Uncertainty in life cycle costing for long-range infrastructure. Part I: leveling the playing field to address uncertainties

  • Patrick Ilg
  • Christoph Scope
  • Stefan Muench
  • Edeltraud Guenther



Life cycle costing (LCC) is a state-of-the-art method to analyze investment decisions in infrastructure projects. However, uncertainties inherent in long-term planning question the credibility of LCC results. Previous research has not systematically linked sources and methods to address this uncertainty. Part I of this series develops a framework to collect and categorize different sources of uncertainty and addressing methods. This systematization is a prerequisite to further analyze the suitability of methods and levels the playing field for part II.


Past reviews have dealt with selected issues of uncertainty in LCC. However, none has systematically collected uncertainties and linked methods to address them. No comprehensive categorization has been published to date. Part I addresses these two research gaps by conducting a systematic literature review. In a rigorous four-step approach, we first scrutinized major databases. Second, we performed a practical and methodological screening to identify in total 115 relevant publications, mostly case studies. Third, we applied content analysis using MAXQDA. Fourth, we illustrated results and concluded upon the research gaps.

Results and discussion

We identified 33 sources of uncertainty and 24 addressing methods. Sources of uncertainties were categorized according to (i) its origin, i.e., parameter, model, and scenario uncertainty and (ii) the nature of uncertainty, i.e., aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty. The methods to address uncertainties were classified into deterministic, probabilistic, possibilistic, and other methods. With regard to sources of uncertainties, lack of data and data quality was analyzed most often. Most uncertainties having been discussed were located in the use stage. With regard to methods, sensitivity analyses were applied most widely, while more complex methods such as Bayesian models were used less frequently. Data availability and the individual expertise of LCC practitioner foremost influence the selection of methods.


This article complements existing research by providing a thorough systematization of uncertainties in LCC. However, an unambiguous categorization of uncertainties is difficult and overlapping occurs. Such a systemizing approach is nevertheless necessary for further analyses and levels the playing field for readers not yet familiar with the topic. Part I concludes the following: First, an investigation about which methods are best suited to address a certain type of uncertainty is still outstanding. Second, an analysis of types of uncertainty that have been insufficiently addressed in previous LCC cases is still missing. Part II will focus on these research gaps.


Cost of ownership Data variability Infrastructure Life cycle costing (LCC) Uncertainty Whole-life costing 



Patrick Ilg thanks the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for funding the program “Twenty20—Partnership for Innovation” and the entailed project “Carbon Concrete Composite.” Moreover, we thank Thomas Swarr and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback to an earlier version of this article.

Supplementary material

11367_2016_1154_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (1.3 mb)
ESM 1 (PDF 1.31 mb)


