Advertisement

Journal of Urban Health

, Volume 96, Issue 2, pp 235–251 | Cite as

Urban Heat Island and Future Climate Change—Implications for Delhi’s Heat

  • Richa SharmaEmail author
  • Hans Hooyberghs
  • Dirk Lauwaet
  • Koen De Ridder
Article

Abstract

UrbClim, the urban climate model, is used for short- and long-term projections of climate for Delhi. The projections are performed for RCP8.5 using an ensemble of 11 GCM model outputs. Various heat stress indices were employed to understand the role of urban heat island (UHI) in influencing the present and future urban climate of the city. UHI intensity based on 5% warmest nights (TNp95) was 4.1 °C and exhibits negligible change over time. However, the impact of UHI on other heat stress indices is very strong. Combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT) that influenced 58–70% of the reference time frame are expected to rise to 68–77% in near-future and to 91–97% in far-future time periods. For reference time period, urban areas experience 2.3 more number of heat wave days (NHWD) than rural areas per summer season. This difference increases to 7.1 in short-term and 13.8 in long-term projections. Similar to this trend, frequency of heat waves (FHW) for urban areas is also expected to increase from 0.8 each summer season in reference time frame to 2.1 and 5.1 in short- and long-term projections. The urban-rural difference for duration of heat waves (DHW) appears to increase from 1.7 days in past to 2.3 and 2.2 days in future, illustrating that DHW for cities will be higher than non-urban areas at least by 2 days. The intensity of heat wave (IHW) for urban land uses increases from 40 °C in reference time frame to 45 °C in short-term projection to 49 °C in far future. These values for non-urban land use were 33 °C during the baseline time period and are expected to increase to 42 °C and 46 °C in near- and far-future time frames. The results clearly indicate the contribution of UHI effects in intensifying the impacts of extreme heat and heat stress in the city.

Keywords

UrbClim Urban heat island Climate change Heat waves 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The work described in this paper has received funding from the European Community’s 7th Framework Programme under Grant Agreements Nos. 308497 (RAMSES) and 308299 (NACLIM), and from the BELSPO through its Brain.be project (CORDEX.be). The authors also acknowledge the use of data from ECMWF, NCDC and NASA. The authors thankfully acknowledge the WUDAPT for using their LCZ classification methodology.

