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Water Resources Management

, Volume 30, Issue 13, pp 4603–4616 | Cite as

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Roorkee, India

  • Ronit Singh
  • D. S. AryaEmail author
  • A. K. Taxak
  • Z. Vojinovic
Article

Abstract

Intensification and frequency of hydrologic events are attributed to climate change and are expected to increase in coming future. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves quantify the extreme precipitation and are used extensively to assess the return periods of rainfall events. It is expected that climate change will modify the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. Thus a need of updating IDF curves arises under the climate change scenario. This paper aims at updating the IDF curves for a typical Indian town using an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for all the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Sub-daily maximum intensities (15-, 30-, 45-, 60-, 120-, and 180 min) were obtained from the observed records. Equidistance quantile method was used to study the relationships between the historical and projected GCM data, and the historical GCM and observed sub-daily data. This relationship was used to obtain projected sub-daily intensities. The IDF curves were developed using observed and projected data. Analysis of the curves indicated increase in precipitation intensities for all the RCP scenarios. It was also found that intensities of all return periods increases with intensifying RCP scenarios. The variation in the intensities across the GCMs was attributed to the driving forces considered in a particular GCM.

Keywords

Climate change Extreme rainfall IDF curves Statistical downscaling Equidistant quantile matching Gumbel distribution 

Abbreviations

AA

Anthropogenic aerosols

Ant

Anthropogenic forcing (a mixture that might include GHGS, aerosols, ozone, and land-use changes).

BC

black carbon

Ds

Dust

GHG

well-mixed greenhouse gases

LU

land-use change

MD

mineral dust

Nat

natural forcing (a combination, not explicitly defined here, that might include, for example, Sl and VL)

OC

organic carbon

Oz

(= TO + SO) ozone (= tropospheric and stratospheric ozone)

SA

(= SD + SI) anthropogenic sulfate aerosol direct and indirect effects

SD

anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, accounting only for direct effects

SI

anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, accounting only for indirect effects

Sl

solar irradiance

SO

stratospheric ozone

SS

sea salt

TO

tropospheric ozone

Vl

volcanic aerosols

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ronit Singh
    • 1
  • D. S. Arya
    • 1
    Email author
  • A. K. Taxak
    • 1
  • Z. Vojinovic
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of HydrologyIndian Institute of Technology RoorkeeRoorkeeIndia
  2. 2.UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water EducationDelftNetherlands

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