Ecological Research

, Volume 24, Issue 5, pp 965–975 | Cite as

Predicting future invasion of an invasive alien tree in a Japanese oceanic island by process-based statistical models using recent distribution maps

  • Keita Fukasawa
  • Fumito Koike
  • Nobuyuki Tanaka
  • Kayo Otsu
Special Feature Ecological risk management


Modelling and predicting the potential habitat and future range expansion of invasive species can help managers to mitigate the impact of such species. Because habitat suitability and the colonization process are key determinants of range expansion, inferences drawn from invasion patterns should be based on both attributes. To predict the potential habitat and expansion rate of the invasive tree Bischofia javanica on Hahajima Island, we used simultaneous models of habitat and dispersal to estimate the effect of environment and dispersal from the source population on the current distribution. We compared the fit and the estimated magnitudes of the environment and dispersal effects in the simultaneous models with those in habitat suitability and colonization kernel models. The values of Akaike’s information criterion for the simultaneous models were better than those of the habitat suitability and colonization kernel models, indicating that the current distribution of Bischofia was determined by both environment and dispersal. The simultaneous models predicted that the potential habitat of Bischofia would be larger than that predicted by the habitat suitability model. The potential habitat distribution and future invasion predicted by the simultaneous models will contribute to the development of specific landscape-scale management plans to control this invasive species.


Dispersal kernel Ecological niche model Exotic species Potential range Ogasawara Islands 



John R. W. Wilson of Stellenbosch University and an anonymous reviewer provided valuable comments on the manuscript. We thank Takeshi Toyoda for contributing unpublished records of the distribution of B. javanica; Ryuji Nakayama of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan and Hiroshi Kawaoka of the Kanto Regional Forest Office for providing digitized distribution data for this species; Munemitsu Akasaka of the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan for providing information about the modelling approaches; Takuya Furukawa of Yokohama National University for proofreading; and Akiko Sakai of Yokohama National University for comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of the manuscript. This study was supported partly by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan under the Research by Global Environment Research Coordination System.

Supplementary material

11284_2009_595_MOESM1_ESM.doc (35 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 35 kb)


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Copyright information

© The Ecological Society of Japan 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Keita Fukasawa
    • 1
  • Fumito Koike
    • 1
  • Nobuyuki Tanaka
    • 2
  • Kayo Otsu
    • 3
  1. 1.Graduate School of Environment and Information SciencesYokohama National UniversityYokohamaJapan
  2. 2.Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteIbarakiJapan
  3. 3.Japan Forest Technology AssociationTokyoJapan

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