche is a serious threat to the safety of roads in alpine mountains. In the western Tianshan Mountains, large scale avalanches occur every year and affect road safety. There is an urgent need to identify the characteristics of triggering factors for avalanche activity in this region to improve road safety and the management of natural hazards. Based on the observation of avalanche activity along the national road G218 in the western Tianshan Mountains, avalanche event data in combination with meteorological, snowpack and earthquake data were collected and analyzed. The snow climate of the mountain range was examined using a recently developed snow climate classification scheme, and triggering conditions of snow avalanche in different snow climate regions were compared. The results show that snowfall is the most common triggering factor for a natural avalanche and there is high probability of avalanche release with snowfall exceeding 20.4 mm during a snowfall period. Consecutive rise in temperature within three days and daily mean temperature reaching 0.5°C in the following day imply a high probability of temperaturerise-triggered avalanche release. Earthquakes have a significant impact on the formation of large size avalanches in the area. For the period 2011–2017, five cases were identified as a consequence of earthquake with magnitudes of 3.3≤ML≤5.1 and source-to-site distances of 19~139 km. The Tianshan Mountains are characterized by a continental snow climate with lower snow density, lower snow shear strength and high proportion depth hoar, which explains that both the snowfall and temperature for triggering avalanche release in the continental snow climate of the Tianshan Mountains are lower than that in maritime snow climate and transitional snow climate regions. The findings help forecast avalanche release for mitigating avalanche disaster and assessing the risk of avalanche disaster.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abe O, Xu J, Liu J, et al. (2006) Shear strength of natural and artificial depth hoar layers. ISSW 2006 proceedings, Marmot, CO. pp 7–14.
Ancey C, Bain V (2015) Dynamics of glide avalanches and snow gliding. Reviews of Geophysics 53(3): 745–784. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000491
Armstrong RL, Armstrong BR (1987) Snow and avalanche climates of the western United States: a comparison of maritime, intermountain and continental conditions. International Association of Hydrological Sciences Publication 162. pp 281–294.
Atwater MM (1954) Snow avalanches. Scientific American, 190(1): 26–31. https://doi.org/www.jstor.org/stable/24944440
Baggi S, Schweizer J (2009) Characteristics of wet–snow avalanche activity: 20 years of observations from a high alpine valley (Dischma, Switzerland). Natural Hazards 50: 97–108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9322-7
Ballesteros–Cánovas J A, Trappmann D, Madrigal–González J, et al. (2018) Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(13): 3410–3415. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716913115
Barbolini M, Cappabianca F, Sailer R (2004) Empirical estimate of vulnerability relations for use in snow avalanche risk assessment. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment 77. https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK040481
Birkeland KW, Johnson RF (1999) The stuffblock snow stability test: comparability with the rutschblock, usefulness in different snow climates, and repeatability between observers. Cold Regions Science and Technology 30(1–3): 115–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(99)00015-4
Chen H, Cui P, Chen J, et al. (2016) Effects of spillway types on debris flow trajectory and scour behind a sabo dam. Journal of Mountain Science 13(2): 203–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-015-3607-6
Colbeck SC (1979) Grain clusters in wet snow. Journal of Colloid and Interface Science 72(3): 371–384. https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9797(79)90340-0
Conway H, Raymond CF (1993) Snow stability during rain. Journal of Glaciology 39(133): 635–642. https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000016531
Conway H, Wilbour C (1999) Evolution of snow slope stability during storms. Cold Regions Science and Technology 30(1–3): 67–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(99)00009-9
De Amorim RC (2015) Feature relevance in ward’s hierarchical clustering using the L p norm. Journal of Classification 32(1): 46–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00357-015-9167-1
Faillettaz J, Funk M, Vincent C (2015) Avalanching glacier instabilities: Review on processes and early warning perspectives. Reviews of Geophysics 53(2): 203–224. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000466
Föhn P, Stoffel M, Bartelt P (2002) Formation and forecasting of large (catastrophic) new snow avalanches. In Proceedings of the 2002 International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, BC. pp 141–148
Föhn PMB (1987) The stability index and various triggering mechanisms. International Association of Hydrological Sciences Publication 162. pp 195–214.
