Advertisement

Water Resources Management

, Volume 25, Issue 4, pp 1229–1238 | Cite as

Water Network Assessment and Reliability Analysis by Use of Survival Analysis

  • Symeon E. Christodoulou
Article

Abstract

A holistic and sustainable strategy for the management of urban water distribution networks should be composed of two equally important pillars: (1) efficient methods for monitoring, repairing or replacing aging infrastructure, and (2) effective tools for modelling the deterioration in the network and for proactively assessing the risk of failure of its components so as to devise preventive measures for avoiding such failures. The paper presents a framework for devising such a proactive risk-based integrity-monitoring strategy for the management of urban water distribution networks. The framework presented is based on a combination of artificial neural network, parametric and nonparametric survival analysis and it is utilized in the estimation of time-to-failure metrics for pipe networks.

Keywords

Water distribution networks Decision support system Risk analysis Survival analysis 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andreou SA, Marks DH, Clark RM (1987) New methodology for modelling break failure patterns in deteriorating water distribution systems: applications. Adv Water Resour 10:2–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Aslani P (2003) Hazard rate modeling and risk analysis of water mains. MSc. thesis, Polytechnic University, BrooklynGoogle Scholar
  3. Christodoulou S, Deligianni A (2009) A neurofuzzy decision framework for the management of water distribution networks. Water Resour Manag 24(1):139–156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Christodoulou S, Aslani P, Vanrenterghem A (2003) A risk analysis framework for evaluating structural degradation of water mains in urban settings, using neurofuzzy systems and statistical modeling techniques. In: Proc. world water & environmental resources congress 2003 and related symposia, Pennsylvania, USAGoogle Scholar
  5. Christodoulou S, Charalambous B, Adamou A (2007) Managing the ‘repair or replace’ dilemma on water leakages. In: Proc. international water association’s (IWA) third specialty conference on water loss reduction (Water loss 2007), Bucharest, RomaniaGoogle Scholar
  6. Clark RM, Stafford CL, Goodrich JA (1982) Water distribution systems: a spatial and cost evaluation. J Water Resour Plan Manage Div 108:243–256Google Scholar
  7. Cox DR (1972) Regression models and life-tables. J R Stat Soc B 34(2):187–220Google Scholar
  8. Epanechnikov VA (1969) Nonparametric estimation of a multidimensional probability density. Theor Probab Applt 14:153–158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Fattahi P, Fayyaz S (2009) A compromise programming model to integrated urban water management. J Water Resour Plan Manage 24(6):1211–1227Google Scholar
  10. Goulter IC, Kazemi A (1988) Spatial and temporal groupings of water main pipe breakage in Winnipeg. Can J Civ Eng 15:91–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hintze J (2006) NCSS, PASS and GESS. NCSS, KaysvilleGoogle Scholar
  12. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S, May S (2008) Applied survival analysis: regression modeling of time to event data. Wiley, HobokenGoogle Scholar
  13. Kanakoudis VK, Tolikas DK (2004) Assessing the performance level of a water system. Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus 4(4):307–318CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kaplan EL, Meier P (1958) Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Stat Assoc 53:457–481CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Klein JP, Moeschberger ML (1997) Survival analysis techniques for censored and truncated data. Springer, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  16. Kleiner Y, Rajani B (1999) Using limited data to assess future needs. J Am Water Works Assoc 91:47–61Google Scholar
  17. Lee ET, Wang JW (2003) Statistical methods for survival data analysis. Wiley, HobokenCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Park S (2008) Identifying the hazard characteristics of pipes in water distribution systems by using the proportional hazards model: theory. KSCE J Civ Eng 8(6):663–668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Pinto J, Varum H, Bentes I, Agarwal J (2010) A Theory of Vulnerability of Water Pipe Network (TVWPN). Water Resour Manag. doi: 10.1007/s11269-010-9655-3 (in print)Google Scholar
  20. Prasad TD, Hong S-H, Park N (2003) Reliability based design of water distribution networks using multi-objective genetic algorithms. KSCE J Civ Eng 7(3):351–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Shamir U, Howard C (1979) An analytical approach to scheduling pipe replacement. J Am Water Works Assoc 71:248–258Google Scholar
  22. Tuhovcak L, Rucka J, Juhanak T (2006) Security of water supply systems: from source to tap. NATO science for peace and security series C: environmental security, vol 8. Springer, Netherlands, pp 169–182Google Scholar
  23. Vanrenterghem-Raven A, Eisenbeis P, Juran I, Christodoulou S (2004) Statistical modeling of the structural degradation of an urban water distribution system: case study of New York City. In: Proc. world water & environmental resources congress 2003 and related symposia, Pennsylvania, USAGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of CyprusNicosiaCyprus

Personalised recommendations