A unified account of the conjunction fallacy by coherence
- 81 Downloads
We propose a coherence account of the conjunction fallacy applicable to both of its two paradigms (the M–A paradigm and the A–B paradigm). We compare our account with a recent proposal by Tentori et al. (J Exp Psychol Gen 142(1): 235–255, 2013) that attempts to generalize earlier confirmation accounts. Their model works better than its predecessors in some respects, but it exhibits only a shallow form of generality and is unsatisfactory in other ways as well: it is strained, complex, and untestable as it stands. Our coherence account inherits the strength of the confirmation account, but in addition to being applicable to both paradigms, it is natural, simple, and readily testable. It thus constitutes the next natural step for Bayesian theorizing about the conjunction fallacy.
KeywordsConjunction fallacy M–A paradigm A–B paradigm Confirmation account Coherence account Coherence measure
We would like to thank Stefan Schubert for feedback on an early version of this manuscript and anonymous referees of this journal for detailed comments and helpful suggestions.
- Bovens, L., & Hartmann, S. (2003). Bayesian epistemology. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- Burnham, K. P., & Anderson, D. R. (2002). Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information-theoretic approach. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
- Carnap, R. (1950). Logical foundations of probability. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
- Chisholm, R. (1966). Theory of knowledge. Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
- Lewis, C. I. (1946). An analysis of knowledge and valuation. La Salle IL: Open Court.Google Scholar
- Roche, W. (2013). Coherence and probability: A probabilistic account of coherence. In M. Araszkiewicz & J. Šavelka (Eds.), Coherence: Insights from philosophy (pp. 59–91). Jurisprudence and Artificial Intelligence New York: Springer.Google Scholar
- Siebel, M. (2002). There’s something about Linda: Probability, coherence and rationality. First salzburg workshop on paradigms of cognition, salzburg. http://www.uni-oldenburg.de/fileadmin/user_upload/philosophie/download/Mitarbeiter/Siebel/Siebel_Linda.pdf.
- Thagard, P. (1992). Conceptual revolutions. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar