Advertisement

Environmental Science and Pollution Research

, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 694–705 | Cite as

Socio-geographic disparity in cardiorespiratory mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature in the United States

  • Yunquan ZhangEmail author
  • Qianqian Xiang
  • Yong Yu
  • Zhiying Zhan
  • Kejia Hu
  • Zan DingEmail author
Research Article
  • 69 Downloads

Abstract

Compared with relative risk, attributable fraction (AF) is more informative when assessing the mortality burden due to some environmental exposures (e.g., ambient temperature). Up to date, however, available AF-based evidence linking temperature with mortality has been very sparse regionally and nationally, even for the leading mortality types such as cardiorespiratory deaths. This study aimed to quantify national and regional burden of cardiorespiratory mortality (CRM) attributable to ambient temperature in the USA, and to explore potential socioeconomic and demographic sources of spatial heterogeneity between communities. Daily CRM and weather data during 1987–2000 for 106 urban communities across the mainland of USA were acquired from the publicly available National Morbidity, Mortality and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS). We did the data analysis using a three-stage analytic approach. We first applied quasi-Poisson regression incorporated with distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate community-specific temperature-CRM associations, then pooled these associations at the regional and national level through a multivariate meta-analysis, and finally estimated the temperature-AF of CRM and performed subgroup analyses stratified by community-level characteristics. Both low and high temperatures increased short-term CRM risk, while temperature-CRM associations varied by regions. Nationally, the fraction of cardiorespiratory deaths caused by the total non-optimum, low, and high temperatures was 7.58% (95% empirical confidence interval, 6.68–8.31%), 7.15% (6.31–7.85%), and 0.43% (0.37–0.46%), respectively. Greater temperature-AF was identified in two northern regions (i.e., Industrial Midwest and North East) and communities with lower temperature and longitude, higher latitude, and moderate humidity. Additionally, higher vulnerability appeared in locations with higher urbanization level, more aging population, less White race, and lower socioeconomic status. Ambient temperature may be responsible for a large fraction of cardiorespiratory deaths. Also, temperature-AF of CRM varied considerably by geographical and climatological factors, as well as community-level disparity in socioeconomic status.

Keywords

Climate change Temperature Cardiorespiratory mortality Attributable fraction United States 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We greatly thank the developers of the National Mortality Morbidity Air Pollution Studies (NMMAPS), and thank Dr. Roger D. Peng and his colleagues for making the NMMAPS database publicly available. Additionally, we thank the anonymous reviewers very much, whose insightful comments and suggestions contributed a lot to improving the quality of our manuscript.

Author contributions

Yunquan Zhang conceived and designed the experiments; Zan Ding and Zhiying Zhan collected the data; Yunquan Zhang performed the data analysis; Yunquan Zhang, Qianqian Xiang, and Yong Yu drafted the manuscript. Zan Ding and Kejia Hu helped revise the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare they have no competing financial interests.

Supplementary material

11356_2018_3653_MOESM1_ESM.doc (1.7 mb)
ESM 1 (DOC 1660 kb)

