Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering

, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 326–350

Assessing historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system

  • Anna Shchiptsova
  • Jiangjiang Zhao
  • Arnulf Grubler
  • Arkady Kryazhimskiy
  • Tieju Ma
Article
  • 77 Downloads

Abstract

This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations followed from calibration results are discussed.

Keywords

Agent-based modeling calibration energy system 

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Copyright information

© Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anna Shchiptsova
    • 1
  • Jiangjiang Zhao
    • 2
  • Arnulf Grubler
    • 1
    • 3
  • Arkady Kryazhimskiy
    • 1
    • 4
  • Tieju Ma
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.East China University of Science and TechnologyShanghaiChina
  3. 3.School of Forestry and Environmental StudiesYale UniversityNew HavenUSA
  4. 4.Steklov Mathematical InstituteRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussia

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