References

  1. 1.
    Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R. Perception of climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2012;109(37):E2415–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Ando A, Camm J, Polasky S, Solow A. Species distributions, land values, and efficient conservation. Science. 1998;279(5359):2126–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Hajat S, Armstrong B, Baccini M, Biggeri A, Bisanti L, Russo A, et al. Impact of high temperatures on mortality: is there an added heat wave effect? Epidemiology. 2006;17(6):632–8.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Kilbourne EM. 1997. Heat waves and hot environments. The public health consequences of disasters 245–269.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Sartor F, Snacken R, Demuth C, Walckiers D. Temperature, ambient ozone levels, and mortality during summer, 1994, in Belgium. Environ Res. 1995;70(2):105–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Semenza JC, Rubin CH, Falter KH, Selanikio JD, Flanders WD, Howe HL, et al. Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. N Engl J Med. 1996;335(2):84–90.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Knowlton K, Rotkin-Ellman M, King G, Margolis HG, Smith D, Solomon G, et al. The 2006 California heat wave: impacts on hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Environ Health Perspect. 2009;117(1):61–7.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Zander KK, Botzen WJ, Oppermann E, Kjellstrom T, Garnett ST. Heat stress causes substantial labour productivity loss in Australia. Nat Clim Chang. 2015;5(7):647–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2013.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Robine JM, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, et al. Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol. 2008;331(2):171–8.Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Green HK, Andrews NJ, Bickler G, Pebody RG. Rapid estimation of excess mortality: nowcasting during the heatwave alert in England and Wales in June 2011. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2012;66(10):866–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Matsueda M. Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010. Geophys Res Lett. 2011;38(6).Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Department of Health & Human Services. Heatwave Plan England. 2012;2012.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Whitman S, Good G, Donoghue ER, Benbow N, Shou W, Mou S. Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Am J Public Health. 1997;87(9):1515–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Guirguis K, Gershunov A, Tardy A, Basu R. The impact of recent heat waves on human health in California. J Appl Meteorol Climatol. 2014;53(1):3–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Kysely J, Kim J. Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: how exceptional was the 1994 heat wave? Clim Res. 2009;38(2):105–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Nishi M, Pelling M, Yamamuro M, Solecki W, Kraines S. Risk management regime and its scope for transition in Tokyo. J Extreme Events. 2016;3(03):1650011.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Azhar GS, Mavalankar D, Nori-Sarma A, Rajiva A, Dutta P, Jaiswal A, et al. Heat-related mortality in India: excess all-cause mortality associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad heat wave. PLoS One. 2014;9(3):e91831.Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Masood I, Majid Z, Sohail S, Zia A, Raza S. The deadly heat wave of Pakistan, June 2015. Int J Occup Environ Med. 2015;6(4 October):672–247.Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    Hanna EG, Tait PW. Limitations to thermoregulation and acclimatization challenge human adaptation to global warming. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015;12(7):8034–74.  https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120708034.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Anderson GB, Bell ML. Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 US communities. Environ Health Perspect. 2011;119(2):210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Kent ST, McClure LA, Zaitchik BF, Smith TT, Gohlke JM. Heat waves and health outcomes in Alabama (USA): the importance of heat wave definition. Environ Health Persp (Online). 2014;122(2):151–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Alexander LV, Arblaster JM. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. Int J Climatol. 2009;29(3):417–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Frich P, Alexander L, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Tank AK, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res. 2002;19(3):193–212.Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Alexander L, Zhang X, Peterson T, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res: Atmosp 111(D5).Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    Garssen J, Harmsen C, De Beer J. 2005. The effect of the summer 2003 heat wave on mortality in the Netherlands. Text.Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    CMA. 2012. Heat wave. Chinese Meteorological Association. Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    Chestnut LG, Breffle WS, Smith JB, Kalkstein LS. Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related mortality across 44 US metropolitan areas. Environ Sci Pol. 1998;1(1):59–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli E, Martinelli M, Kunst AE, Mackenbach JP, et al. Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. BMJ: Br Med J. 2000;321(7262):670–3.Google Scholar
  30. 30.
    Dousset B, Gourmelon F, Laaidi K, Zeghnoun A, Giraudet E, Bretin P, et al. Satellite monitoring of summer heat waves in the Paris metropolitan area. Int J Climatol. 2011;31(2):313–23.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2222.
  31. 31.
    Jusuf SK, Wong NH, Hagen E, Anggoro R, Hong Y. The influence of land use on the urban heat island in Singapore. Habitat Int. 2007;31(2):232–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Stone B, Hess JJ, Frumkin H. Urban form and extreme heat events: are sprawling cities more vulnerable to climate change than compact cities. Environ Health Perspect. 2010;118(10):1425–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Zhao L, Lee X, Smith RB, Oleson K. Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands. Nature. 2014;511(7508):216–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. 34.
    Cheema AR. Pakistan: high-rise buildings worsened heatwave. Nature. 2015;524(7563):35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Saeed F, Suleri AQ. Future Heatwaves in Pakistan under IPCC’s AR5 climate change scenario. Islamabad, Pakistan: Policy Brief. Sustainable Development Policy Institute; 2015.Google Scholar
  36. 36.
    Attri S, Tyagi A. Climate profile of India. Contribution to the Indian network of climate change assessment (NATIONAL COMMUNICATION-II). Ministry Environ Forests. 2010;1501:1–129.Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    Knowlton K, Kulkarni PS, Azhar SG, Mavalankar D, Jaiswal A, Connolly M, et al. Development and implementation of South Asia’s first heat-health action plan in Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India). Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014;11(4):3473–92.  https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110403473.
  38. 38.
    Guerreiro SB, Dawson RJ, Kilsby C, Lewis E, Ford A. Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities. Environ Res Lett. 2018;13(3):034009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    Adachi SA, Kimura F, Kusaka H, Inoue T, Ueda H. Comparison of the impact of global climate changes and urbanization on summertime future climate in the Tokyo metropolitan area. J Appl Meteorol Climatol. 2012;51(8):1441–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Argüesoa, D., Evansa, J.P., Fitaa, L. and Bormannab, K.J., 2013. Simulated impact of urban expansion on future temperature heatwaves in Sydney. In 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.Google Scholar
  41. 41.
    Demuzere, M., De Ridder, K. and Van Lipzig, N.P.M. 2008. Modeling the energy balance in Marseille: sensitivity to roughness length parameterizations and thermal admittance. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113(D16).Google Scholar
  42. 42.
    De Ridder K, Lauwaet D, Maiheu B. UrbClim–a fast urban boundary layer climate model. Urban Climate. 2015;12:21–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. 43.
    García-Díez M, Lauwaet D, Hooyberghs H, Ballester J, De Ridder K, Rodó X. Advantages of using a fast urban boundary layer model as compared to a full mesoscale model to simulate the urban heat island of Barcelona. Geosci Model Dev. 2016;9(12):4439–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    Lauwaet D, De Ridder K, Saeed S, Brisson E, Chatterjee F, van Lipzig N, et al. Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels. Urban Climate. 2016;15:1–15.Google Scholar
  45. 45.
    Lauwaet D, Hooyberghs H, Maiheu B, Lefebvre W, Driesen G, Van Looy S, et al. Detailed urban heat island projections for cities worldwide: dynamical downscaling CMIP5 global climate models. Climate. 2015;3(2):391–415.Google Scholar
  46. 46.
    Danielson JJ, Gesch DB. 2011. Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010). US Geological Survey.Google Scholar
  47. 47.
    Bechtel B, Alexander P, Böhner J, Ching J, Conrad O, Feddema J, et al. Mapping local climate zones for a worldwide database of the form and function of cities. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inform. 2015;4(1):199–219.Google Scholar
  48. 48.
    Mills, G., Ching, J., See, L., Bechtel, B. and Foley, M. 2015. An introduction to the WUDAPT project. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Urban Climate, Toulouse, France (July): 20-24.Google Scholar
  49. 49.
    Gutman G, Ignatov A. The derivation of the green vegetation fraction from NOAA/AVHRR data for use in numerical weather prediction models. Int J Remote Sens. 1998;19(8):1533–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. 50.
    Gerland P, Raftery AE, Ševčíková H, Li N, Gu D, Spoorenberg T, et al. World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science. 2014;346(6206):234–7.Google Scholar
  51. 51.
    Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang. 2011;109:5–31.Google Scholar
  52. 52.
    Agarwal A, Babel MS, Maskey S, Shrestha S, Kawasaki A, Tripathi NK. Analysis of temperature projections in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. Int J Climatol. 2016;36(1):266–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. 53.
    Donat M, Alexander L, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn R, et al. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res-Atmos. 2013;118(5):2098–118.Google Scholar
  54. 54.
    Fischer E, Schär C. Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat Geosci. 2010;3(6):398–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. 55.
    Klein Tank A, Peterson T, Quadir D, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K, Joshi U, Jaswal A, Kolli R. 2006. Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. J Geophysic Res: Atmos 111(D16).Google Scholar
  56. 56.
    Sheikh M, Manzoor N, Ashraf J, Adnan M, Collins D, Hameed S, et al. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. Int J Climatol. 2015;35(7):1625–37.Google Scholar
  57. 57.
    Vincent L, Aguilar E, Saindou M, Hassane A, Jumaux G, Roy D, Booneeady P, Virasami R, Randriamarolaza L, Faniriantsoa F. 2011. Observed trends in indices of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation for the countries of the western Indian Ocean, 1961–2008. J Geophysic Res: Atmos 116(D10).Google Scholar
  58. 58.
    McCarthy MP, Harpham C, Goodess CM, Jones PD. Simulating climate change in UK cities using a regional climate model, HadRM3. Int J Climatol. 2012;32(12):1875–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. 59.
    Oleson K. Contrasts between urban and rural climate in CCSM4 CMIP5 climate change scenarios. J Clim. 2012;25(5):1390–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. 60.
    Lemonsu A, Viguie V, Daniel M, Masson V. Vulnerability to heat waves: impact of urban expansion scenarios on urban heat island and heat stress in Paris (France). Urban Climate. 2015;14:586–605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. 61.
    Hamdi R, Giot O, De Troch R, Deckmyn A, Termonia P. Future climate of Brussels and Paris for the 2050s under the A1B scenario. Urban Clim. 2015;12:160–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. 62.
    Son J-Y, Lee J-T, Gb A, Bell ML. The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea. Environ Health Perspect. 2012;120(4):566–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. 63.
    Anderson BG, Bell ML. Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology (Cambridge Mass). 2009;20(2):205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. 64.
    Díaz J, Jordan A, Garcia R, López C, Alberdi J, Hernández E, et al. Heat waves in Madrid 1986–1997: effects on the health of the elderly. Int Arch Occup Environ Health. 2002;75(3):163–70.Google Scholar
  65. 65.
    Jhajharia D, Shrivastava S, Sarkar D, Sarkar S. Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India. Agric For Meteorol. 2009;149(5):763–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The New York Academy of Medicine 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA)DelhiIndia
  2. 2.Vlaamse instelling voor technologisch onderzoek (VITO)MolBelgium

Personalised recommendations