References

  1. Amegah AK, Rezza G, Jaakkola JJ (2016) Temperature-related morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of the empirical evidence. Environ Int 91:133–149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anderson BG, Bell ML (2009) Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 20:205–213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baccini M, Kosatsky T, Analitis A, Anderson HR, D’Ovidio M, Menne B, Michelozzi P, Biggeri A, Group PC (2011) Impact of heat on mortality in 15 European cities: attributable deaths under different weather scenarios. J Epidemiol Community Health 65:64–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Ballester J, Robine JM, Herrmann FR, Rodo X (2011) Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe. Nat Commun 2:358CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Basu R (2009) High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environ Health 8:40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Benmarhnia T, Deguen S, Kaufman JS, Smargiassi A (2015) Review article: vulnerability to heat-related mortality: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis. Epidemiology 26:781–793CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bennett JE, Blangiardo M, Fecht D, Elliott P, Ezzati M (2014) Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales. Nat Clim Chang 4:269–273CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Carson C, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Wilkinson P (2006) Declining vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in London over the 20th century. Am J Epidemiol 164:77–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chen R, Peng RD, Meng X, Zhou Z, Chen B, Kan H (2013) Seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES). Sci Total Environ 450-451:259–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL (2016) Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863–1869CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Chung JY, Honda Y, Hong YC, Pan XC, Guo YL, Kim H (2009) Ambient temperature and mortality: an international study in four capital cities of East Asia. Sci Total Environ 408:390–396CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Collaborators GBDRF (2016) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 388:1659–1724CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, Zeger SL, Strug L, Patz JA (2002) Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol 155:80–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Feigin VL, Roth GA, Naghavi M, Parmar P, Krishnamurthi R, Chugh S, Mensah GA, Bo N, Shiue I, Ng M (2016) Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet Neurol 15:913–924CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Forouzanfar MH et al (2015) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 386:2287–2323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Gabriel KM, Endlicher WR (2011) Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg, Germany. Environ Pollut 159:2044–2050CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Gasparrini A (2011) Distributed lag linear and non-linear models in R: the package dlnm. J Stat Softw 43:1–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B (2010) Time series analysis on the health effects of temperature: advancements and limitations. Environ Res 110:633–638CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B (2013) Reducing and meta-analysing estimates from distributed lag non-linear models. BMC Med Res Methodol 13:1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gasparrini A, Leone M (2014) Attributable risk from distributed lag models. BMC Med Res Methodol 14:55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG (2010) Distributed lag non-linear models. Stat Med 29:2224–2234CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG (2012a) Multivariate meta-analysis for non-linear and other multi-parameter associations. Stat Med 31:3821–3839CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P (2012b) The effect of high temperatures on cause-specific mortality in England and Wales. Occup Environ Med 69:56–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Tong S, Rocklöv J, Forsberg B, Leone M, de Sario M, Bell ML, Guo YLL, Wu CF, Kan H, Yi SM, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong B (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386:369–375CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Gasparrini A et al (2017) Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. Lancet Planet Health 1:e360–e367Google Scholar
  26. Goggins WB, Chan EY, Ng E, Ren C, Chen L (2012) Effect modification of the association between short-term meteorological factors and mortality by urban heat islands in Hong Kong. PLoS One 7:e38551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Gronlund CJ (2014) Racial and socioeconomic disparities in heat-related health effects and their mechanisms: a review. Curr Epidemiol Rep 1:165–173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Guo Y (2017) Hourly associations between heat and ambulance calls. Environ Pollut 220:1424–1428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S (2011) The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect 119:1719–1725CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Li S, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Leone M, Pan X, Tong S, Tian L, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YLL, Wu CF, Punnasiri K, Yi SM, Michelozzi P, Saldiva PHN, Williams G (2014) Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation. Epidemiology 