Productivity in the Global Value Chain World
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This article is adapted from the 2019: William S. Vickrey Distinguished Address I was invited to deliver at the International Atlantic Economic Conference in Miami, October 19, 2019. It explores three significant and interconnected global factors that are projected to shape the future of labor and productivity. Among these three identified factors are the emergence of enhanced labor hours through the development of artificial intelligence, the restructuring of population demographics and labor forces, and the integration of global value chains. The individual and interconnected effects of these three factors are illustrated through the use of artificially intelligent “autocoders” in the Office of Safety, Health, and Working Conditions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, current and projected demographic shifts in the Japanese labor force, and the impact of global value chain production in the Chinese automobile industry. Although the long-run impact of these global trends is unknown, it is evident that as a general rule and in the aggregate, national economies will find opportunities to increase productivity as they embrace enhanced labor in the workplace and integrate global networks of value creation that span borders and industries.
KeywordsArtificial intelligence Enhanced labor Global value chains Globalization Productivity Labor Demographics
JELF6 J1 J2 O3 O4
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