Environmental Science and Pollution Research

, Volume 24, Issue 25, pp 20261–20272 | Cite as

Time series analysis of ambient air pollution effects on daily mortality

  • Yinsheng Guo
  • Yue Ma
  • Yanwei Zhang
  • Suli Huang
  • Yongsheng Wu
  • Shuyuan Yu
  • Fei ZouEmail author
  • Jinquan ChengEmail author
Research Article


Although the growths of ambient pollutants have been attracting public concern, the characteristic of the associations between air pollutants and mortality remains elusive. Time series analysis with a generalized additive model was performed to estimate the associations between ambient air pollutants and mortality outcomes in Shenzhen City for the period of 2012–2014. The results showed that nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-induced excess risks (ER) of total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality were significantly increased (6.05% (95% CI 3.38%, 8.78%); 6.88% (95% CI 2.98%, 10.93%), respectively) in interquartile range (IQR) increase analysis. Also, these associations were strengthened after adjusting for other pollutants. Moreover, similar associations were estimated for sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10), and total non-accidental mortality. There were significant higher ERs of associations between PM10 and mortality for men than women; while there were significant higher ERs of associations between PM10/NO2 and mortality for elders (65 or elder) than youngers (64 or younger). Season analyses showed that associations between NO2 and total non-accidental mortality were more pronounced in hot seasons than in warm seasons. Taken together, NO2 was positively associated with total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen even when the concentrations were below the ambient air quality standard. Policy measures should aim at reducing residents’ exposure to anthropogenic NO2 emissions.


Air pollutants Cardiovascular mortality Non-accidental mortality Respiratory mortality Time series analysis 



Authors thank the Shenzhen Environmental Monitoring Center and Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality for supplying the air monitoring data. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 81573242) and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (Grant No. 2016M602537).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors’ declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

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Supplementary Table 3 (DOCX 15 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yinsheng Guo
    • 1
    • 2
  • Yue Ma
    • 1
  • Yanwei Zhang
    • 1
  • Suli Huang
    • 1
  • Yongsheng Wu
    • 1
  • Shuyuan Yu
    • 1
  • Fei Zou
    • 2
    Email author
  • Jinquan Cheng
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and PreventionShenzhenChina
  2. 2.Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Tropical MedicineSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhouChina

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