Response and Recovery: Does the Delay Between a Crisis and an IMF Loan Affect the Length of Recovery?
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The speed at which a country and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) respond to a banking or currency crisis has no statistical effect on the length of an economic downturn associated with the crisis. The emphasis on the speed of response fills a gap in the literature that focuses on the effectiveness of IMF loans in general (Papi et al., IMF Economic Review, 2015) and reasons for variations in response times (McDowell, The Review of International Organizations, 2017).
To reach this conclusion, the dates of all IMF “Stand by Arrangement” and “Extended Fund Facility” loans announced from 1993 to 2016 were identified using the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements (MONA) database (https://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/mona/index.aspx). The start date of a currency crisis was recorded as the month in which a change in the exchange market pressure index (EMP) was at least one standard deviation above the mean change for that country. The EMP index follows Mody and Saravia (International...
The authors would like to thank Kyle Courtney for his assistance on this project, as well as the participants and reviewer at the Southen Economic Association Annual Meeting.