Skip to main content

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method

Journal of Urban Health volume 94, pages 339–349 (2017)Cite this article

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Nghe An province, Viet Nam, using a novel method of population size estimation, and to assess the feasibility of the method in implementation. An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method, and using social app technology and internet-based surveys was undertaken among MSM in two regions of Viet Nam in 2015. Enumeration of active users of popular social apps for MSM in Viet Nam was conducted over 4 weeks. Subsequently, an independent online survey was done using respondent driven sampling. We also conducted interviews with key informants in Nghe An and HCMC on their experience and perceptions of this method and other methods of size estimation. The population of MSM in Nghe An province was estimated to be 1765 [90% CI 1251–3150]. The population of MSM in HCMC was estimated to be 37,238 [90% CI 24,146–81,422]. These estimates correspond to 0.17% of the adult male population in Nghe An province [90% CI 0.12–0.30], and 1.35% of the adult male population in HCMC [90% CI 0.87–2.95]. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.35% [90% CI 0.87%–2.95%] of the adult male population in HCMC) fall within current standard practice of estimating 1–3% of adult male population in big cities. Our size estimates of the MSM population (0.17% [90% CI 0.12–0.30] of the adult male population in Nghe An province) are lower than the current standard practice of estimating 0.5–1.5% of adult male population in rural provinces. These estimates can provide valuable information for sub-national level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe that our results help to improve application of this population size estimation method in other regions of Viet Nam.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

References

  1. 1.

    Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control. Report on the Results of HIV sentinel surveillance plus behavioral surveys among high-risk populations in Viet Nam (HSS+). Hanoi, Viet Nam: Ministry of Health; 2014.

  2. 2.

    Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control. National HIV/AIDS situation first-quarter report [Online]. Hanoi, Viet Nam; 2014 May 13 [cited 2015 June 2]. Available from: http://vaac.gov.vn/Cms_Data/Contents/Vaac/Folders/Solieubaocao/Solieu/%7Econtents/XTKJNTN9C2WAXA2K/Bao-cao-Quy-1-2014_Final.pdf

  3. 3.

    Brown T, Peerapatanapokin W. The Asian epidemic model: a process model for exploring HIV policy and programme alternatives in Asia. Sex Transm Infect. 2004; 80(Suppl I): i19–i24.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  4. 4.

    Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control. Optimizing Viet Nam’s HIV Response: An Investment Case. Hanoi, Viet Nam: Ministry of Health; 2014.

  5. 5.

    Marcus U, Hickson F, Weatherburn P, Schmidt AJ. Estimating the size of the MSM populations for 38 European countries by calculating the survey-surveillance discrepancies between self-reported new HIV diagnoses from the European MSM internet survey and surveillance-reported HIV diagnoses among MSM. BMC Public Health. 2013; 13(1): 919.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  6. 6.

    UNAIDS/WHO. Guidelines on estimating the size of populations most at risk to HIV. 2010. Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/44347/1/9789241599580_eng.pdf. Accessed 15 Sept 2015.

  7. 7.

    Catania JA, Canchola J, Pollack L. Using survey data to estimate the population and distribution of MSM. 2002. Available from: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/aids/Documents/RPT2002UsingSurveyDatatoEstPopMSM.pdf. Accessed 24 June 2015.

  8. 8.

    Nadol P. Size estimation: MSM in Vietnam. 2012. Available from: http://www.aidstar-one.com/sites/default/files/6_Nadol_29.pdf. Accessed 2 June 2015.

  9. 9.

    Nguyen Q, Schoenbach V, Bennett T, Kalsbeek W, Miller W, Huynh P, et al. Estimating the number of men who have sex with men in Ha Noi, Viet Nam by the capture - recapture method. Paper presented at: XVIII International AIDS Conference; 2010 July 18-23; Vienna, Austria.

  10. 10.

    Tuan LA, Tuan NA, Thanh DC, Quang TD, Sabin K. Multiple approaches to population size estimation of injecting drug users (IDU), female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) in three Vietnamese provinces. Poster session presented at: 19th International AIDS Conference; 2012 July 22-27; Washington, DC.

  11. 11.

    Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control. Vietnam AIDS Response Progress Report 2014: Following up the 2011 Political Declaration on HIV AIDS [Online]. 2014 [cited 2015 June 2]. Available from: http://www.unaids.org/en/dataanalysis/knowyourresponse/countryprogressreports/2014countries

  12. 12.

    Johnston L, Prybylski D, Raymond H, Mirzazadeh A, Manopaiboon C, McFarland W. Incorporating the service multiplier method in respondent-driven sampling surveys to estimate the size of hidden and hard-to-reach populations: case studies from around the world. Sex Transm Dis. 2013; 40(4): 304–310.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. 13.

    Do AM. Vietnam’s chat app zalo challenges facebook with 30 million registered users. TechAsia. 2015. Available from: https://www.techinasia.com/zalo-30-million-registered-users-vietnam. Accessed 5 April 2016.

  14. 14.

    Fintechnews Singapore. Mobile phone continues to be Vietnam’s no. 1 device for internet use. Fintechnews Singapore; 2015. Available from: http://fintechnews.sg/855/studies/mobile-phone-vietnams-no-1-device-internet-use. Accessed 5 April 2016.

  15. 15.

    Gudelunas D. There’s an app for that: The uses and gratifications of online social networks for gay men. Sexuality & Culture. 2012 Dec 1; 16(4): 347–365.