  1. Aissani A, Chateauneuf A, Fontaine J-P, Audebert P (2014) Cost model for optimum thicknesses of insulated walls considering indirect impacts and uncertainties. Energy Build 84:21–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Allacker K (2012) Environmental and economic optimisation of the floor on grade in residential buildings. Int J Life Cycle Assess 17:813–827CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. American Society of Civil Engineers (2015) J Infrastruct SystGoogle Scholar
  4. Ammar M, Zayed T, Moselhi O (2013) Fuzzy-based life-cycle cost model for decision making under subjectivity. J Constr Eng Manage 139:556–563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Andrade AR, Teixeira PF (2012) A Bayesian model to assess rail track geometry degradation through its life-cycle. Res Transp Econ 36:1–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Anwari M, Rashid M, Muhyiddin H, Ali A (2012) An evaluation of hybrid wind/diesel energy potential in Pemanggil Island Malaysia. IEEE, pp 1–5Google Scholar
  7. Apostolakis G (1990) The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science 250:1359–1364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Asiedu Y, Besant RW (2000) Simulation-based cost estimation under economic uncertainty using kernel estimators. Int J Prod Res 38:2023–2035CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Asiedu Y, Gu P (1998) Product life cycle cost analysis: state of the art review. Int J Prod Res 36:883–908CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ayyub BM (2001) Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks. CRC PressGoogle Scholar
  11. Battke B, Schmidt TS, Grosspietsch D, Hoffmann VH (2013) A review and probabilistic model of lifecycle costs of stationary batteries in multiple applications. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 25:240–250CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Becheikh N, Landry R, Amara N (2006) Lessons from innovation empirical studies in the manufacturing sector: a systematic review of the literature from 1993–2003. Technovation 26:644–664CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Bedford T, Cooke R (2001) Probabilistic risk analysis: foundations and methods. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  14. Bevington PR, Robinson DK (1992) Error analysis. Data Reduct Error Anal Phys Sci 38–48Google Scholar
  15. Björklund AE (2002) Survey of approaches to improve reliability in LCA. Int J Life Cycle Assess 7:64–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Book SA (1999) Why correlation matters in cost estimating. pp 2–5Google Scholar
  17. Boussabaine HA, Kirkham RJ (2004) Whole life risk analysis techniques. In: Whole life-cycle costing: risk and risk responses. Blackwell Publishing Ltd, pp 56–83Google Scholar
  18. Budnitz RJ, Apostolakis G, Boore DM et al (1997) Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of expertsGoogle Scholar
  19. Butry D (2009) Economic performance of residential fire sprinkler systems. Fire Technol 45:117–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Cavalieri S, Maccarrone P, Pinto R (2004) Parametric vs. neural network models for the estimation of production costs: a case study in the automotive industry. Int J Prod Econ 91:165–177CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Chen C (2007) Soft computing-based life-cycle cost analysis tools for transportation infrastructure managementGoogle Scholar
  22. Chien SI-J, Ding Y, Wei C (2002) Dynamic bus arrival time prediction with artificial neural networks. J Transp Eng 128:429–438CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Cole RJ, Sterner E (2000) Reconciling theory and practice of life-cycle costing. Build Res Inf 28:368–375CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Cole RC, Morandi F, Avenell J, Daniel GB (2005) Trans-splenic portal scintigraphy in normal dogs. Vet Radiol Ultrasound 46:146–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Dalkey N, Helmer O (1963) An experimental application of the DELPHI method to the use of experts. Manag Sci 9:458–467CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Danaher AC (2012) Incorporating externalities and uncertainty into life-cycle cost analysis. DTIC documentGoogle Scholar
  27. De Leon D, Diaz Camacho S, Gonzalez Perez CA (2013) Reliability-based optimal next inspection time of prestressed concrete bridges including the effect of corrosion deterioration. Rev Tec Fac Ing Univ Zulia 36:114–121Google Scholar
  28. Der Kiureghian A, Ditlevsen O (2007) Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter? Special workshop on risk acceptance and risk communication, March 26–27, 2007. Stanford University, StanfordGoogle Scholar
  29. Dhillon BS (1981) Life cycle cost: a survey. Microelectron Reliab 21:495–511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Domínguez-Muñoz F, Cejudo-López JM, Carrillo-Andrés A (2010) Uncertainty in peak cooling load calculations. Energy Build 42:1010–1018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Durango-Cohen P, Tadepalli N (2006) Using advanced inspection technologies to support investments in maintenance and repair of transportation infrastructure facilities. J Transp Eng 132:60–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ehlen MA, Marshall HE (1996) The economics of new-technology materials: a case study of FRP bridge decking. US Department of Commerce, Technology Administration, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Office of Applied Economics, Building and Fire Research LaboratoryGoogle Scholar
