Advertisement

Sustainability Science

, Volume 14, Issue 1, pp 175–190 | Cite as

Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia

  • Mesfin SahleEmail author
  • Osamu Saito
  • Christine Fürst
  • Sebsebe Demissew
  • Kumelachew Yeshitela
Special Feature: Original Article Future Scenarios for Socio-Ecological Production Landscape and Seascape
  • 167 Downloads
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Special Feature: Future Scenarios for Socio-Ecological Production Landscape and Seascape

Abstract

In this study, we have modeled and examined future land use management effects on ecosystem services in the Wabe River catchment of the Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia. In addition to the climate-resilient scenario designed to meet the strategic plan of Ethiopia, the business as usual (BAU) and an alternative agroforestry scenario were modeled for the year 2030 to align with the government long-term development plan. Through the statistical and biophysical modeling approach, this study quantified and mapped the food production, water provision, carbon storage, and sequestration and sediment retention ecosystem services. The land use land cover and the other datasets were obtained from various primary and secondary sources, and prepared according to the models requirement. The future scenarios were modeled through the Land Change Modeler for ArcGIS and InVEST Scenario Generator models. The simulated BAU scenario result revealed that all of the ecosystem services decreased from the baseline status. In contrast, implementation of the climate-resilient strategy could enhance the existing status of ecosystem services. In the agroforestry scenario, all of the quantified ecosystem services increased even more than the climate-resilient scenario. We conclude that landscape management activities described in the climate-resilient strategy could ensure sustainable production while conserving the environment. However, we recommend the enset-based agroforestry system expansion, which could boost food production and enhance other ecological services in the catchment. Further studies are suggested on the expansion of this system in the catchment and similar parts of Ethiopia.

Keywords

Enset-based agroforestry Business as usual InVEST Synergies Land use models Landscape planning 

Notes

Acknowledgements

These study data were collected with the kind cooperation of Gurage Zone, Woreda (district), and Kebele (subdistrict) level agriculture and natural resources departments and their staff members. Financial and logistic support was provided by Wolkite and Addis Ababa Universities. The International Foundation for Science (IFS) and DAAD, through the In Country scholarship program, provided partial financial support for this study. Therefore, we gratefully acknowledge all of these organizations and the financial support granted to the first author.