  16. 16.

    Silenzio VMB, Duberstein PR, Tang W, Lu N, Tu X, Homan CM. Connecting the invisible dots: reaching lesbian, gay, and bisexual adolescents and young adults at risk for suicide through online social networks. Soc Sci Med. 2009; 69(3): 469–474.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  17. 17.

    Sass E. Social networks extra-popular with gays, lesbians. Media Post. 2010. Available from: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/132022/social-networks-extra-popular-with-gays-lesbians.html. Accessed 19 Jan 2016.

  18. 18.

    Salganik MJ, Mello MB, Abdo AH, Bertoni N, Fazito D, Bastos FI. The game of contacts: estimating the social visibility of groups. Soc Networks. 2011; 33: 70–78.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  19. 19.

    Heckathorn DD, Semaan S, Broadhead RS, Hughes JJ. Extensions of respondent-driven sampling: a New approach to the study of injection drug users aged 18–25. AIDS Behav. 2002; 6(1): 55–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. 20.

    Johnston LG, Malekinejad M, Kendall C, Iuppa IM, Rutherford GW. Implementation challenges to using respondent-driven sampling methodology for HIV biological and behavioral surveillance: field experiences in International settings. AIDS Behav. 2008; 12(Suppl 1): 131–141.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. 21.

    Gile KJ, Johnston LG, Salganik MJ. Diagnostics for respondent-driven sampling authors. J Royal Stat Soc: Ser A (Stat Soc). 2015; 178(1): 241–269.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. 22.

    Stahlman S, Johnston LG, Yah C, Ketende S, Maziya S, Trapence G, et al. Respondent-driven sampling as a recruitment method for men who have sex with men in southern sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional analysis by wave. Sex Transm Infect. 2016; 92(4): 292–298.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. 23.

    Handcock MS, Fellows IE, Gile KJ. RDS Analyst: Software for the analysis of respondent-driven sampling data [Online]. 2014 [cited 2015 June 2]. Available from: http://hpmrg.org

  24. 24.

    Statistical Office in Ho Chi Minh City. socio-economic information. Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam; 2015. Available from: http://www.pso.hochiminhcity.gov.vn. Accessed 23 March 2016.

  25. 25.

    General Statistics Office of Viet Nam. Statistical data: population and employment. Hanoi, Viet Nam: Ministry of Planning and Investment; 2014. Available from: https://www.gso.gov.vn. Accessed 23 March 2016.

  26. 26.

    General Statistics Office of Viet Nam. Viet Nam population and housing census 2009: age-sex structure and marital status of the population in Viet Nam. Hanoi: Ministry of Planning and Investment; 2009.

  27. 27.

    Statistical Office in Ho Chi Minh City. Population and population density in 2011 by district. Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam; 2011.

  28. 28.

    Maniaci MR, Rogge RD. Caring about carelessness: participant inattention and its effects on research. J Res Pers. 2014; 48: 61–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. 29.

    Smith S. 4 Ways to ensure valid responses for your online survey. Qualtrics. 2013. Available from: https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/online-survey-valid-responses. Accessed 30 March 2016.

  30. 30.

    Richarme M, Rogers F. The honesty of online survey respondents: Lessons learned and prescriptive remedies. Decision Analyst. 2009. Available from: http://www.decisionanalyst.com/publ_art/onlinerespondents.dai. Accessed 30 March 2016.

  31. 31.

    Marcus U, Hickson F, Weatherburn P, Schmidt AJ. Estimating the size of the MSM populations for 38 European countries by calculating the survey-surveillance discrepancies (SSD) between self-reported new HIV diagnoses from the European MSM internet survey (EMIS) and surveillance-reported HIV diagnoses among MSM in 2009. BMC Public Health. 2013; 13(1): 1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. 32.

    Liau A, Millett G, Marks G. Meta-analytic examination of online sex-seeking and sexual risk behavior among men who have sex with men. Sex Transm Dis. 2006; 33(9): 576–84.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  33. 33.

    Curry T. Grindr fatigue and the dehumanization of gay men HIV Equal Online. 2015. Available from: http://www.hivequal.org/hiv-equal-online/grindr-fatigue-and-the-dehumanization-of-gay-men. Accessed 5 April 2016.

Download references

Acknowledgements

Special thanks are extended to Abu S. Abdul-Quader (Senior Strategic Information Adviser, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) for his valuable guidance and advice, from reviewing the methodology, to insights provided during the implementation, to reviewing the results. We also appreciate the professional work of the interviewers, Nguyen Thien Nga and Huynh Lan Phuong, and the community organizations, iSEE and ICS, the provincial AIDS Committee in Nghe An province and Ho Chi Minh City, and all the respondents who spent their time to inform and improve the estimations and methods. This study was made possible with financial support from UNAIDS (award 59825, 61545). The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of their affiliated organizations.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. UNAIDS, Hanoi, Viet Nam

    Ali Safarnejad & Nguyen Thien Nga

  2. Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control (VAAC), Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Viet Nam

    Vo Hai Son

Authors
  1. Ali Safarnejad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Nguyen Thien Nga
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Vo Hai Son
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Safarnejad.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Safarnejad, A., Nga, N.T. & Son, V.H. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method. J Urban Health 94, 339–349 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-016-0123-0

Download citation

Keywords

  • Viet Nam
  • Size estimation
  • Most at-risk populations
  • HIV AIDS
  • HIV surveillance
  • Social network
  • RDS