  33. El-Diraby TE, Rasic I (2004) Framework for managing life-cycle cost of smart infrastructure systems. J Comput Civ Eng 18:115–119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Emblemsvåg J, Bras B (1997) Method for life-cycle design cost assessments using activity-based costing and uncertainty. Eng Des Autom 3:339–354Google Scholar
  35. Fernandes P, Roy R, Mehnen J, Harrison A (2011) An overview on degradation modelling for service cost estimation. In: Functional thinking for value creation. Springer, pp 309–314Google Scholar
  36. Fink A (2013) Conducting research literature reviews: from the internet to paper. Sage Publications, Thousand OaksGoogle Scholar
  37. Francis R, Falconi S, Nateghi R, Guikema S (2011) Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments. Clim Change 106:31–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Funtowicz SO, Ravetz JR (1990) Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. Springer Science & Business MediaGoogle Scholar
  39. Fwa TF, Tan CY, Chan WT (1994) Road-maintenance planning using genetic algorithms. II: analysisGoogle Scholar
  40. GAO (2007) Cost assessment guide best practices for estimating and managing program costs. US Government Accountability Office, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  41. Geisler G, Hellweg S, Hungerbühler K (2005) Uncertainty analysis in life cycle assessment (LCA): case study on plant-protection products and implications for decision making. Int J Life Cycle Assess 10:184–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Gluch P, Baumann H (2004) The life cycle costing (LCC) approach: a conceptual discussion of its usefulness for environmental decision-making. Build Environ 39:571–580CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Goh YM, Newnes LB, Mileham AR et al (2010) Uncertainty in through-life costing—review and perspectives. IEEE Trans Eng Manag 57:689–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Greenberg M, Mayer H, Lewis D (2004) Life‐cycle cost in a highly uncertain economic environment: the case of managing the US Department of Energy’s nuclear waste legacy. Fed Facil Environ J 15:67–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Guo T, Liu T, Li A (2012) Pavement rehabilitation strategy selection for steel suspension bridges based on probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis. J Perform Constr Facil 26:76–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Halog A (2004) An approach to selection of sustainable product improvement alternatives with data uncertainty. J Sustain Prod Des 4:3–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Han G, Srebric J, Enache-Pommer E (2014) Variability of optimal solutions for building components based on comprehensive life cycle cost analysis. Energy Build 79:223–231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Heijungs R, Huijbregts MA (2004) A review of approaches to treat uncertainty in LCA. Osnabruck, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  49. Hellweg S (2001) Time-and site-dependent life cycle assessment of thermal waste treatment processes. Int J Life Cycle Assess 6:46–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Helton JC (1994) Treatment of uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems. Risk Anal 14:483–511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Henrion M, Fischhoff B (2013) Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. Judgm Decis Mak 146Google Scholar
  52. Hinow M, Mevissen M (2011) Substation maintenance strategy adaptation for life-cycle cost reduction using genetic algorithm. IEEE Trans Power Deliv 26:197–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Hofstetter P (1998) Perspectives in life cycle impact assessment: a structured approach to combine models of the technosphere, ecosphere, and valuesphere. Springer Science & Business MediaGoogle Scholar
  54. Hong T, Han S, Lee S (2007) Simulation-based determination of optimal life-cycle cost for FRP bridge deck panels. Autom Constr 16:140–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Huijbregts MA (1998) Application of uncertainty and variability in LCA. Int J Life Cycle Assess 3:273–280CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Huijbregts MA, Gilijamse W, Ragas AM, Reijnders L (2003) Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Environ Sci Technol 37:2600–2608CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Hunkeler DJ, Lichtenvort K, Rebitzer G (2008) Environmental life cycle costing. CRC Press, Boca RatonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Ilg P, Hoehne C, Guenther E (2016) High-performance materials in infrastructure: a review of applied life cycle costing and its drivers—the case of fiber-reinforced composites. J Clean Prod 12:926–945CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Iman RL, Shortencarier MJ (1984) FORTRAN 77 program and user’s guide for the generation of Latin hypercube and random samples for use with computer models. Sandia National Labs, AlbuquerqueCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. ISO 15686–5 (2008) Buildings and constructed assets—service-life planning—part 5: life-cycle costingGoogle Scholar
