Spatial Optimization Models for Water Supply Allocation
- 650 Downloads
Climate change is likely to result in increased aridity, lower runoff, and declining water supplies for the cities of the Southwestern United States, including Phoenix. The situation in Phoenix is particularly complicated by the large number of water providers, each with its own supply portfolio, demand conditions, and conservation strategies. This paper details spatial optimization models to support water supply allocation between service provider districts, where some districts experience deficits and others experience surpluses in certain years. The approach seeks to reconcile and integrate projections derived from a complex simulation model taking into account current and future climate conditions. The formulated and applied models are designed to help better understand the expected increasingly complex interactions of providers under conditions of climate change. Preliminary results show cooperative agreements would reduce spot shortages that would occur even without climate change. In addition, they would substantially reduce deficits if climate change were to moderately reduce river flows in Phoenix’s major source regions, but have little effect under the most pessimistic scenarios because there are few surpluses available for re-allocation.
KeywordsSpatial optimization Multi-agency planning and coordination Climate change
This article is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0345945, Decision Center for a Desert City. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
- Arizona Department of Administration (2011a). http://www.workforce.az.gov/census-data.aspx (Last accessed October 31, 2011).
- Arizona Department of Administration (2011b), http://www.workforce.az.gov/population-projections.aspx (Last accessed November 1, 2011).
- Gober P (2006) Metropolitan Phoenix: place making and community building in the desert. University of Pennsylvania Press, PhiladelphiaGoogle Scholar
- Lempert RJ, Popper SW, Bankes SC (2003) Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND CorporationGoogle Scholar
- National Research Council (2007) Colorado River Basin water management: Evaluating and adjusting to hydroclimatic variability. Washington, DC: National Academies PressGoogle Scholar
- Samuelson PA (1952) Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming. Am Econ Rev 42(3):283–303Google Scholar