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Water Resources Management

, Volume 28, Issue 12, pp 4319–4335 | Cite as

Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression

  • Milan Stojković
  • Aleksandra Ilić
  • Stevan Prohaska
  • Jasna Plavšić
Article

Abstract

Global warming affects the hydrological cycle and the long-term water budget of river basins. Flow variations have been noticed in the Danube River Basin, especially in its south-western parts where a downward trend in mean annual flows has been prevalent in the past several decades. Time series of mean annual and seasonal flows of the Sava River at hydrological stations Sremska Mitrovica and Zagreb are analysed in this paper. The trend is assessed with the Mann-Kendall test including the effect of serial correlation. Additionally, the trends are assessed in the multi-temporal framework. It is concluded that the long-term periodicity of annual flows has a considerable impact on the time series trend. Long-term component with cycles of 40 years in mean annual flows are detected by the time series analysis in frequency domain. Regression analysis showed a significant correlation between mean annual flows of the Sava River and annual precipitation, mean annual atmospheric pressure and air temperatures at meteorological station Ljubljana, as well as with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index.

Keywords

Multi-temporal trend analysis Mann-Kendall test Periodicity Multiple non-linear regression Sava river 

Notes

Acknowledgment

The research presented in this paper is funded by the Republic of Serbia Ministry of Education and Science as a part of a research project “Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Serbia” (TR-37005) for the period 2011–2014. The authors are also grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions for improving this paper.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Milan Stojković
    • 1
  • Aleksandra Ilić
    • 2
  • Stevan Prohaska
    • 1
  • Jasna Plavšić
    • 3
  1. 1.Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water ResourcesBelgradeSerbia
  2. 2.Faculty of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureUniversity of NišNišSerbia
  3. 3.Faculty of Civil EngineeringUniversity of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia

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