Science China Earth Sciences

, Volume 57, Issue 9, pp 2148–2155 | Cite as

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

Research Paper

Abstract

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger (weaker) NAO corresponding to more (fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO-WNPTCF relationship.

Keywords

tropical cyclone frequency North Atlantic Oscillation interdecadal change wave activity flux atmospheric circulation 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Archambault H M, Keyser D, Bosart L F. 2010. Relationships between large-scale regime transitions and major cool-season precipitation events in the Northeastern United States. Mon Weather Rev, 138: 3454–3473CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Branstator G. 2002. Circumglobal teleconnections, the jet stream waveguide, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim, 15: 1893–1910CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Camargo S J, Sobel A H. 2005. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim, 18: 2996–006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chan J C L. 2000. Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim, 13: 2960–2972CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chang C P, Harr P, Ju J. 2001. Possible roles of Atlantic circulations on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall-ENSO relationship. J Clim, 14: 2376–2380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chen L S, Ding Y H. 1979. Summary of Tropical Cyclones Over Western North Pacific (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press. 1–10Google Scholar
  7. Chia H H, Ropelewski C F. 2002. The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. J Clim, 15: 2934–2944CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Ding Y H, Reiter E R. 1983. Large-scale circulation influencing the typhoon formation over the West Pacific (in Chinese). Acta Oceanol, 5: 561–574Google Scholar
  9. Fan K. 2007a. North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency? Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 50: 1251–1257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Fan K. 2007b. New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 50: 1417–1423CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Folland C K, Knight J, Linderholm H W, et al. 2009. The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present, and future. J Clim, 22: 1082–1103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Franzke C, Lee S, Feldstein S B. 2004. Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a breaking wave? J Atmos Sci, 61: 145–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gray W M. 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon Weather Rev, 96: 669–700CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Ho C H, Baik J J, Kim J H, et al. 2004. Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Clim, 17: 1767–1776CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Ho C H, Kim J H, Kim H S, et al. 2005. Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res, 110: D19104, doi: 10.1029/2005JD005766CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hoskins B J, Ambrizzi T. 1993. Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J Atmos Sci, 50: 1661–1671CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hurrell J W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269: 676–679CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hurrell J W. 1996. Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 665–668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hurrell J W, van Loon H. 1997. Decadal variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Change, 36: 301–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Jung T, Hilmer M, Ruprecht E, et al. 2003. Characteristics of the recent eastward shift of interannual NAO variability. J Clim, 16: 3371–3382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kalnay E, Kanamistu M, Kistler R, et al. 1996. NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 77: 437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Lau K M, Lee J Y, Kim K M, et al. 2004. The North Pacific as a regulator of summertime climate over Eurasia and North America. J Clim, 17: 819–833CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Liebmann B, Hendon H H, Glick J D. 1994. The relationship between tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 72: 401–411Google Scholar
  24. Linderholm H W, Ou T, Jeong J H, et al. 2011. Interannual teleconnections between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res, 116: D13107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Mokhov I I, Smirnov D A. 2006: El Niño-Southern Oscillation drives North Atlantic Oscillation as revealed with nonlinear techniques from climatic indices. Geophys Res Lett, 33: doi:10. 1029/2005GL024557Google Scholar
  26. Nakazawa T. 1988. Tropical super clusters within intraseasonal variations over the western Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 66: 823–839Google Scholar
  27. Ogi M, Tachibana Y, Yamazaki K. 2004. The connectivity of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the summer Okhotsk high. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 82: 905–913CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Pekarova P, Pekar J. 2007. Teleconnection of interannual streamflow fluctuation in Slovakia with Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, and Quasi-biennial Oscillation phenomena. Adv Atmos Sci, 24: 655–663CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Pozo-Vázquez D, Esteban-Parra M J, Rodrigo F S, et al. 2001. The association between ENSO and winter atmospheric circulation and temperature in the North Atlantic region. J Clim, 16: 3408–3420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rogers J C. 1984. The association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev, 112: 1999–2015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Song J, Li C Y, Zhou W, et al. 2009. The linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Adv Atmos Sci, 26: 229–239CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W. 2008. Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and middle East Asian air temperature. J Geophys Res, 113: D15107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Sun J Q, Wang H J. 2012. Changes of the connection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer rainfall. J Geophys Res, 117: D08110Google Scholar
  34. Sung M K, Kwon W T, Baek H J. 2006. A possible impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L21713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Takaya K, Nakamura H. 2001. A Formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci, 58: 608–627CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Tan G Y, Chen H S, Sun Z B, et al. 2010. Linkage of the cold event in January 2008 over China to the North Atlantic Oscillation and stratospheric circulation anomalies (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 34: 175–183Google Scholar
  37. Trenberth K E, Branstator G W, Karoly D, et al. 1998. Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J Geophys Res, 103: 14291–14324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Walker G T, Bliss E W. 1932. World Weather V. Mem R Meteorol Soc, 4: 53–84Google Scholar
  39. Wallace J M, Gutzler D S. 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev, 109: 784–812CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Wang B. 1995. Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades. J Clim, 8: 267–285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wang B, Chan J C L. 2002. How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim, 15: 1643–1658CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wang H J, Sun J Q, Fan K. 2007. Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 50: 1409–1416CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wang H J, Fan K. 2007. Relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and the western North Pacific typhoon frequency. Chin Sci Bull, 52: 561–565CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Wang X, Wang D X, Zhou W. 2009. Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Niño and La Niña occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophys Res Lett, 36: L11701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Watanabe M. 2004. Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim, 17: 4674–4691CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Wu B Y, Huang Y H. 1999. Effects of the Extremes in the North Atlantic Oscillation on East Asia Winter Monsoon (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 23: 641–651Google Scholar
  47. Wu Z W, Wang B, Li J P, et al. 2009. An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res, 114: D18120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Wu Z W, Li J P, Jiang Z H, et al. 2012. Possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the strengthening relationship between the East Asian Summer monsoon and ENSO. Int J Climatol, 32: 794–800CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Yang L M, Zhang Q Y. 2008. Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the summer rainfall anomalies in Xinjiang (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 32: 1187–1196Google Scholar
  50. Zhou B T, Cui X. 2008. Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res, 113: D16107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zhou B T, Cui X, Zhao P. 2008. Relationship between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 38: 118–123Google Scholar
  52. Zhou B T, Cui X. 2010. Sea surface temperature east of Australia: A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific? Chin Sci Bull, 55: 1963–3059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Zou Y, Zhao P. 2009. Relation of summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation to tropical cyclone activities over the coastal waters of China (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 67: 708–715Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina
  2. 2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjingChina
  3. 3.Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations