Journal of Geographical Sciences

, Volume 28, Issue 11, pp 1700–1714 | Cite as

Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach

  • Zhan Tian
  • Yinghao Ji
  • Laixiang Sun
  • Xinliang Xu
  • Dongli Fan
  • Honglin Zhong
  • Zhuoran Liang
  • Ficsher Gunther


Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.


climate change rapeseed production AEZ Yangtze River Basin 


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We thank Elisa Calliari from Ca’Foscari University of Venice for providing valuable advice on the revision of the article.


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Copyright information

© Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Science China Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Zhan Tian
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Yinghao Ji
    • 1
    • 2
  • Laixiang Sun
    • 4
    • 5
  • Xinliang Xu
    • 7
  • Dongli Fan
    • 1
  • Honglin Zhong
    • 4
  • Zhuoran Liang
    • 6
  • Ficsher Gunther
    • 5
  1. 1.Shanghai Institute of TechnologyShanghaiChina
  2. 2.Shanghai Climate CenterShanghai Meteorological BureauShanghaiChina
  3. 3.School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSouthern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen, GuangdongChina
  4. 4.Department of Geographical SciencesUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkUSA
  5. 5.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
  6. 6.Hangzhou Meteorological BureauHangzhouChina
  7. 7.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijingChina

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