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Sustainability Science

, Volume 14, Issue 1, pp 23–37 | Cite as

Spatially explicit residential and working population assumptions for projecting and assessing natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan

  • Takanori MatsuiEmail author
  • Chihiro Haga
  • Osamu Saito
  • Shizuka Hashimoto
Special Feature: Technical Report Future Scenarios for Socio-Ecological Production Landscape and Seascape
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Special Feature: Future Scenarios for Socio-Ecological Production Landscape and Seascape

Abstract

In scenario studies of biodiversity and ecosystem services, the population distribution is one of the key driving forces. In this study, we developed a coupling method for narrative scenarios and spatially explicit residential and working population designs for all of Japan as a common dataset for ecosystem scenario analysis implemented by 5-year project entitled “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)”. Four narrative scenarios were proposed by the PANCES project using two axes as major uncertainties: the population distribution and the capital preference. The residential population and the working population in primary industries were calculated using a gravity-based allocation algorithm in a manner consistent with the storylines of the PANCES scenarios. Using the population distribution assumption by scenario, the population was overlaid with the natural capital and the supply potential of ecosystem services. The results supported to understand the gaps between natural capital and maintainability, and the potential of ecosystem services and realizability. The spatially explicit population distribution data products are expected to help design the nature conservation strategy and governance option in terms of both social system and ecological system.

Keywords

Ecosystem services Natural capital Scenario analysis Population distribution Spatially explicit 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund [S-15 ‘‘Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services’’ (PANCES), Ministry of the Environment, Japan] and Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellow (number 18J20266) from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). We specially appreciate the project members and respondents who contributed to this survey design and implementation.

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Copyright information

© Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of EngineeringOsaka UniversitySuitaJapan
  2. 2.United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS)TokyoJapan
  3. 3.Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan

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