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Sustainability Science

, Volume 9, Issue 3, pp 247–261 | Cite as

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

  • S. J. MetcalfEmail author
  • E. I. van Putten
  • S. D. Frusher
  • M. Tull
  • N. Marshall
Original Article

Abstract

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.

Keywords

Climate change Qualitative modelling Bayesian belief network Fisheries Socio-economic Stakeholder input 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. Special thanks go to all the community participants for their valuable contributions. We would also like to thank Jeff Dambacher and the anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions.

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Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • S. J. Metcalf
    • 1
    Email author
  • E. I. van Putten
    • 2
    • 3
  • S. D. Frusher
    • 2
  • M. Tull
    • 1
  • N. Marshall
    • 4
  1. 1.School of Management and GovernanceMurdoch UniversityMurdoch, PerthAustralia
  2. 2.The Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS)University of TasmaniaSandy Bay, HobartAustralia
  3. 3.CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric ResearchHobartAustralia
  4. 4.CSIRO Ecosystem SciencesTownsvilleAustralia

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