Chinese Science Bulletin

, Volume 58, Issue 12, pp 1427–1435

East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Open Access
Article SPECIAL ISSUE: Extreme Climate in China

DOI: 10.1007/s11434-012-5533-0

Cite this article as:
Jiang, D. & Tian, Z. Chin. Sci. Bull. (2013) 58: 1427. doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5533-0


Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980–1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased northwest-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.


global warming East Asian monsoon climate models projection 

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East AsiaChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Climate Change Research CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

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