  61. Isukapalli SS (1999) Uncertainty analysis of transport-transformation models. The State University of New Jersey, RutgersGoogle Scholar
  62. Jochimsen R (1966) Theorie der Infrastrucktur: Grundlagen der marktwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Mohr SiebeckGoogle Scholar
  63. Johnson DR, Willis HH, Curtright AE et al (2011) Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production. Biomass Bioenergy 35:2619–2626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Jung P, Seo J, Lee J (2009) Probabilistic value analysis methodology for public water supply systems. Civ Eng Environ Syst 26:141–155CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Kahneman D, Tversky A (1982) Variants of uncertainty. Cognition 11:143–157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Kantola M, Saari A (2013) Renewable vs. traditional energy management solutions—a Finnish hospital facility case. Renew Energy Int J 57:539–545CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Kavousi-Fard A, Niknam T, Khooban MH (2014) Intelligent stochastic framework to solve the reconfiguration problem from the reliability view. IET Sci Meas Technol 8:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Kayrbekova D, Markeset T, Ghodrati B (2011) Activity-based life cycle cost analysis as an alternative to conventional LCC in engineering design. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag 2:218–225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Kim S, Frangopol DM (2011) Inspection and monitoring planning for RC structures based on minimization of expected damage detection delay. Probab Eng Mech 26:308–320CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Kirkham RJ, Boussabaine AH, Kirkham MP (2002) Stochastic time series forecasting of electricity costs in an NHS acute care hospital building, for use in whole life cycle costing. Eng Constr Archit Manag 9:38–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Kishk M (2004) Combining various facets of uncertainty in whole‐life cost modelling. Constr Manag Econ 22:429–435CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Klauer B, Manstetten R, Petersen T, Schiller J (2013) The art of long-term thinking: a bridge between sustainability science and politics. Ecol Econ 93:79–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Klir GJ (1996) Uncertainty theories, measures, and principles: an overview of personal views and contributions. In: Natke H, Ben-Haim Y (eds.) Uncertainty: a discussion from various points of viewGoogle Scholar
  74. Klöpffer W, Ciroth A (2011) Is LCC relevant in a sustainability assessment? Int J Life Cycle Assess 16:99–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Koopmans TC (1959) Three essays on the state of economic science. A. M. Kelley PublishersGoogle Scholar
  76. Kostka G, Anzinger N (2015) Large infrastructure projects in Germany—between ambition and realities. Hertie School of Governance, pp 1–3Google Scholar
  77. Kumar R, Gardoni P, SanchezSilva M (2009) Effect of cumulative seismic damage and corrosion on the lifecycle cost of reinforced concrete bridges. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 38:887–905CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Kvale S (1995) The social construction of validity. Qual Inq 1:19–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Lai J, Zhang L, Duffield CF, Aye L (2013) Engineering reliability analysis in risk management framework: development and application in infrastructure project. Int J Appl Math 43:242–249Google Scholar
  80. Lee J-Y, Yoo M, Cha K et al (2009) Life cycle cost analysis to examine the economical feasibility of hydrogen as an alternative fuel. Int J Hydrog Energy 34:4243–4255CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Levander E, Schade J, Stehn L (2009) Life cycle cost calculation models for buildings & addressing uncertainties about timber housing by whole life costingGoogle Scholar
  82. Li Q (2015) New generation traction power supply system and its key technologies for electrified railways. J Mod Transp 1–11. doi:  10.1007/s40534-015-0067-1
  83. Li Z, Madanu S (2009) Highway project level life-cycle benefit/cost analysis under certainty, risk, and uncertainty: methodology with case study. J Transp Eng 135:516–526CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Lindholm A, Suomala P (2007) Learning by costing: sharpening cost image through life cycle costing? Int J Product Perform Manag 56:651–672CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Liu G (2014) Development of a general sustainability indicator for renewable energy systems: a review. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 31:611–621CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Mata É, Sasic Kalagasidis A, Johnsson F (2014) Cost-effective retrofitting of Swedish residential buildings: effects of energy price developments and discount rates. Energy Effic 8:223–327CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Mavrotas G, Florios K, Vlachou D (2010) Energy planning of a hospital using mathematical programming and Monte Carlo simulation for dealing with uncertainty in the economic parameters. Energy Convers Manag 51:722–731CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Mayring P (2015) Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Beltz PädagogikGoogle Scholar
