Acta Geophysica

, Volume 67, Issue 6, pp 1483–1513 | Cite as

New macroseismic intensity predictive models for Turkey

  • Erdem BayrakEmail author
  • Murat Nas
  • Yusuf Bayrak
Research Article - Solid Earth Sciences


In this study, we propose new attenuation relations for use in possible future macroseismicity-based analyses for Turkey. The most significant difference of the new relationships is that they are specifically designed for use in the full extent of Turkey. Besides, this paper supplies an extensive macroseismic database larger than ever collected for Turkey. To this end, a modifiable MATLAB program, which is fully presented in the electronic supplement to this paper, was written to analyze the collected isoseismal maps that were first geo-rectified and then gridded by dividing them into 0.02° arrays. The epicentral distances belonging to each point intersected with the pertinent isoseism were compiled in an event-based log. Then, all subsets were merged into a single dataset, which is presented in the electronic supplement. Required strong ground motion parameters were taken from an improved earthquake catalog recently given by Kadirioğlu et al. (B Earthq Eng 1:2, 2016). For modeling the relations, the early relations were mostly selected as patterns for our candidate attenuation models. Of all candidate models, the statistically significant ones were individually tested whether or not they were able to detect the best fitting model to our database. The predicted error margins of the proposed models were compared to those of early models using data-driven statistical tests. In conclusion, considering the usability limits, the estimation capabilities of proposed relationships were found to be useful to some extent than those of the early models developed for Turkey.


Macroseismicity Macroseismic intensity Earthquake hazard Earthquake early warning Attenuation relations Seismicity of Turkey 



The authors would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments that greatly contributed to improving the final version of the paper. They would also like to thank the handling Editor (Prof. Dr. Aybige Akinci) for her generous comments and support during the all review process.

Supplementary material

11600_2019_357_MOESM1_ESM.docx (988 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 988 kb)


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Copyright information

© Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Geological Engineering, Oltu Earth Sciences FacultyAtaturk UniversityOltu-ErzurumTurkey
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringKaradeniz Technical UniversityTrabzonTurkey
  3. 3.Department of Geophysical EngineeringKaradeniz Technical UniversityTrabzonTurkey

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