Sustainability Science

, Volume 3, Issue 1, pp 89–102 | Cite as

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

  • Robert J. NichollsEmail author
  • Poh Poh Wong
  • Virginia Burkett
  • Colin D. Woodroffe
  • John Hay
Special Feature: Original Article Sea-level rise


Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.


Coasts Impacts Adaptation Scenario Storyline 



This work was stimulated by the authors' involvement in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Working Group II Report: chapter on ‘Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas’.


  1. Agardy T, Alder J, Dayton P, Curran S, Kitchingman A, Wilson M, Catenazzi A, Restrepo J, Birkeland C, Blaber S, Saifullah S, Branch G, Boersma D, Nixon S, Dugan P, Davidson N, Vörösmarty C (2005) Coastal systems. Millenium ecosystem assessment: ecosystems human well-being, vol 1; current state and trends. Island Press, Washington, pp 513–549Google Scholar
  2. Andersson AJ, Mackenzie FT, Ver LM (2003) Solution of shallow-water carbonates: an insignificant buffer against rising atmospheric CO2. Geology 31:513–516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES scenarios and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:31–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Arnell NW, Livermore MJL, Kovats S, Levy PE, Nicholls R, Parry ML, Gaffin SR (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Glob Environ Change 14:3–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barth MC, Titus JG (eds) (1984) Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: a challenge for this generation. Van Nostrand ReinholdGoogle Scholar
  6. Becken S, Hay JE (2007) Tourism and climate change: risks and opportunities. Channel View Publications, UKGoogle Scholar
  7. Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2005) The impact of climate change on domestic and international tourism: a simulation study. Working paper FNU-58Google Scholar
  8. Bijlsma L, Ehler CN, Klein RJT, Kulshrestha SM, McLean RF, Mimura N, Nicholls RJ, Nurse LA, Perez Nieto H, Turner RK, Warrick RA (1996) Coastal zones and small islands. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH, (eds) Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analysis. (The Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II), Cambridge University Press, pp 289–324Google Scholar
  9. Bird ECF (1993) Submerging coasts. Wiley, ChichesterGoogle Scholar
  10. Broadus JM, Milliman JD, Edwards SF, Aubrey DC, Gable F (1986) Rising sea level and damming of rivers: possible effects in Egypt and Bangladesh. In: Titus JG (ed) Effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and global change, vol 4, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, pp 165–189Google Scholar
  11. Buddemeier RW, Smith SV, Swaaney DP, Crossland CJ (2002) The role of the coastal ocean in the disturbed and undisturbed nutrient and carbon cycles. LOICZ reports and studies series No. 24Google Scholar
  12. Burkett VB, Zilkowski DB, Hart DA (2002) Sea level rise and subsidence: implications for flooding in New Orleans, Louisiana. In: Prince KR, Galloway DL (eds) Subsidence interest group conference, proceedings of the technical meeting, Galveston, 27–29 November 2001. USGS water resources division open-file report series 03-308, US Geological Survey, AustinGoogle Scholar
  13. Carbon trust (2004) UK, Europe and global tidal stream energy resource assessment. The Carbon Trust, London, p 47Google Scholar
  14. Carpenter SR, Pingali PL, Bennett EM, and Zurek MB (eds.) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios, Findings of the scenarios working group of the millennium ecosystem assessment, vol 2. Island Press, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  15. Carpenter SR, Bennett EM, Peterson GD (2006) Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview. Ecol Society 11(1):29. Google Scholar
  16. Carter TR, Jones RN, Lu X, Bhadwal S, Conde C, Mearns LO, O’Neill BC, Rounsevell MDA Zurek MB (2007) New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 133–171Google Scholar
  17. Castles I, Henderson D (2003) Economics, emissions scenarios and the work of the IPCC. Energy Environ 14:415–435CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Church JA, Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Kuhn M, Lambeck K, Nhuan MT, Qin D, Woodworth PL (2001) Changes in sea level. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs D J, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D (eds) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, pp 639–693Google Scholar
  19. Church JA, Nicholls RJ, Hay JE, Gornitz V (2007) Section 6C. Ice and sea-level change. In global outlook for ice and snow, UNEP, Nairobi, pp 153–180Google Scholar
  20. Church JA, White NJ, Aarup T, Wilson WS, Woodworth PL, Domingues CM, Hunter JR, Lambeck K (2008) Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future. Sustain Sci 3:9–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Cohen JE, Small C, Mellinger A, Gallup J, Sachs J (1997) Estimates of coastal populations. Science 278:1211–1212Google Scholar
  22. Constanza R, Mitsch WJ, Day JW Jr (2006) A new vision for New Orleans and the Mississippi delta: applying economics and ecological engineering. Front Ecol Environ 4:465–472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Cork S, Peterson G, Petschel-Held G, Alcamo J, Alder J, Bennett E, Carr ER, Deane D, Nelson GC, Ribeiro T (2005) Four scenarios. In: Carpenter SR, Pingali PL, Bennett EM, Zurek MB (eds) Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios. Findings of the scenarios working group of the millennium ecosystem assessment, vol 2. Island Press, Washington, pp 223–294Google Scholar
  24. Crossland CJ, Kremer HH, Lindeboom HJ, Marshall Crossland JI, Le Tissier MDA (2005) Coastal fluxes in the anthropocene. The land–ocean interactions in the coastal zone project of the international geosphere–biosphere programme series: global change—The IGBP series, p 232Google Scholar
  25. Dang NA (2003) Internal migration policies in the ESCAP region. Asia-Pac Popul J 18:27–40Google Scholar
  26. Dawson R., Dickson M, Nicholls R., Hall J.W., Walkden M, Stansby P, Mokrech M, Richards J, Zhou J., Milligan J, Jordan A, Pearson S, Rees J, Bates P, Koukoulas S Watkinson A (2007) Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change: Tyndall centre working paper 110, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
  27. DINAS-COAST Consortium (2006) DIVA 1.0. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, CD-ROMGoogle Scholar
  28. Dixon TH, Amelung F, Ferretti A, Novali F, Rocca F, Dokka R, Sella G, Kim S-W, Wdowinski S, Whitman D (2006) Subsidence and flooding in New Orleans. Nature 441:587–588CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Dokka RK (2006) Modern-day tectonic subsidence in coastal Louisiana. Geology 34:281–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. EFGC (2006) Envisioning the future of the gulf coast. Final report and findings. In: Reed D (ed) America’s wetland, campaign to save Coastal Louisiana, p 11Google Scholar
  31. Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ericson JP, Vorosmarty CJ, Dingman SL, Ward LG, Meybeck M (2006) Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications. Glob Planet Change 50:63–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Evans EP, Ashley RM, Hall J, Penning-Rowsell E, Saul A, Sayers P, Thorne C, Watkinson A (2004a) Foresight: future flooding. Scientific summary: future risks and their drivers. vol I. Office of Science and TechnologyGoogle Scholar
  34. Evans EP, Ashley RM, Hall J, Penning-Rowsell E, Sayers P, Thorne C, Watkinson W (2004b) Foresight: future flooding. Scientific summary: managing future risks. vol II. Office of Science and TechnologyGoogle Scholar
  35. Fankhauser S (1995) Protection versus retreat: estimating the costs of sea-level rise. Environ Planning A 27:299–319CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Gardner TA, Côté IM, Gill JA, Grant A, Watkinson AR (2003) Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean corals. Science 301:958–960CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Gommes R, du Guerny J, Nachtergaele F, Brinkman R (1998) Potential impacts of sea-level rise on populations and agriculture. SD-dimensions special, FAO, Rome.
  38. Grübler A, Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, Fenhann J, Hare B, Mori S, Pepper B, Pitcher H, Riahi K, Rogner H-H, La Rovere EL, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla RP, Swart R, Victor N, Jung TY (2004) Emissions scenarios: a final response. Energy Environ 15:11–24Google Scholar
  39. Hamilton JM, Maddison DJ, Tol RSJ (2005) The effects of climate change on international tourism. Clim Res 29:255–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Hamm L, Stive MJF (eds) (2002) Shore nourishment in Europe. Coastal Eng 47:79–263Google Scholar
  41. Hanson H (2003) Overview of beach nourishment projects in the European union-projects, practices and objectives. Shore and Beach 71(2):9–19Google Scholar
  42. Harvey N (2006) Rates and impacts of global sea-level change. In: Glazer MP (ed) New frontiers in environmental research. Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, NYGoogle Scholar
  43. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Hoegh-Guldberg H (2004) The implications of climate change for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. People and industries at risk. World Wildlife Fund and Queensland Tourism Industry Council, BrisbaneGoogle Scholar
  44. Holman IP, Rounsevell MDA, Shackley S, Harrison PA, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Audsley E (2005) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: I methodology. Clim Change 71(1–2):9–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Holman IP, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Harrison PA, Audsley E, Shackley S, Rounsevell MDA (2005) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: II results. Clim Change 71(1–2):43–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M, Pennekamp HA (1993) A global vulnerability analysis: vulnerability assessment for population, coastal wetlands and rice production on a global scale, 2nd edn. Delft Hydraulics, Delft, The NetherlandsGoogle Scholar
  47. Hulme, M., Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S (2002) Climate Change scenarios for the United Kingdom. The UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, p 120Google Scholar
  48. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (Downloaded from on 3 January 2008)
  49. IPCC CZMS (1992) A common methodology for assessing vulnerability to sea-level rise—second revision. Global climate change and the rising challenge of the sea. Report of the coastal zone management subgroup, response strategies working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Hague, The Netherlands, Appendix C, p 27Google Scholar
  50. Kennish M (2002) Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries. Environ Conserv 29(1):78–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ (1998) Coastal zones. In: Feenstra JF, Burton I, Smith JB, Tol RSJ (eds) Handbook on climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies, version 2.0, United Nations Environment Programme and Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Nairobi, Kenya, and Amsterdam, The Netherlands, pp 7.1–7.35Google Scholar
  52. Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ (1999) Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28(2):182–187Google Scholar
  53. Koster MJ, Hillen R (1995) Combat erosion by law: coastal defence policy for The Netherlands. J Coast Res 11(4):1221–1228Google Scholar
  54. Leafe R, Pethick J, Townend I (1998) Realizing the benefits of shoreline management. Geogr J 164(3):282–290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19(1):17–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins W, Friedlingstein P, Gaye A, Gregory J, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy J, Noda A, Raper S, Watterson I, Weaver A, Zhao Z-C (2007) Global climate projections climate change 2007. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M (eds) The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (in press)Google Scholar
  57. Milly PCD, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438:347–350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Nakićenović N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Emissions scenarios. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, p 599Google Scholar
  59. NAST (2000) Climate change impacts in the United States, Overview. Report for the US global change research program. National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST) members, p 154Google Scholar
  60. National Research Council (2006) Drawing Louisiana’s new map, addressing land loss in coastal Louisiana. National Research Council, National Academy PressGoogle Scholar
  61. Neumann JE, Yohe G, Nicholls RJ, Manion M (2001) Sea level rise and its effects on global resources. In: Claussen E (ed) Climate change: science, strategies and solutions. Brill, Boston, pp 43–62Google Scholar
  62. Nicholls RJ (1995) Coastal megacities and climate change. Geojournal 37(3):369–379CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Nicholls RJ (2004) Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the twenty-first century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14(1):69–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Nicholls RJ, Lowe JA (2004) Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas. Glob Environ Change 14(3):229–244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ (2006) Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philos Trans R Soc Lond A 364:1073–1095CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett, V, Codignotto J, Hay J, McLean R, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007a) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden P, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp 315–357Google Scholar
  67. Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herweijer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Chateau J, Muir-Wood R (2007b) Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes exposure estimates. Environment working Papers No. 1, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, Paris. Downloadable at,3343,en_2649_34361_39718712_1_1_1_1,00.html
  68. Nicholls RJ, Cooper NJ, Townend IT (2007c) Coastal management and engineering. In: Thorne C, Evans E, Penning-Rowsell E (eds) Future flood and coastal erosion risks in the UK. Thomas Telford, LondonGoogle Scholar
  69. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP,van der Linden P, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  70. Parson E, Burkett V, Fisher-Vanden K, Keith D, Mearns L, Pitcher H, Rosenzweig C, Webster M (2007) Global change scenarios: their development and use. A report by the U.S. climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change science research. Department of energy, Office of Biological Environmental Research, p 102Google Scholar
  71. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise Science 315:368–370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316:709. doi: 10.1126/science.1136843 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Reker J, Vermaat J, van Winden A, Eleveld M, Janssen R, Braakhekke W, de Reus N, Omzigt N (2006) Deltas on the move: making deltas cope with the effects of climate change. Report Nr. 001/2006, National Research Programme Climate Change Spatial Planning, Amsterdam, p 97Google Scholar
  74. Rodolfo KS, Siringan FP (2006) Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines. Disaster Management 30:118–139CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Rohling EJ, Grant K, Hemleben CH, Siddall M, Hoogakker BAA, Bolshaw M, Kucera M (2007) High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period. Nature Geosci Adv. Online publication
  76. Royal Society (2005) Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Royal Society, p 60, Ref. 12/05Google Scholar