  89. McDonald M, Madanat S (2012) Life-cycle cost minimization and sensitivity analysis for mechanistic-empirical pavement design. J Transp Eng 138:706–713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Menikpura SNM, Gheewala S, Bonnet S (2012) Sustainability assessment of municipal solid waste management in Sri Lanka: problems and prospects. J Mater Cycles Waste Manage 14:181–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Mishalani RG, Gong L (2009a) Optimal Sampling of Infrastructure condition: motivation, formulation, and evaluation. J Infrastruct Syst 15:313–320CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Mishalani RG, Gong L (2009b) Optimal infrastructure condition sampling over space and time for maintenance decision-making under uncertainty. Transp Res B Methodol 43:311–324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Mitropoulou CC, Lagaros ND, Papadrakakis M (2011) Life-cycle cost assessment of optimally designed reinforced concrete buildings under seismic actions. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 96:1311–1331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. Moher D, Klassen TP, Schulz KF et al (2000) What contributions do languages other than English make on the results of meta-analyses? J Clin Epidemiol 53:964–972CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Moore T, Morrissey J (2014) Lifecycle costing sensitivities for zero energy housing in Melbourne, Australia. Energy Build 79:1–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Morcous G, Lounis Z (2005) Maintenance optimization of infrastructure networks using genetic algorithms. Autom Constr 14:129–142CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Morgan MG, Henrion M (1990) Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
  98. Mullard JA, Stewart MG (2012) Life-cycle cost assessment of maintenance strategies for RC structures in chloride environments. J Bridge Eng 17:353–362CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. US National Research Council (2000) Risk analysis and uncertainty in flood damage reduction studies. Committee on Risk-Based Analysis for Flood Damage ReductionGoogle Scholar
  100. Natke HG, Ben-Haim Y (1997) Uncertainty—a discussion from various points of view. Math Res 99:267–276Google Scholar
  101. Oberkampf WL, Helton JC, Sentz K (2001) Mathematical representation of uncertainty. In: AIAA non-deterministic approaches forum. pp 16–19Google Scholar
  102. Park CS, Sharp-Bette GP (1990) Advanced engineering economics. WileyGoogle Scholar
  103. Patra AP, Söderholm P, Kumar U (2009) Uncertainty estimation in railway track life-cycle cost: a case study from Swedish National Rail Administration. Proc Inst Mech Eng F J Rail Rapid Transit 223:285–293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. Pesonen H-L, Horn S (2013) Evaluating the Sustainability SWOT as a streamlined tool for life cycle sustainability assessment. Int J Life Cycle Assess 18:1780–1792CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Rathore C, Roy R (2014) A novel modified GBMO algorithm based static transmission network expansion planning. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 62:519–531CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  106. Reich MC (2005) Economic assessment of municipal waste management systems—case studies using a combination of life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). J Clean Prod 13:253–263CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Robert F, Gosselin L (2014) New methodology to design ground coupled heat pump systems based on total cost minimization. Appl Therm Eng 62:481–491CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  108. Rodríguez Rivero EJ, Emblemsvåg J (2007) Activity-based life-cycle costing in long-range planning. Rev Account Finance 6:370–390CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  109. Roy R (2003) Cost engineering: why, what and how? Cranfield University, ISBN 1-861940-96-3Google Scholar
  110. Russell AD (1981) Economic risks in energy conservation strategies. Build Environ 16:109–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  111. Saassouh B, Lounis Z (2012) Probabilistic modeling of chloride-induced corrosion in concrete structures using first- and second-order reliability methods. Cem Concr Compos 34:1082–1093CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. Sanyé-Mengual E, Oliver-Solà J, Montero J, Rieradevall J (2015) An environmental and economic life cycle assessment of rooftop greenhouse (RTG) implementation in Barcelona, Spain. Assessing new forms of urban agriculture from the greenhouse structure to the final product level. Int J Life Cycle Assess 20:350–366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. Schmidt W-P (2003) Life cycle costing as part of design for environment environmental business cases. Int J Life Cycle Assess 8:167–174CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. Scope C, Ilg P, Muench S, Guenther E (2016) Uncertainty in life cycle costing for long-range infrastructure. Part II: guidance and suitability of applied methods to address uncertainty. Int J Life Cycle Assess. doi: 10.1007/s11367-016-1086-9