References

  1. Badege B, Neufeldt H, Mowo J, Abdelkadir A, Muriuki J, Dalle G, Assefa T, Guillozet K, Kassa H, Dawson IK, Luedeling E, Mbow C (2013) Farmers’ strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate variability and change through agroforestry in Ethiopia and Kenya. In: Davis CM, Bernart B, Dmitriev A (eds) Forestry communications group. Oregon State University, CorvallisGoogle Scholar
  2. Bishwa NR (2003) Contribution of agroforestry for rural livelihoods: A case of Dhading District, Nepal. The International Conference on Rural Livelihoods, Forests and Biodiversity 19–23 May 2003, Bonn, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  3. Bogale T (2007) Agroforestry practice in gedeo zone, Ethiopia: a geographical analysis. PhD dissertation nr. 188. Punjab University, IndiaGoogle Scholar
  4. Brandt SA, Spring A, Hiebsch C, McCabe JT, Tabogie E, Diro M, Wolde-Michael G, Yntiso G, Shigeta M, Tesfaye S (1997) The “tree against hunger”: Enset-based agricultural system in Ethiopia. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  5. Brown S, Grais A, Ambagis S, Pearson T (2012) Baseline GHG emissions from the agricultural sector and mitigation potential in countries of East and West Africa. CCAFS Working Paper 13. CCAFS, Copenhagen, DenmarkGoogle Scholar
  6. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2018) World factbook and other sources. https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/ethiopia/ethiopia_economy.html. Accessed 6 May 2018
  7. CRGE (Climate Resilient Green Economy) (2011) Ethiopia’s green economy strategy. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  8. CSA (Central Statistical Agency) (2017) Agricultural sample surveys 2016/17 Report on area and production of major crops. Statistical bulletin 584, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  9. Díaz S, Pascual U, Stenseke M, Martín-López B, Shirayama Y (2018) Assessing nature’s contributions to people. Science 359(6373):270–272.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap8826 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Eastman JR (2006) IDRISI Andes Tutorial. Clark University, Worcester, USA, Clark labsGoogle Scholar
  11. Echeverria C, Coomes DA, Hall M, Newton AC (2008) Spatially explicit models to analyze forest loss and fragmentation between 1976 and 2020 in southern Chile. Ecol Model 212(3–4):439–449.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.045 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Ellis E, Pontius R (2007) Land-use and land-cover change. In: Cutler J (ed) Encyclopedia of Earth. Springer, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  13. Estoque RC, Murayama Y (2012) Examining the potential impact of land use/cover changes on the ecosystem services of Baguio city, the Philippines: a scenario- based analysis. Appl Geogr 35(1–2):316–326.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.08.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Foley JA, De Fries R, Asner GP, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter SR, Chapin FS, Coe MT, Daily GC, Gibbs HK, Helkowski JH, Holloway T, Howard EA, Kucharik CJ, Monfreda C, Patz J, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, Snyder PK (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science 309(5734):570–574.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Fürst C, Helming K, Lorz C, Müller F, Verburg PH (2013) Integrated land use and regional resource management—a cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources. J Environ Manag 127(Supplement):S1–S5.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.12.015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Geneletti D (2013) Assessing the impact of alternative land-use zoning policies on future ecosystem services. Environ Impact Assess Rev 40:25–35.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2012.12.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Gibson D, Quinn J (2017) Application of anthromes to frame scenario planning for landscape- scale conservation decision making. Land 6(2):33.  https://doi.org/10.3390/land6020033 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Han H, Yang C, Song J (2015) Scenario simulation and the prediction of land use and land cover change in Beijing China. Sustainability 7(4):4260–4279.  https://doi.org/10.3390/su7044260 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. IGBP (The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) (1999) Land use and land cover change (LUCC) Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 48/IHDP Report No 10. Stockholm, SwedenGoogle Scholar
  20. IPBES (2016) Summary for policymakers of the methodological assessment of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. In: Ferrier S, Ninan KN, Leadley P, Alkemade R, Acosta LA, Akçakaya HR, Brotons L, Cheung W, Christensen V, Harhash KA, Kabubo-Mariara J, Lundquist C, Obersteiner M, Pereira H, Peterson G, Pichs-Madruga R, Ravindranath NH, Rondinini C, Wintle B (eds) Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  21. Kamusoko C, Oono K, Nakazawa A, Wada Y, Nakada R, Hosokawa T, Tomimura S, Furuya T, Iwata A, Moriike H, Someya T, Yamase T, Nasu M, Gomi Y, Sano T, Isobe T, Homsysavath K (2011) Spatial simulation modelling of future forest cover change scenarios in Luangprabang Province. Lao PDR. Forests 2(3):707–729.  https://doi.org/10.3390/f2030707 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kanshie TK (2002) Five thousand years of sustainability? a case study on Gedeo land use (Southern Ethiopia). Thesis Wageningen University, The NetherlandsGoogle Scholar
  23. Kindu M, Thomas S, Martin D, Demel T, Thomas K (2017) Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Sci Total Environ 622–623:534–546.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.338 Google Scholar
  24. Lemenih M, Teketay D (2004) Restoration of native forest flora in the degraded highlands of Ethiopia: constraints and opportunities. SINET 27:75–90Google Scholar
  25. Mesele N, Starr M (2013) Litter-fall production and associated carbon and nitrogen fluxes of seven woody species grown in indigenous agroforestry systems in the Rift Valley escarpment of Ethiopia. Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst 97(1–3):29–41.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-013-9590-9 Google Scholar
  26. Mulugeta G, Mabrate A (2017) Production and ecological potentials of Gedeo's indigenous agroforestry practices in Southern Ethiopia. J Resour Dev Manag 30. ISSN 2422-8397Google Scholar
