Predicting future water demand for Long Xuyen Quadrangle under the impact of climate variability
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Long Xuyen Quadrangle is one of the important agricultural areas of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam accounting for 25% of rice production. In recent years, the area faces drought and salinization problems, as part of climate change impact and sea level rise. These are the main causes that led to the crop water deficits for agricultural production. Therefore, this work was conducted to predict crop water requirement (CWR) based on consideration of other related meteorological factors and further redefine the crop planting calendar (CPC) for three main cropping seasons including winter–spring (WS), summer–autumn (SA) and autumn–spring (AS) using the Cropwat crop model based on the current climate conditions and future climate change scenarios. Meteorological data for the baseline period (2006–2016) and future corresponding to timescales 2020s, 2055s and 2090s of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to predict CWR and CPC for the study area. The results showed that WS and SA crops needed more irrigation water than AS crop and the highest irrigation water requirement of the WS and SA crops occurred on developmental stage, while the AW crop appeared on growth, developmental and late stage for the baseline and timescales of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Calculation results of the shift of CPC indicated that the CWR of the AW crop decreased lowest approximately 6.6–20.6% for timescales of RCP4.5 scenario and 20.6–25.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared with the baseline.
KeywordsCropwat Irrigation water Effective rainfall Crop calendar Climate change
The author would like to thank the Southern Regional Hydro-meteorological Center of Vietnam (SRHCV) for providing database.
In this study, TAD proposed the research project, outlined the study project and designed the proposal. SKL has simulated the crop model. Both TAD and SKL jointly analyzed the results, edited and wrote the manuscript.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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