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Identifying the Relationship between Assignments of Scenario Weights and their Positions in the Derivation of Reservoir Operating Rules under Climate Change

  • Wei Zhang
  • Xiaohui Lei
  • Pan Liu
  • Xu Wang
  • Hao Wang
  • Peibing Song
Article
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Abstract

In order to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, adaptive operating rules (AOR) are generally derived using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Up to date, most of related literatures only focus on one fold of the following issues concerning the derivation of AOR using the GCMs ensemble, including: (1) consideration of different scenario weighing methods, or (2) analysis of different positions to locate scenario weights. And less concern is given to the latter compared with the former. However, few studies identify the relationship between (1) and (2) in the derivation of AOR based on the GCMs ensemble. In this study, we attempt to investigate where to use Equal and REA scenario weights in the derivation of reservoir operating rules under climate change. Equal weights (EW) and unequal weights based on the reliability ensemble average (REA) method are used in two positions: (I) the optimization objective of the reservoir operation model, which is to maximize the weighted average hydropower generation for all future scenarios; and (II) the incorporation of GCMs ensemble climate projections into the weighted climate conditions, and then it is input into the reservoir operation model with the objective of maximizing annual hydropower generation. Four AORs, including EW-AOR(I), REA-AOR(I), EW-AOR(II) and REA-AOR(II), are derived, and their optimized parameters are obtained by the simulation-based optimization (SBO) method with the Complex algorithm. The case study in the Jinxi Reservoir in China indicates that REA-AOR(I) outperforms the other three operation schemes, and EW-AOR(II) performs better than REA-AOR(II). Therefore, equal weights are preferably used to incorporate climate conditions, while unequal weights based on REA method can improve the performance of the reservoir operation model. Generally, REA-AOR(I) and EW-AOR(II) are suggested for adaptive reservoir management under climate change.

Keywords

Reservoir operation Climate change Adaptive operating rules GCMs ensemble Scenario weights Position and assignment 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions, which helped to improve the quality of the paper. This study was supported by National Key Research and Development Project (2016YFC0402208), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51709276) and National Key Technology R&D Program (2015BAB07B03).

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Wei Zhang
    • 1
  • Xiaohui Lei
    • 2
  • Pan Liu
    • 1
  • Xu Wang
    • 2
  • Hao Wang
    • 1
    • 2
  • Peibing Song
    • 3
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering ScienceWuhan UniversityWuhanChina
  2. 2.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River BasinChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijingChina
  3. 3.College of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureZhejiang UniversityHangzhouChina

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