Plant Ecology

, Volume 219, Issue 10, pp 1259–1267 | Cite as

Projected drought effects on the demography of Ashe juniper populations inferred from remote measurements of tree canopies

  • H. Wayne Polley
  • Daniel M. Johnson
  • Robert B. Jackson


Tree mortality from drought is anticipated to increase as climate change promotes more frequent or severe water limitation. Ecosystem impacts of woody mortality depend on both the number and sizes of trees that die, but a limited capacity to predict mortality risk for individual trees hinders the capacity to forecast drought effects on tree population demography and ecosystem processes. We remotely measured leaf area of living Ashe juniper trees at three savanna sites in central Texas, USA to characterize the frequency-size distribution (FSD) of juniper populations and evaluate mortality risk from drought as a function of tree size. Mortality risk of individuals was assessed from the deviation in leaf area per tree from that of a similarly sized individual with near maximal leaf area using correlations among leaf area, growth rate, and mortality measured during a prior drought. We found that the FSD of juniper trees is bell-shaped at each site. Mortality risk from drought exceeded 25% of emergent (> 4 m height) trees in savanna juniper populations, but was highest for largest trees. Mortality risk was greatest at a grazed savanna, exceeding 50% of trees with projected canopy area > 20 m2. Results imply that severe drought could kill a large fraction (18–85%) of intermediate- to large-sized Ashe juniper trees in central Texas savannas. Our analysis demonstrates a novel use of remote measurements of canopy foliation to link mortality risk from drought to the demography of Ashe juniper populations through properties of individual trees.


Canopy area Climate change Leaf area Remote sensing Savanna Tree mortality 



Assistance from Chris Kolodziejczyk and Katherine Jones was critical. We are indebted to Texas Parks and Wildlife staff at Colorado Bend State Park and Ms. Lois Reiter for their gracious cooperation. This project was funded under a Grant from USDA-AFRI (#2012-00857). Mention of trade names or commercial products does not imply endorsement by the US Department of Agriculture. USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.


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Copyright information

© This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply  2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.USDA–Agricultural Research Service, Grassland, Soil & Water Research LaboratoryTempleUSA
  2. 2.Warnell School of Forestry and Natural ResourcesUniversity of GeorgiaAthensUSA
  3. 3.Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for EnergyStanford UniversityStanfordUSA

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