Hydrologic Determinants of Climate Change Impacts on Regulated Water Resources Systems
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This paper assesses the effect of climate change on water availability for consumptive use for a river basin taking into account the regulation capacity of its water supply systems and a set of management standards (restrictions, demands, reliability). A specific sensitivity index to climate change defined by the relation between the unitary variation of water availability and the unitary variation of the average annual inflow is studied. The analysis is conducted by constructing climate projections taking into consideration changes only in mean annual streamflow and changes in both the mean and the coefficient of variation of the annual streamflow. The study area includes 567 basins which cover practically the entire territory of continental Spain. The results show a significant sensitivity to changes in the coefficient of variation for regulated systems.
KeywordsWater availability climate change Regulation Variability Sensitivity
This research has been supported by European Commission through Project BASE (Bottom Up Climate Adaptation Strategies Towards a Sustainable Europe, Grant 335 Agreement No. 308337), the ARCO project (200800050084350) of the Spanish Ministry of Environment, Rural and Marin Affairs (MARM) and CYTED Action VIAGUA (410 AC0399). Data have been provided through the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the European Union through contract EVK2-CT2001-00132.
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