Abstract
In arid and semi-arid regions of the world, the occurrence of prolonged drought events (megadroughts) associated with climate change can seriously affect the balance between water supply and demand, thereby severely increasing the susceptibility of such regions to adverse impacts. In this study, a simple framework is introduced to estimate renewable water volumes (RW) to mitigate the challenges of megadrought events by managing the groundwater resources. The framework connects a weighted annual hydrological drought index (wSPEI) to RW, based on the short time-scale precipitation volume. The proposed framework, which was in a proof-of-concept case study applied to the Neishaboor watershed in the semi-arid part of Iran, showed that developing the weighted drought index can be valuable to estimate RW. The results suggested that the wSPEI, aggregating hydrological drought index (HSPEI) with the time scale k = 5 days and the regional coefficient s = 1.3 can be used to estimate RW with reasonable accuracy (R2 = 0.73, RMSE = 11.5 mm year−1). This indicates that in the Neishaboor watershed, the best estimation of RW can be determined by precipitation volumes (or the lack thereof) falling over 5-day aggregation periods rather than by any other time scales. The accuracy of the relationship was then investigated by cross validation (leave-one-out method). According to the results, the proposed framework performed fairly well for the estimation of RW, with R2 = 0.75 and RMSE = 12.2 mm year−1 for k = 5 days. The Overall agreement between the wSPEI, the RW derived from water balance calculations, and the estimated RW by the proposed framework was also assessed for a period of 34 years. It showed that the annual RW followed closely the wSPEI, indicating a reasonable relationship between wSPEI and the annual RW. Accordingly, the proposed framework is capable to estimate the renewable water of a given watershed for different climate change scenarios.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
All data were made available by the Regional Water Company of Khorasan Razavi and the authors have restrictions on sharing them publicly.
Code Availability
The codes are available from the corresponding author by request.
References
Alcamo J, Döll P, Henrichs T et al (2003) Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrol Sci J 48:317–338. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.3.317.45290
Ali Z, Hussain I, Faisal M et al (2019) Selection of appropriate time scale with Boruta algorithm for regional drought monitoring using multi-scaler drought index. Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 71:1604057. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1604057
Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part i: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34:73–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x
Ashraf Vaghefi S, Mousavi SJ, Abbaspour KC et al (2014) Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Hydrol Process 28:2018–2032. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9747
Begueria S, Vicente-serrano SM, Reig F, Latorre B (2014) Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index ( SPEI ) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. Int J Climatol 34:3001–3023. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3887
Brauman KA, Richter BD, Postel S et al (2016) Water depletion: an improved metric for incorporating seasonal and dry-year water scarcity into water risk assessments. Elem Sci Anthr 4:000083. https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000083
Coats S, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Seager R (2015) Are simulated megadroughts in the North American Southwest forced? J Clim 28:124–142. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1
Dembélé M, Hrachowitz M, Savenije HHG et al (2020) Improving the predictive skill of a distributed hydrological model by calibration on spatial patterns with multiple satellite data sets. Water Resour Res 56:e2019WR026085. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026085
Derakhshan H (2017) Expansion of strategic reserve concept in water resources management and development of a framework for hazards mitigation of sever and prolonged droughts based on this concept. MSc Thesis. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Edmunds WM (2003) Renewable and non-renewable groundwater in semi-arid and arid regions. In: Alsharhan AS, Wood WW (eds) Developments in Water Science, p 265–280
Fluixá-Sanmartín J, Pan D, Fischer L et al (2018) Searching for the optimal drought index and timescale combination to detect drought: a case study from the lower Jinsha River basin, China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22:889–910. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-889-2018
Hargreaves G, Samani Z (1982) Estimating potential evapotranspiration. J Irrig Drain Div 108:225–230
Hasheminia S (2021) Water Science & Engineering Dept., College of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. Personal communication
Hrachowitz M, Savenije HHG, Blöschl G et al (2013) A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review. Hydrol Sci J 58:1198–1255. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.803183
Hulsman P, Savenije HHG, Hrachowitz M (2021) Learning from satellite observations: increased understanding of catchment processes through stepwise model improvement. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 25:957–982. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021
Izady A, Davary K, Alizadeh A et al (2015) Groundwater conceptualization and modeling using distributed SWAT-based recharge for the semi-arid agricultural Neishaboor plain. Iran Hydrogeol J 23:47–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-014-1219-9
Jain VK, Pandey RP, Jain MK, Byun H-R (2015) Comparison of drought indices for appraisal of drought characteristics in the Ken River Basin. Weather Clim Extrem 8:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.05.002
Madani K (2014) Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis? J Environ Stud Sci 4:315–328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-014-0182-z