25:781–789CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Guo Y, Li S, de Liu L, Chen D, Williams G, Tong S (2016) Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities. Environ Pollut 208:66–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MSZS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YLL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Scortichini M, Michelozzi P, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Garcia SDO, Seposo X, Overcenco A, Zeka A, Goodman P, Dang TN, Dung DV, Mayvaneh F, Saldiva PHN, Williams G, Tong S (2017) Heat wave and mortality: a multicountry, multicommunity study. Environ Health Perspect 125:087006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Hajat S, Kosatky T (2010) Heat-related mortality: a review and exploration of heterogeneity. J Epidemiol Community Health 64:753–760CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Hu K, Guo Y, Yang X, Zhong J, Fei F, Chen F, Zhao Q, Zhang Y, Chen G, Chen Q, Ye T, Li S, Qi J (2018) Temperature variability and mortality in rural and urban areas in Zhejiang Province, China: an application of a spatiotemporal index. Sci Total Environ 647:1044–1051CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Huang Z, Lin H, Liu Y, Zhou M, Liu T, Xiao J, Zeng W, Li X, Zhang Y, Ebi KL, Tong S, Ma W, Wang L (2015) Individual-level and community-level effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality relationship in 66 Chinese communities. BMJ Open 5:e009172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Lee JY, Kim H (2016) Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes. Environ Int 94:489–494CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lee WH, Lim YH, Dang TN, Seposo X, Honda Y, Guo YL, Jang HM, Kim H (2017) An investigation on attributes of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range on mortality in five East-Asian countries. Sci Rep 7:10207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Li T, Horton RM, Bader DA, Zhou M, Liang X, Ban J, Sun Q, Kinney PL (2016) Aging will amplify the heat-related mortality risk under a changing climate: projection for the elderly in Beijing, China. Sci Rep 6:28161CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Li G, Guo Q, Liu Y, Li Y, Pan X (2018a) Projected temperature-related years of life lost from stroke due to global warming in a temperate climate city, Asia: disease burden caused by future climate change. Stroke 49:828–834CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Li G, Li Y, Tian L, Guo Q, Pan X (2018b) Future temperature-related years of life lost projections for cardiovascular disease in Tianjin, China. Sci Total Environ 630:943–950CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K (2012) A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010 a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 380:2224–2260CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Lim YH, Reid CE, Mann JK, Jerrett M, Kim H (2015) Diurnal temperature range and short-term mortality in large US communities. Int J Biometeorol 59:1311–1319CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Lin H, Liu T, Xiao J, Zeng W, Li X, Guo L, Zhang Y, Xu Y, Tao J, Xian H, Syberg KM, Qian ZM, Ma W (2016) Mortality burden of ambient fine particulate air pollution in six Chinese cities: results from the Pearl River Delta study. Environ Int 96:91–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Ma W, Chen R, Kan H (2014) Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: how heat and cold affect mortality in China. Environ Res 134:127–133CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Ma W, Wang L, Lin H, Liu T, Zhang Y, Rutherford S, Luo Y, Zeng W, Zhang Y, Wang X, Gu X, Chu C, Xiao J, Zhou M (2015a) The temperature-mortality relationship in China: an analysis from 66 Chinese communities. Environ Res 137:72–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Ma W, Zeng W, Zhou M, Wang L, Rutherford S, Lin H, Liu T, Zhang Y, Xiao J, Zhang Y, Wang X, Gu X, Chu C (2015b) The short-term effect of heat waves on mortality and its modifiers in China: an analysis from 66 communities. Environ Int 75:103–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Madrigano J, Jack D, Anderson GB, Bell ML, Kinney PL (2015) Temperature, ozone, and mortality in urban and non-urban counties in the northeastern United States. Environ Health 14:3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Medina-Ramon M, Schwartz J (2007) Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med 64:827–833CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Moghadamnia MT, Ardalan A, Mesdaghinia A, Keshtkar A, Naddafi K, Yekaninejad MS (2017) Ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PeerJ 5:e3574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Onozuka D, Hagihara A (2017) Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest risk attributable to temperature in Japan. Sci Rep 7:39538CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Peng RD, Dominici F, Pastor-Barriuso R, Zeger SL, Samet JM (2005) Seasonal analyses of air pollution and mortality in 100 US cities. Am J Epidemiol 161:585–594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Phung D, Guo Y, Nguyen HT, Rutherford S, Baum S, Chu C (2016) High temperature and risk of hospitalizations, and effect modifying potential of socio-economic conditions: a multi-province study in the tropical Mekong Delta Region. Environ Int 92-93:77–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Romero-Lankao P, Qin H, Dickinson K (2012) Urban vulnerability to temperature-related hazards: a meta-analysis and meta-knowledge approach. Glob Environ Change 22:670–683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Ryti NR, Guo Y, Jaakkola JJ (2016) Global association of cold spells and adverse health effects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:12–22Google Scholar
