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Water Resources Management

, Volume 32, Issue 14, pp 4527–4542 | Cite as

Short-Term Urban Water Demand Prediction Considering Weather Factors

  • Salah L. Zubaidi
  • Sadik K. Gharghan
  • Jayne Dooley
  • Rafid M. Alkhaddar
  • Mawada Abdellatif
Article

Abstract

Accurate and reliable forecasting plays a key role in the planning and designing of municipal water supply infrastructures. Recent studies related to water demand prediction have shown that water demand is driven by weather variables, but the results do not clearly show to what extent. The principal aim of this research was to better understand the effects of weather variables on water demand. Additionally, it aimed to offer an appropriate and reliable technique to predict municipal water demand by using the Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) and Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Moreover, eight weather factors were adopted to evaluate their impact on the water demand. The principal findings of this research are that the hybrid GSA-ANN (Agent = 40) model is superior in terms of fitness function (based on RMSE) for yearly and seasonal phases. In addition, it is evidently clear from the findings that the GSA-ANN model has the ability to simulate both seasonal and yearly patterns for daily data water consumption.

Keywords

Australia Explanatory variables Municipal water demand and neural network model 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The Iraqi Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Wasit University supported this project. I thank Peter Roberts, the Demand Forecasting Manager, Yarra Valley Water for providing all data.

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of Interest

None.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Salah L. Zubaidi
    • 1
    • 2
  • Sadik K. Gharghan
    • 3
  • Jayne Dooley
    • 1
  • Rafid M. Alkhaddar
    • 1
  • Mawada Abdellatif
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringLiverpool John Moores UniversityLiverpoolUK
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of WasitWasitIraq
  3. 3.Department of Medical Instrumentation Techniques Engineering, Electrical Engineering Technical CollegeMiddle Technical University (MTU)BaghdadIraq

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