, Volume 191, Issue 8, pp 1857–1866 | Cite as

Iffy predictions and proper expectations



What individuates the speech act of prediction? The standard view is that prediction is individuated by the fact that it is the unique speech act that requires future-directed content. We argue against this view and two successor views. We then lay out several other potential strategies for individuating prediction, including the sort of view we favor. We suggest that prediction is individuated normatively and has a special connection to the epistemic standards of expectation. In the process, we advocate some constraints that we think a good theory of prediction should respect.


Prediction Assertion Speech acts Epistemic norms Constitutive norms 


  1. Benton, M. A. (2011). Two more for the knowledge account of assertion. Analysis, 71, 684–687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Benton, M. A. (2012). Assertion, knowledge, and predictions. Analysis, 72, 102–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Brown, J. (2010). Knowledge and assertion. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 81, 549–566.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brown, J., & Cappelen, H. (Eds.). (2011). Assertion: New philosophical essays. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  5. Davis, S. (1994). Anti-individualism and speech act theory. In S. Tsohatzidis (Ed.), Foundations of speech act theory. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  6. DeRose, K. (2009). The case for contextualism. Oxford: Clarendon Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Gauker, C. (2003). Social externalism and linguistic communication. In J. Frapolli & E. Romero (Eds.), Meaning, basic self-knowledge, and mind. Stanford, CA: CSLI Publications.Google Scholar
  8. Geach, P. (1965). Assertion. The Philosophical Review, 74, 449–465.Google Scholar
  9. Harnish, R. (2009). Internalism and externalism and speech act theory. Lodz Papers in Pragmatics, 5, 9–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Kelp, C. (2013). A practical explication of the knowledge rule for informative speech acts. European Journal of Philosophy, 21, 367–383.Google Scholar
  11. Lackey, J. (2011). Assertion and isolated second-hand knowledge. In J. Brown & H. Cappelen (Eds.), Assertion: New philosophical essays (pp. 251–275). Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Searle, J. R. (1979). Expression and meaning: Studies in the theory of speech acts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Turri, J. (2010). Epistemic invariantism and speech act contextualism. The Philosophical Review, 119, 77–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Turri, J. (2011). The express knowledge account of assertion. Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 89, 37–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Turri, J. (2013a). Knowledge guaranteed. Noûs, 47, 602–612.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Turri, J. (2013b). The test of truth: An experimental investigation of the norm of assertion. Cognition, 129, 279–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Weiner, M. (2005). Must we know what we say? The Philosophical Review, 114, 227–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Williamson, T. (2000). Knowledge and its limits. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of OxfordOxfordUK
  2. 2.University of WaterlooWaterlooCanada

Personalised recommendations