  27. National Metrological Services Agency (NMA) (2016) Climate data. National Metrological Services Agency, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  28. Odindi J, Mhangara P, Kakembo V (2012) Remote sensing land-cover change in Port Elizabeth during South Africa’s democratic transition. S Afr J Sci 108(5/6):1–7.  https://doi.org/10.4102/sajs.v108i5/6.886 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Pereira HM, Navarro LM, Martins IS (2012) Global biodiversity change: the bad, the good, and the unknown. Annu Rev Environ Resour 37:25–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Petz K, van Oudenhoven APE (2012) Modelling land management effects on ecosystem functions and services: a study in The Netherlands. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manag 8(1–2):135–155.  https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2011.642409 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Pontius RG, Huffaker D, Denman K (2004) Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models. Ecol Model 179(1):445–461.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.05.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Reid RS, Kruska RL, Muthui N, Taye A, Wotton S, Wilson CJ, Mulatu W (2000) Land–use and land–cover dynamics in response to changes in climatic, biological and socio–political forces: the case of south western Ethiopia. Landscape Ecol 15(4):339–355.  https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008177712995 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Sahle M, Saito O, Fürst C, Yeshitela K (2018a) Quantification and mapping of the supply of and demand for carbon storage and sequestration service in woody biomass and soil to mitigate climate change in the socio-ecological environment. Sci Total Environ 624:342–354.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.033 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Sahle M, Yeshitela K, Saito O (2018b) Mapping the supply and demand of enset crop to improve food security in Southern Ethiopia. Agron Sustain Dev 38:7.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-017-0484-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Sahle M, Fürst C, Yeshitela K (2018c) Plant diversity analysis for conservation of Afromontane vegetation in socio-ecological mountain landscape of gurage, south central Ethiopia. IJBC 10(4):161–171.  https://doi.org/10.5897/IJBC2017.1172 Google Scholar
  36. Shank R, Ertiro C (1996) A linear model for predicting Enset plant yield and assessment of kocho production in Ethiopia. United Nations Development Programme Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. http://www.africa.upenn.edu/eue_web/enset96.htm. Accessed Dec 2016
  37. Sharp R, Tallis HT, Ricketts T, Guerry AD, Wood SA, Chaplin-Kramer R, Nelson E, Ennaanay D, Wolny S, Olwero N, Vigerstol K, Pennington D, Mendoza G, Aukema J, Foster J, Forrest J, Cameron D, Arkema K, Lonsdorf E, Kennedy C, Verutes G, Kim CK, Guannel G, Papenfus M, Toft J, Marsik M, Bernhardt J, Griffin R, Glowinski K, Chaumont N, Perelman A, Lacayo M Mandle L, Hamel P, Vogl AL, Rogers L, Bierbower W, Denu D, Douglass J (2016) InVEST +VERSION+ User’s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife FundGoogle Scholar
  38. Shoyama K, Yamagata Y (2014) Predicting land-use change for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation and its effect on ecosystem services in a watershed in Japan. Ecosyst Serv 8:25–34.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.02.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Slonecker ET, Barnes Christopher, Karstensen, Krista, Milheim LE, Roig-Silva CM (2013) Consequences of land use and land cover change: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2013–3010. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3010/
  40. Smith P, Bustamante M, Ahammad H, Clark H, Dong H, Elsiddig EA, Haberl H, Harper R, House J, Jafari M, Masera O, Mbow C, Ravindranath NH, Rice CW, Abad CR, Romanovskaya A, Sperling F, Tubiello F (2014) Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). In: climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  41. Tegene B (2002) Land-cover/land-use changes in the Derekolli catchment of the South Wello zone of Amhara Region, Ethiopia. East Afr Soc Sci Res Rev 18:1–20.  https://doi.org/10.1353/eas.2002.0005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. UN-DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) (2012) A guidebook to the green economy issue 1: green economy, green growth, and low-carbon development—history, definitions and a guide to recent publications. United NationsGoogle Scholar
  43. UNU-IAS & IR3S, UTIAS (2016) Socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) in Africa. United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Tokyo, pp 28–36Google Scholar
  44. Verchot LV, Noordwijk M, Kandji S, Tomich T, Ong C, Albrecht A, Mackensen J, Bantilan C, Anupama KV, Palm C (2007) Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry. Mitig Adapt Strat G 12(5):901–918.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9105-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Verheye HW (2009) Land use, land cover and soil sciences—Vol. IV. Land Use Management Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), UNESCO, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  46. Wolde-Gebriel Z, Pijls LT, Timmer AM, West CE (2006) Review on cultivation, preparation and consumption of Ensete (Ensete ventricosum) in Ethiopia. J Sci Food Agric 67:1–11.  https://doi.org/10.1002/jsfa.2740670102 Google Scholar
  47. Woldetsadik M (2003) Impacts of population pressure on land use/land cover change, agricultural system and income diversification in West Gurageland, Ethiopia. PhD Thesis, Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU, Trondheim. ISBN 82;471:5230-- 5234Google Scholar
  48. Wubie MA, Assen M, Nicolau MD (2016) Patterns, causes and consequences of land use/cover dynamics in the Gumara watershed of Lake Tana basin, north western Ethiopia. Environ Syst Res 5:8.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-016-0058-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Yalew S, Mul ML, van Griensven A, Teferi E, Priess J, Schweitzer C, van Der Zaag P (2016) Land-use change modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Environments 3:21.  https://doi.org/10.3390/environments3030021 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Yirsaw E, Wu W, Shi X, Temesgen H, Bekele B (2017) land use/land cover change modeling and the prediction of subsequent changes in ecosystem service values in a coastal area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang region. Sustainability 9:1204.  https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071204 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction and City Development (EiABC)Addis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
  2. 2.United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of SustainabilityTokyoJapan
  3. 3.Institute of Geosciences and GeographyMartin Luther University Halle-WittenbergHalleGermany
  4. 4.Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
  5. 5.Department of Natural Resource ManagementWolkite UniversityWolkiteEthiopia

Personalised recommendations