Analyzing market performance via social media: a case study of a banking industry crisis
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- Jiang, C., Liang, K., Chen, H. et al. Sci. China Inf. Sci. (2014) 57: 1. doi:10.1007/s11432-013-4860-3
Analyzing market performance via social media has attracted a great deal of attention in the finance and machine- learning disciplines. However, the vast majority of research does not consider the enormous influence a crisis has on social media that further affects the relationship between social media and the stock market. This article aims to address these challenges by proposing a multistage dynamic analysis framework. In this framework, we use an authorship analysis technique and topic model method to identify stakeholder groups and topics related to a special firm. We analyze the activities of stakeholder groups and topics in different periods of a crisis to evaluate the crisis’s influence on various social media parameters. Then, we construct a stock regression model in each stage of crisis to analyze the relationships of changes among stakeholder groups/topics and stock behavior during a crisis. Finally, we discuss some interesting and significant results, which show that a crisis affects social media discussion topics and that different stakeholder groups/topics have distinct effects on stock market predictions during each stage of a crisis.