Sustainability Science

, Volume 14, Issue 1, pp 175–190 | Cite as

Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia

  • Mesfin SahleEmail author
  • Osamu Saito
  • Christine Fürst
  • Sebsebe Demissew
  • Kumelachew Yeshitela
Special Feature: Original Article Future Scenarios for Socio-Ecological Production Landscape and Seascape
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Special Feature: Future Scenarios for Socio-Ecological Production Landscape and Seascape


In this study, we have modeled and examined future land use management effects on ecosystem services in the Wabe River catchment of the Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia. In addition to the climate-resilient scenario designed to meet the strategic plan of Ethiopia, the business as usual (BAU) and an alternative agroforestry scenario were modeled for the year 2030 to align with the government long-term development plan. Through the statistical and biophysical modeling approach, this study quantified and mapped the food production, water provision, carbon storage, and sequestration and sediment retention ecosystem services. The land use land cover and the other datasets were obtained from various primary and secondary sources, and prepared according to the models requirement. The future scenarios were modeled through the Land Change Modeler for ArcGIS and InVEST Scenario Generator models. The simulated BAU scenario result revealed that all of the ecosystem services decreased from the baseline status. In contrast, implementation of the climate-resilient strategy could enhance the existing status of ecosystem services. In the agroforestry scenario, all of the quantified ecosystem services increased even more than the climate-resilient scenario. We conclude that landscape management activities described in the climate-resilient strategy could ensure sustainable production while conserving the environment. However, we recommend the enset-based agroforestry system expansion, which could boost food production and enhance other ecological services in the catchment. Further studies are suggested on the expansion of this system in the catchment and similar parts of Ethiopia.


Enset-based agroforestry Business as usual InVEST Synergies Land use models Landscape planning 



These study data were collected with the kind cooperation of Gurage Zone, Woreda (district), and Kebele (subdistrict) level agriculture and natural resources departments and their staff members. Financial and logistic support was provided by Wolkite and Addis Ababa Universities. The International Foundation for Science (IFS) and DAAD, through the In Country scholarship program, provided partial financial support for this study. Therefore, we gratefully acknowledge all of these organizations and the financial support granted to the first author.


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Copyright information

© Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction and City Development (EiABC)Addis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
  2. 2.United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of SustainabilityTokyoJapan
  3. 3.Institute of Geosciences and GeographyMartin Luther University Halle-WittenbergHalleGermany
  4. 4.Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
  5. 5.Department of Natural Resource ManagementWolkite UniversityWolkiteEthiopia

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