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Environmental Science and Pollution Research

, Volume 23, Issue 10, pp 9934–9943 | Cite as

Multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors in Ghana

  • Samuel Asumadu-SarkodieEmail author
  • Phebe Asantewaa Owusu
Research Article

Abstract

The fundamental goal of the Government of Ghana’s development agenda as enshrined in the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy to grow the economy to a middle income status of US$1000 per capita by the end of 2015 could be met by increasing the labour force, increasing energy supplies and expanding the energy infrastructure in order to achieve the sustainable development targets. In this study, a multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors namely carbon dioxide, total primary energy consumption, population and GDP was investigated in Ghana using vector error correction model with data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our research results show an existence of long-run causality running from population, GDP and total primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. However, there is evidence of short-run causality running from population to carbon dioxide emissions. There was a bi-directional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy consumption and vice versa. In other words, decreasing the primary energy consumption in Ghana will directly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, a bi-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption and vice versa exists in the multivariate model. It is plausible that access to energy has a relationship with increasing economic growth and productivity in Ghana.

Keywords

Multivariate co-integration Kaya factors Carbon dioxide emission Causality Ghana 

Abbreviations

TCE

Total carbon dioxide emissions

GDP

Gross domestic product

TPEC

Total primary energy consumption

VEC

Vector error correction

VECM

Vector error correction model

VAR

Vector autoregression

OLS

Ordinary least squares

IMF

International monetary fund

LR

Sequential likelihood ratio

AIC

Akaike information criterion

SC

Schwarz information criterion

HQ

Hannan-Quinn information criteria

FPE

Final prediction error

MMT

Million metric tons

QBtu

Quadrillion British thermal units

P

Population

GNI

Gross national income

HDI

Human development index

SDG

Sustainable development goal

MDGs

Millennium development goals

χ2

Chi square

df

Difference

Prob

Probability

_ce

Co-integrated equation

Coef.

Coefficient

Std. Err.

Standard error

Greek letter

π

Rank

JEL classifications

Q43 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the editor, Dr. Philippe Garrigues, and the three anonymous reviewers for their relentless effort and useful comments. Any errors or inconsistencies in the paper are the sole responsibility of the authors.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Samuel Asumadu-Sarkodie
    • 1
    Email author
  • Phebe Asantewaa Owusu
    • 1
  1. 1.Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems, Middle East Technical University, Northern Cyprus CampusGuzelyurtTurkey

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