Modeling the dynamics of backyard chicken flows in traditional trade networks in Thailand: implications for surveillance and control of avian influenza
In Southeast Asia, traditional poultry marketing chains have been threatened by epidemics caused by the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) virus. In Thailand, the trade of live backyard chickens is based on the activities of traders buying chickens from villages and supplying urban markets with chicken meat. This study aims to quantify the flows of chickens traded during a 1-year period in a province of Thailand. A compartmental stochastic dynamic model was constructed to illustrate trade flows of live chickens from villages to slaughterhouses. Live poultry movements present important temporal variations with increased activities during the 15 days preceding the Chinese New Year and, to a lesser extent, other festivals (Qingming Festival, Thai New Year, Hungry Ghost Festival, and International New Year). The average distance of poultry movements ranges from 4 to 25 km, defining a spatial scale for the risk of avian influenza that spread through traditional poultry marketing chains. Some characteristics of traditional poultry networks in Thailand, such as overlapping chicken supply zones, may facilitate disease diffusion over longer distances through combined expansion and relocation processes. This information may be of use in tailoring avian influenza and other emerging infectious poultry disease surveillance and control programs provided that the cost-effectiveness of such scenarios is also evaluated in further studies.
KeywordsAvian influenza Backyard chickens Epidemiology Live poultry traders Stochastic model
The authors are grateful to the Franco-Thai PHC Program in Higher Education and Research for their financial support in the field survey. We gratefully thank Ms. Thitiya Seekhsamban, Ms. Poonyapat Sedwisai, and Ms. Tatiyanuch Chamsai for their contributions in the field study. We acknowledge the Department of Livestock Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand for providing the backyard chicken census data, and we thank all live backyard chicken traders for their participation in this work. We are grateful to Dr. Ann Dernburg for the manuscript reviews. We thank the three reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.
- Alders, R., Awuni, J.A., Bagnol, B., Farrell, P. and de Haan, N., 2013. Impact of avian influenza on village poultry production globally, Ecohealth, 1--10.Google Scholar
- Choprakarn, K. and Wongpichet, K., 2007. Village chicken production systems in Thailand. In: O. Thieme and D Pilling (eds.), Proceedings of the international poultry conference, Bangkok, Thailand, November 5–7, 2007, 63--64Google Scholar
- Fournie, G., Guitian, J., Desvaux, S., Mangtani, P., Ly, S., Cong, V.C., San, S., Dung do, H., Holl, D., Pfeiffer, D.U., Vong, S. and Ghani, A.C., 2012. Identifying live bird markets with the potential to act as reservoirs of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus: a survey in northern Viet Nam and Cambodia, PLOS ONE, 7, e37986PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Fournie, G., Guitian, J., Desvaux, S., Cuong, V.C., Dung, D.H., Pfeiffer, D.U., Mangtani, P. and Ghani, A.C., 2013. Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, 9177--9182PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Martin, V., Zhou, X., Marshall, E., Jia, B., Fusheng, G., FrancoDixon, M.A., DeHaan, N., Pfeiffer, D.U., Soares Magalhaes, R.J. and Gilbert, M., 2011. Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in south China: the value of social network analysis, Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 102, 196--205PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Paul, M., Baritaux, V., Wongnarkpet, S., Poolkhet, C., Thanapongtharm, W., Roger, F., Bonnet, P. and Ducrot, C., 2013. Practices associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza spread in traditional poultry marketing chains: social and economic perspectives, Acta Tropica, 126, 43--53PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Poolkhet, C., Chairatanayuth, P., Thongratsakul, S., Yatbantoong, N., Kasemsuwan, S., Damchoey, D. and Rukkwamsuk, T., 2012. Social network analysis for assessment of avian influenza spread and trading patterns of backyard chickens in Nakhon Pathom, Suphan Buri and Ratchaburi, Thailand, Zoonoses and Public Health, 60, 448--455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Poolkhet, C., Chairatanayuth, P., Thongratsakul, S., Kasemsuwan, S. and Rukkwamsuk, T., 2013. Social network analysis used to assess the relationship between the spread of avian influenza and movement patterns of backyard chickens in Ratchaburi, Thailand, Research in Veterinary Science, 95, 82--86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Siengsanan-Lamont, J., Robertson, I.D., Blacksell, S.D., Ellis, T., Saengchoowong, S., Suwanpukdee, S., Yongyuttawichai, P., Cheewajorn, K., Jangjaras, J., Chaichoun, K., Wiriyarat, W. and Ratanakorn, P., 2013. A study of risk factors for infection with HPAI H5N1 in small poultry farms in Thailand using a questionnaire survey, Zoonoses and Public Health, 60, 209--214PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Soares Magalhães, R.J., Ortiz-Pelaez, A., Lai Thi, K.L., Dinh, T.T., Otte, J. and Pfeiffer, D.U., 2010. Associations between attributes of live poultry trade and HPAI H5N1 outbreaks: a descriptive and network analysis study in northern Vietnam, BMC Veterinary Research, 6Google Scholar
- Tiensin, T., Chaitaweesub, P., Songserm, T., Chaisingh, A., Hoonsuwan, W., Buranathai, C., Parakamawongsa, T., Premashthira, S., Amonsin, A., Gilbert, M., Nielen, M. and Stegeman, A., 2005. Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1, Thailand, 2004, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 11, 1664--1672PubMedCentralPubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tiensin, T., Ahmed, S.S., Rojanasthien, S., Songserm, T., Ratanakorn, P., Chaichoun, K., Kalpravidh, W., Wongkasemjit, S., Patchimasiri, T., Chanachai, K., Thanapongtham, W., Chotinan, S., Stegeman, A. and Nielen, M., 2009. Ecologic risk factor investigation of clusters of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in Thailand, Journal of Infectious Diseases, 199, 1735--1743PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar