Water Resources Management

, Volume 24, Issue 13, pp 3527–3545

Vulnerability Analysis of Future Public Water Supply Under Changing Climate Conditions: A Study of the Moy Catchment, Western Ireland


DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9618-8

Cite this article as:
Hall, J. & Murphy, C. Water Resour Manage (2010) 24: 3527. doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9618-8


An application of the Water Evaluation and Planning tool Version 21 (WEAP21) is developed to analyse the vulnerability of the future public water supply in the River Moy catchment, western Ireland. The River Moy’s future hydrology is modelled using the WEAP21 integrated rainfall runoff module and an ensemble of statistically downscaled future climate series. This approach facilitates the identification of the most vulnerable future public water supplies without being constrained by the availability of historically observed streamflow records. The model is calibrated by linking the model-independent parameter estimation tool (PEST) with the hydrological model and verified by reproducing observed streamflow records. This research suggests an emerging vulnerability to water stress of the public water supply sector under the four modelled scenarios, for areas which currently have plenty of water available. These results present a basis for future planning and management of the Moy catchment and its water resources.


Climate change Ireland PEST Public water supply Vulnerability assessment Water stress WEAP21 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS)National University of Ireland MaynoothCo. KildareIreland

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