Water Resources Management

, Volume 32, Issue 2, pp 583–597 | Cite as

Short Term Optimal Operation of Water Supply Reservoir under Flood Control Stress using Model Predictive Control

  • Gökçen Uysal
  • Dirk Schwanenberg
  • Rodolfo Alvarado-Montero
  • Aynur Şensoy


Reservoir operations require enhanced operating procedures for water systems under stress attributed to growing water demand and consequences of changing hydro-climatic conditions. This study focuses on the management of the Yuvacik Dam Reservoir for water supply and flood mitigation in the Marmara Region of Turkey. We present an improved operating technique for fulfilling the conflicting water supply and flood mitigation objectives. This is accomplished by incorporating the long term water supply objectives into a Guide Curve (GC) whereas the extreme floods are attenuated by means of short-term optimization based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The reference case implements operating rules with a constant GC at maximum forebay elevation targeting the fulfillment of the water supply objective. We compare the reference with a new time-dependent GC, derived using an Implicit Stochastic Optimization (ISO) approach. This new curve shows nearly the same performance regarding the water supply objectives, but significantly reduces the flooding risk downstream of the dam. Possible flood events observed at the end of the wet season, when the reservoir is at the maximum level to enable water supply for the dry season, can be eliminated by the application of an additional short-term optimization by MPC. The robustness of the approach is demonstrated via hindcasting experiments.


Reservoir operation Optimization Simulation Water supply Flood mitigation Model Predictive Control 



The first author would like to thank The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for the scholarship (2214A program). This study is also supported by Anadolu University BAP-1506F502 and partly supported by TUBITAK 109Y218 projects. Graphs are prepared by Daniel’s XL Toolbox and MATLAB 2012a (License number: 991708).

Supplementary material

11269_2017_1828_Fig10_ESM.gif (81 kb)
Online Resource 1

Observed forebay elevation vs. inflows and outflows (demands and spillages) (GIF 81 kb)

11269_2017_1828_MOESM1_ESM.tif (1.7 mb)
High resolution image (TIFF 1789 kb)
11269_2017_1828_Fig11_ESM.gif (69 kb)
Online Resource 2

Flood scenario and perturbed flood scenarios (GIF 68 kb)

11269_2017_1828_MOESM2_ESM.tif (1.8 mb)
High resolution image (TIFF 1842 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of Duisburg-EssenEssenGermany
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringAnadolu UniversityEskişehirTurkey
  3. 3.KISTERS AGAachenGermany

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