  55. Samet JM, Zeger SL, Dominici F, Curriero FC, Coursac I, Dockery DW, Schwartz J, Zanobetti A (2000) The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study. Part II: morbidity and mortality from air pollution in the United States. Res Rep Health Eff Inst 94:5–70Google Scholar
  56. Schwartz JD, Lee M, Kinney PL, Yang S, Mills D, Sarofim MC, Jones R, Streeter R, Juliana AS, Peers J (2015) Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach. Environ Health 14:85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Scovronick N, Sera F, Acquaotta F, Garzena D, Fratianni S, Wright CY, Gasparrini A (2018) The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa: a time-series analysis. Environ Res 161:229–235CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Sheridan SC, Dolney TJ (2003) Heat, mortality, and level of urbanization: measuring vulnerability across Ohio, USA. Clim Res 24:255–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Song X, Wang S, Hu Y, Yue M, Zhang T, Liu Y, Tian J, Shang K (2017) Impact of ambient temperature on morbidity and mortality: an overview of reviews. Sci Total Environ 586:241–254CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Steenland K, Armstrong B (2006) An overview of methods for calculating the burden of disease due to specific risk factors. Epidemiology 17:512–519CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Taylor EV, Vaidyanathan A, Flanders WD, Murphy M, Spencer M, Noe RS (2018) Differences in heat-related mortality by citizenship status: United States, 2005–2014. Am J Public Health 108:S131–S136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Tobias A, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A (2017) Brief report: investigating uncertainty in the minimum mortality temperature: methods and application to 52 Spanish cities. Epidemiology 28:72–76CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B, McMichael AJ (2014) Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia. Environ Health Perspect 122:1285–1292CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM (2016) Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 388:1459–1544CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Weinberger KR, Haykin L, Eliot MN, Schwartz JD, Gasparrini A, Wellenius GA (2017) Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios. Environ Int 107:196–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Xiao J, Peng J, Zhang Y, Liu T, Rutherford S, Lin H, Qian Z, Huang C, Luo Y, Zeng W, Chu C, Ma W (2015) How much does latitude modify temperature-mortality relationship in 13 eastern US cities? Int J Biometeorol 59:365–372CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Yang J, Yin P, Zhou M, Ou CQ, Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Liu Y, Yue Y, Gu S, Sang S, Luan G, Sun Q, Liu Q (2015) Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China. Heart 101:1966–1972CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Yang J, Yin P, Zhou M, Ou CQ, Li M, Li J, Liu X, Gao J, Liu Y, Qin R, Xu L, Huang C, Liu Q (2016) The burden of stroke mortality attributable to cold and hot ambient temperatures: epidemiological evidence from China. Environ Int 92-93:232–238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Yu W, Mengersen K, Wang X, Ye X, Guo Y, Pan X, Tong S (2012) Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence. Int J Biometeorol 56:569–581CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Zanobetti A, O'Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Schwartz JD (2013) Susceptibility to mortality in weather extremes: effect modification by personal and small-area characteristics. Epidemiology 24:809–819CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Zeng J, Zhang X, Yang J, Bao J, Xiang H, Dear K, Liu Q, Lin S, Lawrence WR, Lin A, Huang C (2017) Humidity may modify the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular mortality in Zhejiang Province, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 14:1383Google Scholar
  72. Zhang Y, Yu C, Bao J, Li X (2017) Impact of temperature on mortality in Hubei, China: a multi-county time series analysis. Sci Rep 7:45093CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Zhang Y, Peng M, Wang L, Yu C (2018a) Association of diurnal temperature range with daily mortality in England and Wales: a nationwide time-series study. Sci Total Environ 619-620:291–300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Zhang Y, Yu C, Peng M, Zhang L (2018b) The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost: a multi-community analysis in Hubei, China. Sci Total Environ 621:1491–1498CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health SciencesWuhan UniversityWuhanChina
  2. 2.Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionWuhanChina
  3. 3.Hubei Provincial Institute for Food Supvision and TestWuhanChina
  4. 4.School of Public Health and ManagementHubei University of MedicineShiyanChina
  5. 5.Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Tropical MedicineSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhouChina
  6. 6.Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean CollegeZhejiang UniversityZhoushanChina
  7. 7.Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneAustralia
  8. 8.The Institute of Metabolic DiseasesBaoan Central Hospital of ShenzhenShenzhenChina

Personalised recommendations