Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt
- 592 Downloads
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.
KeywordsRift Valley fever Patch model Egypt Basic reproduction number Threshold dynamics
We thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions which led to an improvement of our original manuscript. Research was supported by the National Institute of Health (NIH) grant R01GM093345.
- Abd el-Rahim, I. H., Abd el-Hakim, U., & Hussein, M. (1999). An epizootic of Rift Valley fever in Egypt in 1997. Rev. Sci. Tech., 18, 741–748. Google Scholar
- Abdo-Salem, S., Tran, A., Grosbois, V., Gerbier, G., Al-Qadasi, M., Saeed, K., Etter, E., Thiry, E., Roger, F., & Chevalier, V. (2011a). Can environmental and socioeconomic factors explain the recent emergence of Rift Valley fever in Yemen, 2000–2001? Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis., 11, 773–779. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Chamchod, F., Cantrell, R. S., Cosner, C., Hassan, A., Beier, J. C., & Ruan, S. (2012, submitted). A modeling approach to investigate epizootic outbreaks and enzootic maintenance of Rift Valley fever virus. Google Scholar
- Gad, A. M., Feinsod, F. M., Allam, I. H., Eisa, M., Hassan, A. N., Soliman, B. A., el Said, S., & Saah, A. J. (1986). A possible route for the introduction of Rift Valley fever virus into Egypt during 1977. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 89, 233–236. Google Scholar
- Meegan, J. M., Khalil, G. M., Hoogstraal, H., & Adham, F. K. (1980). Experimental transmission and field isolation studies implicating Culex pipiens as a vector of Rift Valley fever virus in Egypt. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 29, 1405–1410. Google Scholar
- World Health Organization (2010). Rift Valley fever, fact sheet no. 207. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs207/en/.