  77. Rupp-Armstrong S, Nicholls RJ (2007) Coastal and estuarine retreat: a comparison of the application of managed realignment in England and Germany. J Coast Res 23(6):1418–1430CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Shell International (2003) Scenarios: an explorer’s guide. Global business environment. at:
  79. Small C, Nicholls RJ (2003) A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. J Coast Res 19:584–599Google Scholar
  80. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  81. Sustainable Development Commission (2007) Turning the tide: Tidal power in the UK. Sustainable Development Commission, London, p 148. downloadable at:
  82. Syvitski JPM, Vörösmarty CJ, Kettner AJ, Green P (2005) Impact of humans on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean. Science 308:376–380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. Syvitski JPM (2008) Deltas at risk. Sustain Sci 3:23–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Thorne C, Evans E, Penning-Rowsell E (eds) (2007) Future flooding and coastal erosion risks. Thomas Telford, 350 ppGoogle Scholar
  85. Tol RSJ (2007) The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND. Mitigation Adapt Strat Glob Change 12(5):741–753CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Turley C, Blackford JC, Widdicombe S, Lowe D, Nightingale PD, Rees AP (2006) Reviewing the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on oceanic pH and the marine ecosystem. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley TML, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, pp 65–70Google Scholar
  87. Turner RK (2000) Integrating natural and socio-economic science in coastal management. J Mar Sys 25:447–460CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. UK Climate Impacts Programme (2001) Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: a guide to their use in the UK climate impacts programme. UKCIP, Oxford. (downloaded at
  89. UNEP (2005) Assessing coastal vulnerability: developing a global index for measuring risk. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, 54ppGoogle Scholar
  90. UNEP (2007) Global environmental outlook geo4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, p 540Google Scholar
  91. Vafeidis AT, Nicholls RJ, Mc Fadden L, Hinkel J, Grashoff PS (2004) Developing a global database for coastal vulnerability analysis: design issues and challenges. In: Altan MO (ed) The international archives of photogrammetry, remote sensing and spatial information sciences, International Society for Photograppmetry and Remote Sensing, vol. 35 (B). Istanbul, pp 801–805Google Scholar
  92. Vafeidis AT, Nicholls RJ, Boot G, Cox J, Grashoff PS, Hinkel J, Maatens R, McFadden L, Spencer T, Tol RSJ (2008) A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. J Coastal Res (in press)Google Scholar
  93. Valiela I (2006) Global coastal change. Blackwell, LondonGoogle Scholar
  94. von Storch H, Woth K (2008) Storm surges: perspectives and options. Sustain Sci 3:33–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Warrick RA, Barrow EM, Wigley TML (eds) (1993) Climate and sea level change: observations, projections, implications. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  96. Watkinson A, Nicholls RJ, Sear D, Ledoux L (2007) Environmental context In: Thorne C, Evans E, Penning-Rowsell E (eds) Future flood and coastal erosion risks in the UK. Thomas Telford, LondonGoogle Scholar
  97. Webster PJ, Holland GJ, Curry JA, Chang H-R (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. Wilkie ML, Fortuna S (2003) Status and trends in Mangrove area extent worldwide—forest resources assessment working paper—63, FAO Rome. Downloadable at
  99. Wilkinson C (ed) (2004) Status of coral reefs of the world. Australian Institute of Marine Science, TownsvilleGoogle Scholar
  100. Wong PP, Lee BT, Leung MWH (2006) Hot spots of population growth and urbanization in the Asia-Pacific coastal zone. In: Harvey N (ed) Global change and integrated coastal management. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 161–193Google Scholar
  101. Woodroffe CD, Nicholls RJ, Saito Y, Chen Z, Goodbred SL (2006) Landscape variability and the response of Asian megadeltas to environmental change. In: Harvey N (ed) Global change implications for coasts in the Asia-Pacific region. Springer, Berlin (in press)Google Scholar
  102. Zhang KQ, Douglas BC, Leatherman SP (2000) Twentieth-century storm activity along the US east coast. J Clim 13:1748–1761CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Yohe GW, Tol RSJ (2002) Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving towards a working definition of adaptive capacity. Glob Environ Change 12:25–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. Yohe GW, Lasco RD, Ahmad QK, Arnell NW, Cohen SJ, Hope C, Janetos AC, Perez RT (2007) Perspectives on climate change and sustainability.In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 811–841Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Robert J. Nicholls
    • 1
    Email author
  • Poh Poh Wong
    • 2
  • Virginia Burkett
    • 3
  • Colin D. Woodroffe
    • 4
  • John Hay
    • 5
  1. 1.School of Civil Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
  2. 2.Department of GeographyNational University of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore
  3. 3.United States Geological SurveyManyUSA 
  4. 4.University of WollongongWollongongAustralia
  5. 5.Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS)Ibaraki UniversityMitoJapan

Personalised recommendations