Science China Earth Sciences

, Volume 61, Issue 3, pp 302–316 | Cite as

A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China

  • XiaoQian Liu
  • Tao Pei
  • ChengHu Zhou
  • YunYan Du
  • Ting Ma
  • ChuanJie Xie
  • Jun Xu
Research Paper
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Abstract

Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025–2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.

Keywords

System dynamics model Stella Resource-based city Multiple adaptive scenarios 
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Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41590845 & 41601096) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2015M581160).

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Copyright information

© Science China Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • XiaoQian Liu
    • 1
    • 2
  • Tao Pei
    • 2
    • 3
  • ChengHu Zhou
    • 2
  • YunYan Du
    • 2
  • Ting Ma
    • 2
  • ChuanJie Xie
    • 2
  • Jun Xu
    • 2
  1. 1.College of Arts and Science of Beijing Union UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and ApplicationNanjingChina

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