Madani K, Aghakouchak A, Mirchi A (2016) Iran’s socio-economic drought: challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iran Stud 49:997–1016
Mianabadi A, Derakhshan H, Davary K et al (2020) A novel idea for groundwater resource management during megadrought events. Water Resour Manag 34:1743–1755. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02525-4
Nijzink RC, Almeida S, Pechlivanidis IG et al (2018) Constraining conceptual hydrological models with multiple information sources. Water Resour Res 54:8332–8362. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021895
Pei Z, Fang S, Wang L, Yang W (2020) Comparative Analysis of drought indicated by the SPI and SPEI at various timescales in Inner Mongolia. China Water 12:1925. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071925
Razavi S, Davary K, Ghahraman B et al (2017) Development and application of the qausi distributed water balance model (QDWB) in the Neishaboor-Rokh watershed. Water Soil 30:1888–1904 (in Persian)
Reitz M, Sanford WE, Senay GB, Cazenas J (2017) Annual estimates of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and evapotranspiration for the contiguous U.S. Using empirical regression equations. J Am Water Resour Assoc 53:961–983. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12546
Roodari A, Hrachowitz M, Hassanpour F, Yaghoobzadeh M (2021) Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 25:1943–1967. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021
Savenije HHG (2004) The importance of interception and why we should delete the term evapotranspiration from our vocabulary. Hydrol Process 18:1507–1511. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5563
Schuol J, Abbaspour KC, Srinivasan R, Yang H (2008) Estimation of freshwater availability in the West African sub-continent using the SWAT hydrologic model. J Hydrol 352:30–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.025
Şen Z (2021) Reservoirs for water supply under climate change impact—a review. Water Resour Manag. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02925-0
Shuttleworth WJ (1993) Evaporation. In: Handbook of Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York, p 4.1–4.53
Stagge JH, Kohn I, Tallaksen LM, Stahl K (2015) Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe. J Hydrol 530:37–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.039
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/210739
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2013) The RDI as a composite climatic index. Eur Water 41:17–22
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2017) An enhanced effective reconnaissance drought index for the characterisation of agricultural drought. Environ Process 4:137–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-017-0219-x
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2016) Introducing a modified reconnaissance drought index (RDIe) incorporating effective precipitation. Procedia Eng 162:332–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.072
Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H (2007) Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour Manag 21:821–833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9105-4
Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2005) Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. Eur Water 9–10:3–11
Van Loon AF (2013) On the propagation of drought. Wageningen University, How climate and catchment characteristics influence hydrological drought development and recovery
Vangelis H, Tigkas D, Tsakiris G (2013) The effect of PET method on Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) calculation. J Arid Environ 88:130–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.07.020
Velayati S, Tavassoli S (1991) Resources and problems of water in Khorasan province. Astan Ghods Razavi, Mashhad. (in Persian)
Vicente-serrano SM (2006) Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Manag 20:37–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-2974-8
Vicente-Serrano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23:1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Wada Y, van Beek LPH, Viviroli D et al (2011) Global monthly water stress: 2. water demand and severity of water stress. Water Resour Res 47:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009792
Xu H, Wu M, Ha M (2019) A county-level estimation of renewable surface water and groundwater availability associated with potential large-scale bioenergy feedstock production scenarios in the United States. GCB Bioenergy 11:606–622. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12576
Yan E, Milewski A, Sultan M et al (2010) Remote-sensing based approach to improve regional estimation of renewable water resources for sustainable development. US-Egypt Work Sp Technol Geoinf Sustain Dev 1–7
Yosefi M, Ansari H, Mosaedi A, Samadi Z (2017) The relationship between three drought indices with a number of climate parameters in several climatic zones of Iran. Iran-Water Resour Res 13:194–197 (in Persian)
Zammouri M, Brini N (2020) Efficiency of artificial groundwater recharge, quantification through conceptual modelling. Water Resour Manag 34:3345–3361. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02617-1
Funding
The authors did not receive support from any organization for the submitted work.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
The novel idea was initially developed and proposed by K. Davary and was performed in part as a MSc thesis by H. Derakhshan in which K. Davary and S. M. Hasheminia were major professors. The idea was further expanded and completed by K. Davary, and afterwards, A. Mianabadi prepared the first version of the manuscript with considerable contribution from H. Derakhshan. The manuscript was further revised and completed by S. M. Hasheminia and M. Hrachowitz.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics Approval
Not applicable.
Consent to Participate
Not applicable.
Consent to Publish
Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mianabadi, A., Hasheminia, S.M., Davary, K. et al. Estimating the Aquifer’s Renewable Water to Mitigate the Challenges of Upcoming Megadrought Events. Water Resour Manage 35, 4927–4942 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02980-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02980-7