  115. Settanni E, Emblemsvåg J (2010) Applying a non-deterministic conceptual life cycle costing model to manufacturing processes. J Model Manag 5:220–262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Seuring S, Müller M (2008) From a literature review to a conceptual framework for sustainable supply chain management. J Clean Prod 16:1699–1710CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  117. Shin H, Singh MP (2014) Minimum failure cost-based energy dissipation system designs for buildings in three seismic regions—part I: elements of failure cost analysis. Eng Struct 74:266–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  118. Simões C, Costa Pinto L, Simoes R, Bernardo CA (2013) Integrating environmental and economic life cycle analysis in product development: a material selection case study. Int J Life Cycle Assess 18:1734–1746CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  119. Sterner E (2000) Life-cycle costing and its use in the Swedish building sector. Build Res Inf 28:387–393CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  120. Stützle T, Hoos HH (2000) MAX–MIN ant system. Futur Gener Comput Syst 16:889–914CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Sullivan WG, Claycombe WW (1977) Fundamentals of forecasting. Prentice HallGoogle Scholar
  122. Swarr TE, Hunkeler D, Klöpffer W et al (2011) Environmental life-cycle costing: a code of practice. Int J Life Cycle Assess 16:389–391CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  123. Tatikonda MV, Rosenthal SR (2000) Technology novelty, project complexity, and product development project execution success: a deeper look at task uncertainty in product innovation. IEEE Trans Eng Manag 47:74–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. Terzi S, Serin S (2014) Planning maintenance works on pavements through ant colony optimization. Neural Comput Appl 25:143–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  125. Tighe S (2001) Guidelines for probabilistic pavement life cycle cost analysis. Transp Res Rec 1769:28–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. Töpfer A (2012) Wie kann ich mein wissenschaftliches Arbeiten erfolgreich organisieren? In: Erfolgreich Forschen. Springer, pp 367–402Google Scholar
  127. Tranfield D, Denyer D, Smart P (2003) Towards a methodology for developing evidence-informed management knowledge by means of systematic review. Br J Manag 14:207–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  128. Troldborg M, Heslop S, Hough RL (2014) Assessing the sustainability of renewable energy technologies using multi-criteria analysis: suitability of approach for national-scale assessments and associated uncertainties. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 39:1173–1184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  129. US Environmental Protection Agency (1997) Exposure factors handbook. Unites States Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  130. Val DV (2007) Factors affecting life-cycle cost analysis of RC structures in chloride contaminated environments. J Infrastruct Syst 13:135–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  131. van Noortwijk JM, Klatter HE (2004) The use of lifetime distributions in bridge maintenance and replacement modelling. Adv Probabilistic Mech Struct Reliab 82:1091–1099Google Scholar
  132. von Schomberg R (1993) Controversies and political decision making. In: Science, politics and morality. Springer, pp 7–26Google Scholar
  133. Walker WE, Harremoës P, Rotmans J et al (2003) Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integr Assess 4:5–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  134. Walls J, Smith M (1998) Life-cycle cost analysis in pavement design—interim technical bulletinGoogle Scholar
  135. Wen YK, Kang YJ (2001) Minimum building life-cycle cost design criteria. II: applications. J Struct Eng 127:338–346CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  136. Willuweit L, O’Sullivan JJ (2013) A decision support tool for sustainable planning of urban water systems: presenting the dynamic urban water simulation model. Water Res 47:7206–7220CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  137. Xu Y, Elgh F, Erkoyuncu JA et al (2012a) Cost engineering for manufacturing: current and future research. Int J Comput Integr Manuf 25:300–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  138. Xu Y, Xie N, Li W et al (2012b) Phase behaviors and ordering dynamics of diblock copolymer self-assembly directed by lateral hexagonal confinement. J Chem Phys 137:194905CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  139. Yoner N (2001) Major weapon systems acquisition and life cycle cost estimation: a case study. M.S. thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CAGoogle Scholar
  140. Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inf Control 8:338–353CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  141. Zadeh LA (1973) Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 28–44Google Scholar
  142. Zakeri B, Syri S (2015) Electrical energy storage systems: a comparative life cycle cost analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 42:569–596CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  143. Zamagni A (2012) Life cycle sustainability assessment. Int J Life Cycle Assess 17:373–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Patrick Ilg
    • 1
  • Christoph Scope
    • 1
  • Stefan Muench
    • 1
  • Edeltraud Guenther
    • 1
  1. 1.Faculty of Economics, Chair of Environmental Management and AccountingTechnische Universität DresdenDresdenGermany

Personalised recommendations