Fuchs S, Röthlisberger V, Thaler T, et al. (2017) Natural hazard management from a coevolutionary perspective: Exposure and policy response in the European Alps. Annals of the American Association of Geographers 107(2): 382–392. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1235494
Fukuzawa T, Akitaya E (1993) Depth–hoar crystal growth in the surface layer under high temperature gradient. Annals of Glaciology 18: 39–45. https://doi.org/10.3189/S026030550001123X
Gauthier D, Brown C, Jamieson B (2010) Modeling strength and stability in storm snow for slab avalanche forecasting. Cold Regions Science and Technology 62(2–3): 107–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2010.04.004
Gauthier F, Germain D, Hétu B (2017) Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada. Natural Hazards 89(1): 201–232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2959-3
Germain D, Filion L, Hétu B (2009) Snow avalanche regime and climatic conditions in the Chic–Choc Range, eastern Canada. Climatic Change 92(1–2): 141–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9439-4
Graveline MH, Germain D (2016) Ice–block fall and snow avalanche hazards in northern Gaspésie (eastern Canada): Triggering weather scenarios and process interactions. Cold Regions Science and Technology 123: 81–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2015.11.012
Guo L, Li L (2015) Variation of the proportion of precipitation occurring as snow in the Tian Shan Mountains, China. International Journal of Climatology 35(7): 1379–1393. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4063
Hachikubo A, Akitaya E (1997) Effect of wind on surface hoar growth on snow. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 102(D4): 4367–4373. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD03456.
Haegeli P, McClung DM (2007) Expanding the snow–climate classification with avalanche–relevant information: initial description of avalanche winter regimes for southwestern Canada. Journal of Glaciology 53(181): 266–276. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756507782202801
Hageli P, McClung DM (2003) Avalanche characteristics of a transitional snow climate—Columbia Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. Cold Regions Science and Technology 37(3): 255–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(03)00069-7
Hirashima H, Nishimura K, Yamaguchi S, et al. (2008) Avalanche forecasting in a heavy snowfall area using the snowpack model. Cold Regions Science and Technology 51(2–3): 191–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.05.013
Hong W, Wei W, Liu M, et al. (2014) Metamorphism and microstructure of seasonal snow: Single layer tracking in Western Tianshan, China. Journal of Mountain Science 11(2): 496–506. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2815-1
Hu RJ, Ma H, Jiang FQ (1997) Geographical environment in the area of Tianshan Station for Snow & Avalanche Research, Yili, Xinjiang, China. Arid Land Geography 20(2): 25–33. (In Chinese with English abstract)
Hu RJ, Ma H, Wang G (1992) An outline of avalanches in the Tien Shan mountains. Annals of Glaciology 16: 7–10. https://doi.org/10.3189/1992AoG16-1-7-10
Hu RJ (1985) On basic characteristic of seasonal avalanche on mountains, Xinjiang. Arid Land Geography 8(1): 53–57. (In Chinese with English abstract)
Jamieson B, Johnston CD (1999) Snowpack factors associated with strength changes of buried surface hoar layers. Cold Regions Science and Technology 30(1–3): 19–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(99)00026-9
Jamieson B, Johnston CD (2001) Evaluation of the shear frame test for weak snowpack layers. Annals of Glaciology 32: 59–69. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819472
Jamieson B, Zeidler A, Brown C (2007) Explanation and limitations of study plot stability indices for forecasting dry snow slab avalanches in surrounding terrain. Cold Regions Science and Technology 50(1–3): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.02.010
Jamieson JB, Schweizer J (2000) Texture and strength changes of buried surface–hoar layers with implications for dry snowslab avalanche release. Journal of Glaciology 46(152): 151–160. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756500781833278
Jomelli V, Delval C, Grancher D, et al. (2007) Probabilistic analysis of recent snow avalanche activity and weather in the French Alps. Cold Regions Science and Technology 47(1–2): 180–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2006.08.003
Jonas T, Marty C, Magnusson J (2009) Estimating the snow water equivalent from snow depth measurements in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Hydrology 378(1–2): 161–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.021
Jones A (2004) Review of glide processes and glide avalanche release. Avalanche News 69(7): 53–60. https://doi.org/www.researchgate.net/publication/255570628
Joshi JC, Srivastava S (2014) A Hidden Markov Model for avalanche forecasting on Chowkibal–Tangdhar road axis in Indian Himalayas. Journal of earth system science 123(8): 1771–1779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-014-0510-4
Keiler M, Sailer R, Jörg P, et al. (2006) Avalanche risk assessmenta multi–temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 6(4): 637–651. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-637-2006..
