Advertisement

Synthese

, Volume 182, Issue 3, pp 393–411 | Cite as

Self-location is no problem for conditionalization

  • D. J. Bradley
Article

Abstract

How do temporal and eternal beliefs interact? I argue that acquiring a temporal belief should have no effect on eternal beliefs for an important range of cases. Thus, I oppose the popular view that new norms of belief change must be introduced for cases where the only change is the passing of time. I defend this position from the purported counter-examples of the Prisoner and Sleeping Beauty. I distinguish two importantly different ways in which temporal beliefs can be acquired and draw some general conclusions about their impact on eternal beliefs.

Keywords

Sleeping Beauty Self-location Conditionalization The Prisoner 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Arntzenius F. (2002) Reflections on Sleeping Beauty. Analysis 62(273): 53–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Arntzenius F. (2003) Some problems for conditionalization and reflection. Journal of Philosophy 100: 356–370Google Scholar
  3. Bradley D. J. (2003) Sleeping Beauty: A note on Dorr’s argument for 1/3. Analysis 63: 266–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bradley D.J., Leitgeb H. (2006) When betting odds and credences come apart: More worries for Dutch book arguments. Analysis 66(2): 119–127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bradley, D. J. (2010) “Conditionalization and beliefs De SeDialectica.Google Scholar
  6. Bradley, D. J. (forthcoming). Confirmation in a branching world: The Everett interpretation and Sleeping Beauty. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.Google Scholar
  7. Briggs (ms). Putting a value on Beauty.Google Scholar
  8. Bostrom H. (2007) Sleeping beauty and self-location: A hybrid model. Synthese 157(1): 59–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Dorr C. (2002) Sleeping Beauty: In defence of Elga. Analysis 62: 292–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dieks D. (2007) Reasoning about the future. Synthese 156: 427–439CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Draper K., Pust J. (2008) Diachronic Dutch books and Sleeping Beauty. Synthese 164(2): 282–287CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Earman J. (1992) Bayes or bust. MIT Press, Cambridge, MAGoogle Scholar
  13. Elga A. (2000) Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem. Analysis 60: 143–147CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Elga, A. (2004). Defeating Dr. Evil with self-locating belief. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 69(2).Google Scholar
  15. Greaves H., Wallace D. (2006) Justifying conditionalization: Conditionalization maximizes expected epistemic utility. Mind 115(459): 607–632CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Halpern, J. (2004). Sleeping Beauty reconsidered: Conditioning and reflection in asynchronous systems. In Proceedings of the Twentieth conference on uncertainty in AI, pp. 226–234.Google Scholar
  17. Hitchcock C. (2004) Beauty and the bets. Synthese 139(3): 405–420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hoefer C. (2007) The third way on objective probability: A sceptic’s guide to objective chance. Mind 116(463): 549–596CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Horgan T. (2004) Sleeping Beauty awakened: New odds at the dawn of the new day. Analysis 64: 10–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Horgan T. (2007) Synchronic Bayesian updating and the generalized Sleeping Beauty problem. Analysis 67(293): 50–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Howson C., Urbach P. (1993) Scientific reasoning: The Bayesian approach (2nd ed.). Open Court, ChicagoGoogle Scholar
  22. Jenkins C. (2005) Sleeping Beauty: A wake-up call. Philosophia Mathematica 13(2): 194–201CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kaplan D. (1989) Demonstratives: An essay on the semantics, logic, metaphysics and epistemology of demonstratives and other indexicals. In: Almog J., Perry J., Wettstein H. (eds) Themes from Kaplan. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 481–566Google Scholar
  24. Lewis, D. (1979). Attitudes De dicto and De se’. In D. Lewis (Ed.), Philosophical Papers (Vol. 1). Oxford University Press (1983).Google Scholar
  25. Lewis, D. (1980). A subjectivist’s guide to objective chance. Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability (Vol. 2). Berkeley, CA, USA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  26. Lewis D. (1994) Chance and credence: Humean supervenience debugged. Mind 103: 473–490CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lewis D. (2001) Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga. Analysis 61: 171–176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Meacham, C. (2008). Sleeping Beauty and the dynamics of De se belief. Philosophical Studies, 138(2), 245–269.Google Scholar
  29. Monton B. (2002) Sleeping Beauty and the forgetful Bayesian. Analysis 62: 47–53CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Monton B., Kierland B. (2005) Minimizing inaccuracy for self-locating beliefs. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 70(2): 384–395CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Perry J. (1979) The problem of the essential indexical. Nous 13: 3–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Schaffer, J. (ms) The Schmentencite way out: Towards an index-free semantics.Google Scholar
  33. Schwarz (ms) Changing minds in a changing world.Google Scholar
  34. Schervish M. J., Seidenfeld T., Kadane K. B. (2004) Stopping to reflect. Journal of Philosophy 101(6): 315–322Google Scholar
  35. Strevens M. (1995) A closer look at the ‘New Principle’. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 46(4): 545–561CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Teller T. (1976) Conditionalization, observation, and change of preference. In: Harper William, Hooker C. A. (eds) Foundations of probability theory, statistical inference, and statistical theories of science. D. Reidel, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  37. Titelbaum M. (2008) The relevance of self-locating beliefs. Philosophical Review 117(4): 555–606CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Van Fraassen B. C. (1984) Belief and the will. Journal of Philosophy 81: 235–256CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Van Fraassen B. C. (1999) A new argument for conditionalization. Topoi 18: 93–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Weintraub R. (2004) Sleeping Beauty: A simple solution. Analysis 64: 8–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Weisberg J. (2007) Conditionalization, reflection, and self-knowledge. Philosophical Studies 135: 179–197CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. White R. (2006) The generalized Sleeping Beauty problem: a challenge for thirders. Analysis 66: 114–119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Williams P. (1980) Bayesian conditionalisation and the principle of minimum information. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 31(2): 131–144CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.The City College of New YorkNew YorkUSA

Personalised recommendations