Advertisement

Water Resources Management

, 23:439 | Cite as

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran

  • Tayeb Raziei
  • Bahram Saghafian
  • Ana A. Paulo
  • Luis S. Pereira
  • Isabella Bordi
Article

Abstract

An analysis of drought in western Iran from 1966 to 2000 is presented using monthly precipitation data observed at 140 gauges uniformly distributed over the area. Drought conditions have been assessed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To study the long-term drought variability the principal component analysis was applied to the SPI field computed on 12-month time scale. The analysis shows that applying an orthogonal rotation to the first two principal component patterns, two distinct sub-regions having different climatic variability may be identified. Results have been compared to those obtained for the large-scale using re-analysis data suggesting a satisfactory agreement. Furthermore, the extension of the large-scale analysis to a longer period (1948–2007) shows that the spatial patterns and the associated time variability of drought are subjected to noticeable changes. Finally, the relationship between hydrological droughts in the two sub-regions and El Niño Southern Oscillation events has been investigated finding that there is not clear evidence for a link between the two phenomena.

Keywords

Drought variability Standardized precipitation index Principal component analysis ENSO events 

References

  1. Agrawala S, Barlow M, Cullen H, Lyon B (2001) The drought and humanitarian crisis in Central and Southwest Asia: a climate perspective, IRI special report N. 01-11. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, p 24Google Scholar
  2. Bonaccorso B, Bordi I, Cancelliere A, Rossi G, Sutera A (2003) Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour Manag 17:273–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bordi I, Sutera A (2001) Fifty years of precipitation: some spatially remote teleconnnections. Water Resour Manag 15:247–280CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bordi I, Sutera A (2002) An analysis of drought in Italy in the last fifty years. Nuovo Cimento C 25C:185–206Google Scholar
  5. Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Jiang J-M, Sutera A (2004a) Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 79:81–91CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC, Sutera A (2004b) Potential predictability of dry and wet periods: Sicily and Elbe-Basin (Germany). Theor Appl Climatol 77:125–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Petitta M, Sutera A (2006) Large-scale assessment of drought variability based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 re-analyses. Water Resour Manag 20:899–915CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Dinpashoh Y, Fakheri-Fard A, Moghaddam M, Jahanbakhsh S, Mirnia M (2004) Selection of variables for the purpose of regionalization of Iran’s precipitation climate using multivariate methods. J Hydrol 297:109–123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Domroes M, Kaviani M, Schaefer D (1998) An analysis of regional and intra-annual precipitation variability over Iran using multivariate statistical methods. Theor Appl Climatol 61:151–159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Guttman NB (1998) Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34(1):113–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Guttman NB (1999) Accepting the standardised precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J Am Water Resour Assn 35:311–322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Wilhite DA, Vanyarkho OV (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 80:429–438CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Heim RR Jr (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83:1149–1165Google Scholar
  14. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, AmsterdamCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Roy J, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77:437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Keyantash J, Dracup JA (2002) The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83:1167–1180Google Scholar
  17. Lana X, Serra C, Burgueño A (2001) Patterns of monthly rainfall shortage and excess in terms of the standardized precipitation index for Catalonia (NE Spain). Int J Climatol 21:1669–1691CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders BA (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22:1571–1592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, 17–22 January, Anaheim, CA, Am Meteor Soc, Boston, MA, 179–184Google Scholar
  20. Mishra AK, Desai VR (2005) Drought forecasting using stochastic models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 19:326–339CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Moreira EE, Coelho CA, Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Mexia JT (2008) SPI-based drought category prediction using log linear models. J Hydrol doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.002
  22. Morid S, Smakhtin V, Moghaddasi M (2006) Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. Int J Climatol 26:971–985CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Nazemosadat MJ, Cordery I (2000) On the relationships between ENSO and autumn rainfall in Iran. Int J Climatol 20:47–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Nazemosadat MJ, Ghasemi AR (2004) Quantifying the ENSO-related shifts in the intensity and probability of drought and wet periods in Iran. J Climate 17:4005–4018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Wea Rev 110:699–706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought, tech. report no. 45. U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau Research, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  27. Paulo AA, Pereira LS (2006) Drought concepts and characterization: comparing drought indices applied at local and regional scales. Water Int 31:37–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Paulo AA, Pereira LS (2007) Prediction of SPI drought class transitions using Markov chains. Water Resour Manag 21:1813–1827CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Matias PG (2003) Analysis of local and regional droughts in southern Portugal using the theory of runs and the standardized precipitation index. In: Rossi G, Cancelliere A, Pereira LS, Oweis T, Shatanawi M, Zairi A (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in Mediterranean regions. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 55–78Google Scholar
  30. Paulo AA, Ferreira E, Coelho C, Pereira LS (2005) Drought class transition analysis through Markov and log linear models, an approach to early warning. Agric Water Manag 77:59–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Peel MC, McMahon TA, Finlayson BL (2002) Variability of annual precipitation and its relationship to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Climate 15:545–551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Pereira LS, Cordery I, Iacovides I (2002) Coping with water scarcity, UNESCO IHP VI, technical documents in hydrology, no. 58. UNESCO, ParisGoogle Scholar
  33. Raziei T, Azizi G (2007) A precipitation based regionalization in western Iran using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Iran-Water Resour Res 3:62–65Google Scholar
  34. Rencher AC (1998) Multivariate statistical inference and applications. Wiley, Hoboken, p 559Google Scholar
  35. Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. J Climatol 6:293–335CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1996) Quantifying southern oscillation–precipitation relationships. J Climate 9:1043–1059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Soltani S, Modarres R (2006) Classification of spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall in Iran using a hierarchical and divisive cluster analysis. J Spat Hydro 6:1–12Google Scholar
  38. Szalai S, Szinell C (2000) Comparison of two drought indices for drought monitoring in Hungary—a case study. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, 161–166. Kluwer, Dordrecht, p 325Google Scholar
  39. Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2004) Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour Manag 18:1–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Vicente-Serrano SM (2005) El Niño and La Niña influence on droughts at different timescales in the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Res 41:W12415, doi:10.1029/2004WR003908 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Vicente-Serrano SM, González-Hidalgo JC, De Luis M, Raventós J (2004) Drought patterns in the Mediterranean area: the Valencia region (eastern Spain). Clim Res 26:5–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Vogel RM, Stedinger JR (1985) Minimum variance streamflow record augmentation procedure. Water Resour Res 21:715–723CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 484Google Scholar
  44. Wilhite DA (1997) Responding to drought: common threads from the past, visions for the future. J Am Water Resour Assoc 33:951–959CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tayeb Raziei
    • 1
  • Bahram Saghafian
    • 1
  • Ana A. Paulo
    • 2
  • Luis S. Pereira
    • 2
  • Isabella Bordi
    • 3
  1. 1.Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI)TehranIran
  2. 2.Agricultural Engineering Research Center, Institute of AgronomyTechnical University of LisbonLisbonPortugal
  3. 3.Department of PhysicsUniversity of Rome “La Sapienza”RomeItaly

Personalised recommendations