Chinese Science Bulletin

, Volume 51, Issue 17, pp 2125–2132 | Cite as

A subfossil chironomid-total phosphorus inference model for lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

  • Zhang Enlou 
  • Alan Bedford
  • Richard Jones
  • Shen Ji Email author
  • Wang Sumin 
  • Tang Hongqu 


The results of an investigation into the relationship between surface sediment subfossil chironomid distribution and water quality are presented. Data from 30 lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River indicate that the nutrient gradient was the major factor affecting the distribution of chironomids across these sites. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that of 12 summer water environmental variables, total Phosphorus was most important, accounting for 20.1% of the variance in the chironomid data. This was significant enough to allow the development of quantitative inference models. A TP inference model was developed using weighted averaging (WA), partial least squares (PLS) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). An optimal two-component WA-PLS model provided a high jack-knifed coefficient of prediction for conductivity r 2 jack = 0.76, with a low root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack = 0.13). Using this model it is possible to produce long-term quantitative records of past water quality for lacustrine sites across the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which has important implications for future lake management and ecological restoration.


lake subfossil chironomid TP inference models middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River 


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Copyright information

© Science in China Press 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Zhang Enlou 
    • 1
  • Alan Bedford
    • 2
  • Richard Jones
    • 3
  • Shen Ji 
    • 1
    Email author
  • Wang Sumin 
    • 1
  • Tang Hongqu 
    • 4
  1. 1.Nanjing Institute of Geography & LimnologyChinese Academy of SciencesNanjingChina
  2. 2.Natural Geographical and Applied SciencesEdge Hill CollegeOrmskirkUK
  3. 3.Department of GeographyUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
  4. 4.School of BiologyNankai UniversityTianjinChina

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