A dualistic water cycle system dynamic model for sustainable water resource management through progressive operational scenario analysis

  • Jiayu Peng
  • Shaoyong Lu
  • Yimei Cao
  • Xing Wang
  • Xiaozhen Hu
  • Minghao Wang
  • Binghui ZhengEmail author
Research Article


A reliable system simulation of the reciprocal mechanism between water resource utilization and dualistic water cycle is essential to the basin water resource sustainability management. In this study, a system dynamic model was built to simulate the water cycle change and lake water environmental pressure under the influence of water resources utilization, and the procedure of a progressive operational scenario analysis of how to relieve water environment pressure was illustrated. Dianchi Lake, which is the sixth largest and the most severely polluted freshwater lake in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. The change of runoff components and pollution load of total nitrogen from 2000 to 2030 were discussed. Also, the sustainable water resource management was ultimately realized in the planning period through three progressive levels of water resource regulation scenarios. Compared with business-as-usual scenario, the TN pollution load into lake and total water demand decrease by 27.1 and 27.3%, and the domestic water use, industry water use, tertiary industry water use, and irrigation decrease 9.0, 16.8, 29.5, and 30% in the scenario 3.


Dualistic water cycle system System dynamic model Sustainable water resource management Progressive operational scenario analysis Dianchi Lake Basin 


Funding information

This work was supported by the Integrated Technology of Water Pollution Control in Dianchi Basin and Application of Lakes in Yunnan Guizhou Plateau (2018ZX07604004).

Supplementary material

11356_2019_4565_MOESM1_ESM.docx (1.2 mb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 1174 kb)


  1. Bohn BA, Kershner JL (2002) Establishing aquatic restoration priorities using a watershed approach. J Environ Manag 64(4):355–363CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. He J, Xu X, Yang Y, Wu X, Li W, Li S, Hongbin Z (2015) Problems and effects of comprehensive management of water environment in Lake Dianchi. J Lake Sci 27(2):195–199 (in chinese)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Huang C, Wang X, Yang H, Li Y, Wang Y, Chen X, Xu L (2014) Satellite data regarding the eutrophication response to human activities in the plateau lake Dianchi in China from 1974 to 2009. Sci Total Environ 485:1–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Jiang Y, Chen Y, Younos T, Huang H, He J (2010) Urban water resources quota management: the core strategy for water demand management in China. Ambio 39(7):467–475CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Kotir JH, Smith C, Brown G, Marshall N, Johnstone R (2016) A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana. Sci Total Environ 573:444–457CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Liu H, Benoit G, Liu T, Liu Y, Guo H (2015) An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. J Environ Manag 155:11–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Luo Y, Yang K, Yu ZY, Chen JY, Xu YF, Zhou XL, Yang Y (2017) Dynamic monitoring and prediction of Dianchi Lake cyanobacteria outbreaks in the context of rapid urbanization. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(6):5335–5348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Ma G, Wang S (2015) Temporal and spatial distribution changing characteristics of exogenous pollution load into Dianchi Lake, southwest of China. Environ Earth Sci 74(5):3781–3793CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Maillard P, Pinheiro Santos NA (2008) A spatial-statistical approach for modeling the effect of non-point source pollution on different water quality parameters in the Velhas river watershed Brazil. J Environ Manag 86(1):158–170CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Mavrommati G, Bithas K, Panayiotidis P (2013) Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: a system dynamics analysis. Water Res 47(20):7235–7250CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Qin DY, Lu CY, Liu JH, Wang H, Wang JH, Li HH, Chu JY, Chen GF (2014) Theoretical framework of dualistic nature-social water cycle. Chin Sci Bull 59(8):810–820CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Qiu M, Wang H (2015) Design scheme of wastewater interception project around Dianchi Lake. China Water Wastewater 31(12):56–59 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  13. Saraswat C, Kumar P, Mishra BK (2016) Assessment of stormwater runoff management practices and governance under climate change and urbanization: an analysis of Bangkok, Hanoi and Tokyo. Environ Sci Pol 64:101–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Susnik J, Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia LS, Savic DA, Kapelan Z (2012) Integrated system dynamics modelling for water scarcity assessment: case study of the Kairouan region. Sci Total Environ 440:290–306CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Wang H, Jia YW, Yang GY, Zhou ZH, Qiu YQ, Niu CW, Peng H (2013) Integrated simulation of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin. Chin Sci Bull 58(27):3297–3311CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Wang H, Jia YW (2016) Theory and study methodology of dualistic water cycle in river basins under changing conditions. J Hydraul Eng 47:1219–1226Google Scholar
  17. Wang HH, Zhang JR, Zeng WH (2018) Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models. Sci Total Environ 618:1160–1172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Wei SK, Yang H, Song JX, Abbaspour KC, Xu ZX (2012) System dynamics simulation model for assessing socio-economic impacts of different levels of environmental flow allocation in the Weihe River Basin, China. Eur J Oper Res 221(1):248–262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Xie B, Yun Z, Shixiang G et al (2010) Climate change in Dianchi Basin and its relation with water resources utilization. China Rural Water Hydropower 7:9–13.(in Chinese)Google Scholar
  20. Xu X, Wu X, He J, Wang L, Zhang Y, Yang Y, Chen Y, Ye H (2016) Research on the pollution characteristics of Dianchi watershed (1988–2014)and identification of countermeasures. J Lake Sci 28(3):476–484 (in chinese)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Yimei C (2013) Evaluation of carrying capacity and potential of water resources development in Dianchi Basin. Water Resour Power 31(11):32–34Google Scholar
  22. Zhi G, Zhang L, Yang Y, He L, Liu S, Zhang N (2013) Comprehensive balance management of water resources in the Dianchi Lake Basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin 22(9):1227–1233 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  23. Zhu J, Wang X, Zhang LX, Cheng HG, Yang ZF (2015) System dynamics modeling of the influence of the TN/TP concentrations in socioeconomic water on NDVI in shallow lakes. Ecol Eng 76:27–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Zilov EA (2013) Water resources and the sustainable development of humankind: international cooperation in the rational use of freshwater-lake resources: conclusions from materials of foreign studies. Water Res 40(1):84–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Zhang S, Weiwei F, Yi Y et al (2017) Evaluation method for regional water cycle health based on nature-society water cycle theory. J Hydrol 551:352–364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Zheng B, Jiayu P, Xiaozhen H et al (2018) The cause for abnormal water quality deterioration of Waihai of Dianchi Lake in 2017 and the countermeasures. J Environ Eng Technol 8(05):465–472 (in chinese)Google Scholar
  27. Zhu Z, Dou J (2018) Current status of reclaimed water in China: an overview. J Water Reuse Desalination 8(3):293–307CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.College of Water ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological RestorationChinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China
  3. 3.Kunming Branch BureauYunnan Province Hydrology and Water Resources BureauKunmingPeople’s Republic of China
  4. 4.College of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijingPeople’s Republic of China

Personalised recommendations