Kinar NJ, Pomeroy JW (2015) Measurement of the physical properties of the snowpack. Reviews of Geophysics 53(2): 481–544. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000481
Knight J, Harrison S (2013) The impacts of climate change on terrestrial Earth surface systems. Nature Climate Change 3(1): 24–29. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1660
Laxton SC, Smith DJ (2009) Dendrochronological reconstruction of snow avalanche activity in the Lahul Himalaya, Northern India. Natural hazards 49(3): 459–467. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9288-5
Lu H, Wei W, Liu M, et al. (2014) Observations and modeling of incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies in the west Tianshan Mountains, China. Journal of Mountain Science 11(5): 1138–1153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2868-1
Ma W, Hu R (1990) Relationship between the development of depth hoar and avalanche release in the Tian Shan mountains, China. Journal of Glaciology 36(122). https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000005529
Mock CJ, Birkeland KW (2000) Snow avalanche climatology of the western United States mountain ranges. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81(10): 2367–2392. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2367:SACOTW>2.3.CO;2
Peitzsch EH, Hendrikx J, Fagre DB, et al. (2012) Examining spring wet slab and glide avalanche occurrence along the Going–to–the–Sun Road corridor, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Cold regions science and technology 78: 73–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.01.012
Pérez–Guillén C, Tapia M, Furdada G, et al. (2014) Evaluation of a snow avalanche possibly triggered by a local earthquake at Vallée de la Sionne, Switzerland. Cold Regions Science and Technology 108: 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2014.07.007
Perla RI (1970) On contributory factors in avalanche hazard evaluation. Canadian Geotechnical Journal 7(4): 414–419. https://doi.org/10.1139/t70-053
Podolskiy EA, Nishimura K, Abe O, et al. (2010) Earthquakeinduced snow avalanches: II. Experimental study. Journal of Glaciology 56(197): 447–458. https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310792447833
Qiu JQ, Abe O (1997) New progress in the research on avalanche dynamics the Tianshan Mountains. Arid Land Geography 20(1): 1–8. (In Chinese with English abstract)
Reiweger I, Gaume J, Schweizer J (2015) A new mixed–mode failure criterion for weak snowpack layers. Geophysical Research Letters 42(5): 1427–1432. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062780
Reiweger I, Schweizer J (2010) Failure of a layer of buried surface hoar. Geophysical Research Letters 37(24), L24501. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045433
Romig JM (2004) March wet avalanche prediction at Bridger Bowl ski area, Montana. PhD thesis, Montana State University–Bozeman, College of Letters and Science. pp 46–60.
Schweizer J, Bruce Jamieson J, Schneebeli M (2003a) Snow avalanche formation. Reviews of Geophysics 41(4): 1016. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002RG000123
Schweizer J, Kronholm K, Wiesinger T (2003b) Verification of regional snowpack stability and avalanche danger. Cold Regions Science and Technology 37(3): 277–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(03)00070-3
Shandro B, Haegeli P (2018) Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18(4): 1141. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018
Spandre P, Morin S, Lafaysse M, et al. (2016) Integration of snow management processes into a detailed snowpack model. Cold Regions Science and Technology 125: 48–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.01.002
Sturm M, Holmgren J, Liston GE (1995) A seasonal snow cover classification system for local to global applications. Journal of Climate 8(5): 1261–1283. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1261:ASSCCS>2.0.CO;2
Techel F, Pielmeier C (2009) Wet snow diurnal evolution and stability assessment. In International Snow Science Workshop ISSW, Davos, Switzerland. pp 256–261.
Van Herwijnen A, Jamieson B (2007) Snowpack properties associated with fracture initiation and propagation resulting in skier–triggered dry snow slab avalanches. Cold Regions Science and Technology 50(1–3): 13–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.02.004
Wang YL (1988) The relation between the growth of seasonal depth hoar and the avalanches in China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 10(2): 173–180. (In Chinese with English abstract)
Ward Jr JH (1963) Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function. Journal of the American statistical association 58(301): 236–244. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500845
Wastl M, Stötter J, Kleindienst H (2011) Avalanche risk assessment for mountain roads: a case study from Iceland. Natural hazards 56(2): 465–480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9703-6
Wei WS, Qin DH, Liu MZ (2001) Properties and structure of the seasonal snow cover in the continental regions of China. Annals of glaciology 32: 93–96. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819328
Wever N, Vera Valero C, Fierz C (2016) Assessing wet snow avalanche activity using detailed physics based snowpack simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 43(11): 5732–5740. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068428
Xu XZ, Song GD, Liu J, et al. (2015) Avalanche in Tuban: a hazard with no defense. Natural Hazards 79(3): 2181–2187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1946-9
Yamanoi K, Endo Y (2002) Dependence of shear strength of snow cover on density and water content. Seppyo 64: 443–451. (In Japanese with English abstract)
Zhang ZZ (1986) Preliminary analyses of the release causes for wet snow avalanches in the Kunas valley, Tianshan Mountains. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 3(4): 403–407. (In Chinese with English abstract)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Science (Grant No. KFJSTSZDTP-015) and the National Project of Investigation of Basic Resources for Science and Technology (Grant No. 2017FY100501). We are grateful to the supports in field and laboratory work from the Tianshan Station for Snow cover and Avalanche Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. We also thank the Nalati Highway Administration for helping the data collection.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hao, Js., Huang, Fr., Liu, Y. et al. Avalanche activity and characteristics of its triggering factors in the western Tianshan Mountains, China. J. Mt. Sci. 15, 1397–1411 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4941-2
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4941-2